The Fourth Turning

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What’s in it for me? Look at American history from a different perspective.

First comes the High. In the wake of a Crisis, morale is upbeat, institutions are strong, and communities flourish as individualism weakens.

Then comes the Awakening. People begin to revolt against the old civic order and supplant it with new values.

Next, an Unraveling. Much the opposite of a High, individualism begins to rise while institutions weaken. The new values determined in the Awakening begin to replace the old regime.

Finally, the Crisis. Society is in a state of upheaval. The old social order disintegrates, hardship besets the population, and political and economic trust is at an extreme low. Yet, in its wake, new seeds of social rebirth begin to grow, bringing about another eventual High. And so the story repeats.

These are what Neil Howe and William Strauss call the four Turnings of history: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. It’s a model with which we can understand the flux and flow of history –⁠ the way it follows particular patterns that repeat regularly over time. In this Blink to The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe and William Strauss, we’ll take a deep dive into what each of these four Turnings signifies, which generations occupy the roles within them, and how you may prepare for the Turnings to come.

In this Blink, you’ll learn

• why time is more like a spiral than a line;
• how history shapes the character of each generation; and
• how to prepare for a Crisis.

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History unfolds in a cyclical pattern.

Humankind is obsessed with time –⁠ measuring it, dividing it, observing it, and most recently, controlling it.

Throughout the course of our species’s history, humans have developed three distinct ways of thinking about time. The first is chaotic time, which was the dominant theory during our primitive days. In this view, historical events occur randomly. There’s no point in trying to determine the causes of events or to try and improve society because history doesn’t follow a path and there’s nothing people can do to influence it.

The second theory of time, which became prevalent during the classical period, was cyclical time. The idea was that events occurred in cycles, much like the rotation of the earth, the orbit of the moon, or the procession of the zodiac. Humans can participate in and shape history by performing the right actions at the right times, thus winning favor from the gods. As such, this theory gives people more agency than in chaotic time.

Finally, the third theory of time –⁠ linear time –⁠ became the dominant force alongside the Western monotheistic religions –⁠ Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. In this version of time, history occurs as a straight line –⁠ a story with an absolute beginning and end with events following each other logically. This theory enabled humanity to liberate itself completely from the shackles of fate. People didn’t need to believe anymore that they were powerless in the face of external events because they could influence the story directly.

But linear time also cuts people off from natural cycles and their relationship to something greater than themselves. For example, by suppressing the flow of a river by damming it, we might think we’re stopping a flood cycle. But we may instead be simply ensuring that the cycle is less frequent but more devastating.

No Western nation denies natural rhythms and proclaims its freedom from them more than America. Perhaps for that reason, those rhythms play out even more dramatically there than elsewhere.

Like other Western societies, America follows the saecular cycle, a temporal sequence of a hundred years –⁠ around the length of a human life span. This length of time is called a saeculum, and it contains patterns that repeat. Within each saeculum is a Turning – a span of about 20 years. This corresponds to about the length of one phase of human life, from childhood to elderhood. In miniature, a saeculum is like a year, while a turning is like a season.

All together, the four turnings of a saeculum comprise its four seasons of growth, maturation, entropy, and decay. In the next chapter, we’ll go into more depth as to what characterizes each of these periods.

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Every saeculum consists of a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling, and a Crisis.

Winter follows autumn and summer follows spring. Every year, the seasons repeat in the same pattern. You’ll never find winter following summer. In the same way, the Turnings within each saeculum follow a particular pattern every single time they occur.

The pattern begins with a High. You can think of this like the season of spring. A High always follows a Crisis, so the fact that the Crisis has ended means that the nation’s mood is now upbeat and triumphant. Government is powerful and effective, the gap between rich and poor narrows, productivity grows, the economy prospers, and society, in general, becomes more community-minded. On the other hand, Highs are characterized by a conformist culture, with the nation succeeding in public cooperation but failing in personal fulfillment. Additionally, people tend to overlook or ignore injustice, preferring not to rock the boat.

The last High in America occurred immediately after the Crisis of World War II. Victory over Japan was declared in 1945; the High began in 1946. Those who lived through this period generally remember it as “Pax Americana” and the “Best Years.” The nation’s leaders pushed society toward greater order, stability, conformity, and institution-building.

However, this mood couldn’t last forever. Cracks began to appear, and in 1963, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated, sounding the opening bell of the second of the saecular seasons –⁠ the Awakening. This season is most like summer, oscillating between the extremes of thunderstorms and bright sunshine.

In 1946, the victory in Japan had led to a postwar baby boom. These “victory babies” were just coming of age when Kennedy was assassinated, the Beatles exploded in popularity, and Berkeley’s Free Speech movement began railing against the academic establishment. This period is remembered today as the Consciousness Revolution.

As it was in past Awakenings, this one was characterized by a newfound focus on spiritual renewal, inner individual desires, and cultural upheaval. Young adults came to view authority as a force that crushed the individual, the police an institution that brutalized the poor, and academia as a killer of creativity. Spiritual authenticity began to be favored over social discipline. Though this meant that society’s inner life was strengthened, institutions could no longer maintain order. Violence and chaos were the result.

In Awakenings, both the demand for and the supply of order falls, while spirits rise. However, institutions begin to lose the ability to deliver peace and prosperity. As a result, people find themselves in an Unraveling, the Turning most similar to the season of autumn.

