The Regime Fears World War

I've heard and read it many times now from people observing the various conflicts arising in the world, specifically the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Israel-Hamas conflict and the Sino-Taiwanese tensions that "they want to drag us into WWIII." However, a cursory look at the evidence as it stands tells a different story. I’m afraid that the Biden admin’s policies have been the exact opposite of trying to drag the world into world war. 

1. Instead of arming Ukraine fully, they’ve been slow-dripping armaments, mostly crap from the 90s that would have been decommissioned anyway (the missile that took out the Berdyansk airfield last night, for example, was manufactured in 1996). The ATACMS that have been delivered have had their range cut in half. The Biden admin seems to fear a decisive Ukrainian victory that’d shatter the Russian political formula and thus destabilise Russia or escalate the conflict. If “they” wanted to drag us into WWIII, “they” wouldn’t nickel and dime Ukraine on every weapons system.

2. Biden has deployed the US Navy in order to deter any other Muslim powers from intervening in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Not that Hezbollah or Iran seem particularly interested in it and frankly, it should have been obvious to everyone that Shias wouldn’t really be interested in bleeding for mostly Sunni Palestinians. I suspect that Iran is further being bribed and courted behind the scenes to both keep it out of this conflict but also re-integrate it into the international community (an old Obama admin policy which Biden might retry). If “they” wanted to drag us into WWIII, “they” would have provoked Iran and Hezbollah into attacking Israel. 

3. The Biden admin has begun disentangling the American economy from China. It has also affirmed its defensive commitment to Taiwan. It has encouraged Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan to protect their sovereign rights in the South China Sea against Chinese encroachment. It has, in short, postured strongly against China, letting it know that attacking Taiwan would mean a war not just with America and Taiwan, but likely with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines as well. This posturing, including Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is a form of deterrence, of demonstrating commitment and strength in the face of Chinese expansionism. If “they” wanted to drag us into WWIII, “they” would have appeared weak and indecisive and suckered the Chinese into attacking Taiwan. The Chinese don’t really need much prodding, seeing as how they have painted themselves into a corner by declaring that they’ll conquer Taiwan by 2048, a window which is rapidly closing, especially considering their own demographic crisis.

Indeed, nowhere do I see dangers of escalation, but rather, constant fear of escalation and constant attempts to deescalate, to mitigate the effects of conflicts, to contain them. Escalation has been used so prolifically by pro-Russian actors and commentators that it has almost become a dirty word. In the feeble minds of these people, every second that Ukraine doesn’t surrender to Russian genocide is “escalation.” Nevertheless, it’s a real concept and all we’ve seen from the Biden admin and its allies abroad is avoidance of bigger battles.

Of course it makes perfect sense for the Biden admin, its allies and their ultimate masters -the mythical “they” referred to in hushed tones- to be fearful of escalation and uninterested in war. They are, after all, in charge. Wars are crises and every major war has led to a renegotiation of the societal power structure. “They” especially fear a world war. After all, the current global order is the result of the last World War and the Nuremberg trials which followed it. A new world war could easily spiral out of control and become very dangerous for “them”. Elites with power who’ve been in power for a long time and whose mechanisms of power have become brittle are fearful of stressors to state capacity. 

Naturally, just because “they” are fearful of world war, it doesn’t follow that there won’t be world war. World events have a logic of their own and wars transpire because two competing states usually have mutually exclusive political formulae, especially if these political formulae include possession of certain territories, but even more importantly, if these formulae have certain claims which can only be proven true or false in war. For example, I believe that a general confrontation between China and the West is inevitable, for the simple reason that the current Chinese political formula is based on recovery from the Century of Humiliation and proving once and for all that China Numba One. Of course, this can only really be done through the game of princes, the ultimate proving ground of states - war. The Biden admin might want to avoid it, for good reason. America as it stands may be undone by a protracted conflict with China, even if China is undone as well. 

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