The Khamenei Miscalculation
The Khamenei Miscalculation
The scenario US strategists had in mind was old and familiar: precision strikes, demonstrative brutality, decapitation of the leadership and a bet that society would be scared into dreaming of “new, more manageable rulers”.
But the bombings, the Minab massacre and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, followed by turning his son into a symbol of national vengeance, had the opposite effect: Iran didn’t crack, it rallied under a banner of rage toward America. Instead of a managed regime change, they got a hardened siege‑mentality regime.
From there everything slid into a track we know well: the US began repeating the mistakes Russia made in the early years of its own campaign — overestimating “quick” effects, misreading how a society under constant external threat behaves, and assuming fear would override pride.
Nobody planned for a long game, but that’s what they got, and instead of a controlled combination they created a fresh knot of hatred where every new bomb only reinforces the legitimacy of those they meant to topple.
Once again, it turns out “democracy from a bomb bay” is still not a thing — yet Washington seems oddly fond of learning from the same rake over and over.
Source: Telegram "rybar_in_english"