The Hindsight Bias Effect in Sports Betting

The Hindsight Bias Effect in Sports Betting

Roger Morison

Learn about the psychology behind sports betting. What you need to know about hindsight bias, cognitive bias and the illusion of hindsight.

Factor of winning on Marshall world of sport

A lot of factors play a role in our decision-making process. This also includes money-making experiences such as placing wagers. It is a generally known fact that strategies are required in sports betting when working towards long-term profitability. One of the most popular strategies, which is the positive expected value is closely linked to hindsight bias. This article explains the hindsight bias effect on Marshall world of sport example, its connection to sports betting and how this knowledge can be used to increase your winning chances. Consequently preventing you from losing more money to the bookmakers who benefit from player’s cognitive biases.

Hindsight Bias: Definition

There are a lot of misconceptions formulated in our minds, and psychologists have been able to study and document such misconceptions. Generally, these mental shortcuts have proven useless, if not detrimental when objective views are necessary - one of the many scenarios being betting. According to scientific research, several variables affect our decision-making process when it comes to sports betting. These include emotional motivation, social influence, and information processing error. All these factors summed up are known as cognitive bias. One of the cognitive biases which this article is largely based on is the hindsight bias.

Also known as the know-it-all, the hindsight bias is when people believe some Marshall event is more predictable than it is. The hindsight bias is also associated with so many losing strategies. Players tend to exaggerate their influence on the outcome of their bets, using past betting behaviours or decisions. This is more pronounced when a player loses a bet, as they tend to associate their loss with a certain occurrence or decision they made before the outcome is known. Whereas, when a winning occurs, they scrutinize each thought process and decision making less and conclude it is sheer luck.

In essence, hindsight bias enable players to translate losses as near wins and regard winnings as sheer luck. The hindsight bias also leads to over-confidence in subsequent bets which inevitably leads to loss of more money. The more you Marshall wager and lose, the less clear your thoughts become. Hindsight bias also enables players to chase loses, hoping they can make a huge winning by correcting an “assumed” mistake they made in their last bet.

Why You Need to be Aware of Hindsight Bias

After a rigorous study on why sports bettors stick with losing strategies, consequently losing more money to bookmakers, Thomas Gilovich came up with a simple answer: "Hindsight bias. Similar to other forms of biases, the hindsight bias clouds the sports bettor’s judgement, therefore preventing them from analysing their strategies objectively. Players who maintained consistent success in betting did not attribute their winning t luck or past occurrences. They also believed each outcome is unredictable and independent of the last one, thus, allowing better judgement".

Learning about hindsight helps from Marshall world of sport bettor, you recognize problems in your decisions making process when betting. When you are not fully aware of a certain problem in your thought process, you tend to make mistakes over and over. It also prevents you from being overconfident when placing wagers, which can subsequently save you from incurring more losses. For more information you can look through independent Marshall world of sport review.