The Last Chance For Ukraine

Ukraine has only one chance to end the war – to seek an agreement with Chinese leadership. This is hinted at by practically all events and statements of the past weeks. The discussion will likely involve compensating Chinese business losses (the nationalization of the Ukrainian Motor Sich plant, China’s loss of purchased lands), allowing Chinese investors access to Ukrainian infrastructure and agriculture, and unblocking transport corridors from Asia to Europe. The negotiations will, of course, take place publicly on a Chinese platform, with China serving as the guarantor of Ukraine's security going forward. How this will be publicly formalized will be a matter of negotiation.

Of course, Russia in this case will achieve part of its demands, whether territorial or political (Russian language status, no NATO membership, demilitarization and denazification). However, the main achievement for Russia in such a scenario will be this: it demonstrates that it is capable of ensuring the security of investments in other countries (primarily Chinese investments) or punishing for non-compliance with agreements. Thus, it becomes a power partner for China, India, and other growing economies in various projects, instead of the UK, France, and the US.

This is an ideal scenario! Even Ukraine's accession to the EU would be welcomed in this case because it allows Eurasian logistics to connect directly to the European market. Ukraine itself would gain incredible opportunities in such a scenario.

What help can the West provide to Ukraine? Only military and financial support to sustain the war. Either this help will be stretched over time, turning Ukraine into a lifeless desert over the years of confrontation. Or the Western coalition will provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with aviation, air defense, and intelligence for a combined air-ground operation. But even in this case, even in the most successful scenario, it does not guarantee Ukraine victory. Suppose the Western coalition succeeds, breaches the Russian defense in depth, cuts through the land corridor to the Azov Sea, and reaches the 1991 borders. So what? Is the war won? Does Russia fall apart? No! Even if Russia does not use nuclear weapons, it can gather forces for a new offensive within a few months and return. It might even bring Korean and Chinese divisions. The economic situation in Russia also cannot be collapsed because it is supported by the Chinese economy.

So, no Western assistance to Ukraine ensures victory. Western assistance can only bring new troubles. There is no point in negotiating with Western intermediaries. Absolutely none! The Chinese simply will not come to such a forum. And besides them, no one can negotiate with Moscow.

Moreover, one must understand why the Chinese would want to end the Ukrainian conflict at all. As long as the Americans are occupied with Ukraine, China is pushing them out of their traditional sphere of influence in the East – Arabia, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Ocean. American allies in the region look at the tragedy of Ukraine and very much do not want to follow the same path. They understand that the US, in the event of a conflict, will not be able to help them, only add problems. And they reorient towards China. Sooner or later, even such reliable US allies as South Korea and Japan will come to an agreement with Beijing. Because only Beijing can influence North Korea. And Taiwan will soon negotiate as well.

While the war is ongoing in Ukraine, China is rapidly forming its "Community of Common Destiny." Why would it want to save Ukraine? Only in one case: if it is a public act of repentance for multiple breaches of agreements, which will signal to the whole world that meddling with Chinese money and obstructing China's path is dangerous. Whether in Africa, Asia, or even Latin America. It is very dangerous. One of China's partners might conduct a Special Military Operation (SMO).

You know, in recent days, there have been signs that the Ukrainian leadership has realized this. They have changed their rhetoric and are ready for negotiations on Chinese terms. And in the near future, we will see the result. Perhaps the US will not interfere too much, as they want to quickly rid themselves of this problem.