The Intermarium & Fascism in Ukraine
FRANCISCVS
Eastern Europe acts as an onlooker to the conflicting NATO/EU and Russian spheres in Europe. The unipolar world order envisioned as the "End of history" by Francis Fukuyama failed to manifest after the end of the Cold War, in its place remains a multipolar world with many destabilised regions.
From the Eastern European perspective relying on the European Union as a source of income no longer seems as a viable long-term solution. The once stable EU erodes their way of life, national sovereignty and might cease to exist if it fractures. It appears that the EU will fail to provide for them in the future. As a long-term strategy the Eastern Europeans are going to form their own trade bloc, military alliance, sphere of influence etc in order to maintain their political stability, cultural integrity, financial well-being and infrastructure. The current Intermarium concept is a geopolitical third position of eurosceptics, it would allow an Eastern European bloc to become a competitive regional power that could ignore the hegemonic claims of Russia and Western "European-styled" (((globalists))).
The political instability in Western Europe due to the migrant crisis is going to accelerate the search for an alternative to the EU. In the Ukraine the sentiment of an Intermarium bloc is favourable among the third position ultranationalists. Were this Eastern European sphere to be implemented it would allow them to counter the Russians independent of EU funding and policies. Belarusian President Lukashenko himself knows it, he has talked of never allowing anything similiar to the Crimea grab happen in Belarus. He has been trying to assert independence since the "polite green men" appeared in Crimea, which is why he might take a political 180° turn in foreign policy or he would inevitably risk a western backed color revolution deposing his administration.
The aftershock of the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine has allowed Russia to maintain their naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea but they've potentially lost their long time regional partner in the process. The Maidan Revolution itself has cast a hard blow of political mobility in the Ukraine, the post Euromaidan President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has been disenfranchised by third position ultranationalists that initially supported the revolution. Despite these political extremists being some of the most fanatic supporters of the Euromaidan Revolution they were cast aside in the preceding 1.5 years by the kosher pro European Union nationalistic govt. The somewhat counter-revolutionary alternative for fascists in Ukraine would be to utilise the Intermarium concept in order to defeat their former Euromaidan revolutionary comrades turned political opponents where there is now a distinction between the two.
Below is an incomplete compilation of Ukrainian ultra-right nationalist organisations from 2014-2018, many of which participated during the war in Donbass. This is not a list of the participants in the Euromaidan Revolution. Many of these groups are ideological proponents of the multilayered Intermarium geopolitical concept where as European Unionists were involved in the Euromaidan Revolution.
Paramilitary organisations: elements of the Ukrainian volunteer battalions and paramilitary branches of various political organisations. These battalions contain 40k personnel overall (of 60k total Ukrainian troop strength deployed to the Donbass region). They also contain 32 motorized infantry battalions subordinate to the ministry of defence, 33 special tasks patrol police units (several units are under National Guard command) subordinate to the ministry of the interior, along with elements of multiple independent volunteer battalions containing 5k personnel not incorporated into govt agencies.
- Elements of the 18th Operational Regiment (Reinforced), Mariupol.
- Special Purpose Reinforced Battalion "Azov", Mariupol: Regiment sized unit of 3k personnel. National guard Gendarmerie under ministry of interior. Affiliated with National Corps.
- National Militia paramilitary: Gendarmerie affiliated with Azov and national corps) 600 personnel. Independent of govt agencies.
- Volunteer Ukrainian Corps: Multiple paramilitary units of Ukrainian volunteer battalions presumably containing hundreds, if not thousands of personnel. Affiliated with right sector. Independent of govt agencies.
- Battalion OUN: Battalion of "Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists". Independent of govt agencies.
Defunct independent units:
- Alliance of Patriotic Forces
- Ukrainian National Union: Affiliated with the Ukrainian National Union political branch and Social-National Assembly.
- European Action: was affiliated with Ukrainian National Union. (Status unknown, presumably defunct).
- Patriot of Ukraine: dissolved into Azov battalion, was affiliated with the Social-National Assembly.
Political organisations:
- Right sector 10k membership
- National corp 15k membership
- Ukrainian National Union
- Social-National Assembly (defunct)
- Svoboda 15k membership (2010)
- Ukrainian National Assembly (defunct, dissolved into right sector) 8k membership (2006)
- Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists
- Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists
- C14
- Tryzub (presumably defunct since 2014, dissolving into right sector)
The modern reincarnation of the Intermarium is an entente of sorts comprising several components.
Military:
- Central European defense cooperation: Mainly coordinates the police and military of six nations in response to the migrant crisis. They are instrumental in sealing off the Balkan route.
- V4 EU battlegroup: A joint military multinational force independent of NATO under Polish command, modeled off of the Intermarium concept. Affiliated with the Visegrád 4 group.
- Czech-Slovak EU battlegroup: A regiment sized military force coordinated by their respective EU member state participants.
- Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian Brigade: Multinational unit activated in response to the Russian annexation of Crimea. Not only was Poland intent on bringing Ukraine within their sphere but it was also a means to antagonise Russia which is against Ukraine joining NATO.
- Future 18th Iron Mechanised Division (Poland) although not integrated into this concept it is a reaction to the developing situation involving the Ukraine.
Political:
- Visegrád 4: An alliance between Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia with the aim of cooperation among the energy, economic, cultural and military spheres. They are intent on reaping the benefits of nuclear power. The military sphere was formed in response to Russian involvement in the Ukraine crisis.
Infrastructure & business:
- Three Seas Initiative: An Eastern and Central European forum connecting the Adriatic Sea, Baltic Sea, and Black Sea. Mainly focused on energy as well as transport and communications infrastructure.
Internal affairs:
- Salzburg Forum: Central-Eastern European Security partnership focused on internal security, border control, migration, and asylum, war on terrorism and organised crime.
In addition to the components of the intermarium the nation of Italy appears to be gravitating towards that sphere for cooperation involving border security. Despite Hungary having already been within this sphere of influence they maintained friendly relations with the Russians until they decided to support Ukraine against Russia due to the Kerch incident.