The Minimum Wage Debate Updated

What the minimum wage research shows in 2025 after years of state-level variation

The Research

The minimum wage research in 2025 -- the specific body of evidence that the extensive state-level variation in minimum wage since 2014 has produced and whose analysis the academic economists have been conducting -- is among the most politically charged and most carefully studied bodies of empirical evidence in the labour economics.

The Findings

The findings: the research that uses the most rigorous methods -- the synthetic control approaches, the border pair analyses, and the specific difference-in-differences approaches -- consistently finds employment effects that are smaller than the simple supply-demand model predicts, concentrated in the specific industries and the specific worker groups whose employment the minimum wage most directly affects.

Surf Revolt Coverage

Surf Revolt covers the minimum wage research because the accountability journalism of the libertarian labour market policy argument requires the honest engagement with the empirical evidence on what the minimum wage produces, and because the evidence is more nuanced than either the libertarian opponents or the progressive advocates typically acknowledge.

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