This saeculum’s Unraveling was the Culture Wars. It began in 1984 after the triumph of the Awakening. Antiestablishment and pro-individual sermons had originally been the hallmark of left-wing hippies. But by the end of the Awakening, Republicans had delightfully taken up this messaging too. President Ronald Reagan stood against everything the Consciousness Revolution represented at its beginning. But now, he too was a champion of individual rights, a rejector of the establishment, and a representation of the primacy of the self.

During this Unraveling, people’s trust in government fell even lower than in the Awakening. Meanwhile, their trust in the individual was even higher. Broad, overarching national narratives were rejected in favor of highly personal ones. As a result, people began to seek out those who would validate their experiences. Social niching based on sex, race, religion, income, and hobbies began, causing public opinion to become even more tribal and polarized. Meanwhile, the economy faltered and people became cynical and focused on short-term gain over long-term benefit. Risk-taking and recklessness were prevalent.

The authors were writing during the second half of the Unraveling, in the 1990s. They predicted that as the Unraveling progressed, sparks would begin to fly – perhaps a fiscal crisis, a terrorist attack, or a pandemic. One of these sparks would then catch, triggering a chain reaction of responses which would lead to further emergencies. These emergencies would reveal America’s vulnerabilities in the areas it neglected during the Unraveling. Calls for action would increase; perhaps the fiscal crisis, the attack, or the disease would be quelled for a while. Yet the nation would be firmly in its fourth Turning: the Crisis. This is the saecular winter, the time of death and decay.

As the Crisis period progressed, the authors imagined, societal trust would eventually implode. Elders would suddenly realize their failure to save money and the unsustainability of their public promises. Midlifers would learn the hard way that the average income had stagnated. And youth would come of age facing debts, tax burdens, and other barriers to their future success. The government would have become fiscally overcommitted and any solutions it promised would hardly be believed. The Crisis would eventually reach a climax, which could involve any number of forms of distress – economic, social, cultural, technological, ecological, political, or military.

Yet, simultaneously, the Crisis era would inspire great leaders to give speeches that would be remembered far into the future. New political visions would be forged and framed. A new generation of youths would summon the courage to fight and die for a communal cause, and the Spirit of America would return. At the end of the Crisis, trust would be reborn – and a new High would follow.

Americans tend to think of their country as outside of or immune to nature. They think that the course of their history can and has been determined by a battle that was barely won or the assassination of a president. Yet many of those seemingly random events are in fact linked to the saecular cycle –⁠ the types of events that occur within them and, even more so, how people respond to them. It turns out we can predict that, too –⁠ which you’ll learn more about in the next Blink.

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Turnings shape people into four distinct archetypes.

Imagine an average person raised in a warm climate versus an average person raised in a cold climate. Ignore things like skin tone or eye color –⁠ focus on personality. For the warm climate person, you’re probably imagining someone extraverted and gregarious. For the cold climate person, you might be thinking about someone more introverted or conscientious.

The bottom line is: we know that the “season” in which we grow up has an impact on our personality. In the same way, people are shaped by the historical “seasons” –⁠ the Turnings –⁠ that they live through as children and throughout the rest of their lives. The result is that we end up with generations, well-defined groups of people, every 20 years or so. Since the seasons arrive in a fixed pattern, so too do generations.

It’s possible to identify four distinct archetypes –⁠ recurring qualities or types of people –⁠ that characterize every generation in Western society since the Wars of the Roses in fifteenth-century England. Each archetype has distinct values, perspectives, and behaviors that result from how history shaped them –⁠ and how they, in turn, will go on to shape history. Those archetypes are Heroes, Prophets, Nomads, and Artists.

Hero generations are born and raised by Prophet parents during an Unraveling and come of age during a Crisis. As young adults, they help to shepherd a society through its struggle and usher in a High. They are courageous and self-sacrificing. Then, as they reach midlife, they begin to show an excess of pride and demand to be rewarded for their efforts. The last Hero generation in America was the GI generation, born from 1901 to 1924 – these are the people who fought and won the battles of World War II. Today’s Hero generation is the Millennials, born from 1982 to the late 1990s.

As the Heroes are helping to quell the Crisis, Artist generations are being raised by overprotective Nomads. They become sensitive young adults during the High, and they tend to be deferential to the Heroes who fought the battles of their childhood. During midlife, they become indecisive leaders and eventually empathic elders. The last Artists were the Silent Generation, born in the midst of World War II, too young to be drafted. Generation Z, born from around 1996 onward, are today’s Artists.

When Heroes reach childbearing age, they give birth to a Prophet generation, whose childhood occurs during a High. As children, they are indulged, and then, as young adults, they assert their morals. Rebelling against the system established by their elders, they act as the crusaders of a new world order. During midlife, they become moralistic; as elders, they serve as wise leaders who help guide the society through the next Crisis. Today’s Prophets are the Boomers, born in the wake of World War II from 1943 to 1960.

Finally, Nomads grow up under protected by their Artist parents during an Awakening. During this period, adults are discovering themselves and culture is convulsing, leaving children alone and alienated, essentially raising themselves. During the Unraveling, they come of age as pessimistic young adults, become pragmatic leaders during a Crisis, and then age into tough and cautionary elders during the High. The previous Nomad generation was the Lost Generation, born in the 20 years prior to the GIs. Today’s Nomad generation are 13ers, otherwise known as Generation X, born from 1961 to 1981.

The constellation of generations during each Turning has an impact on the way it unfolds. For example, consider the transition from the American High of the 1940s and ’50s into the Awakening of the 1960s and ’70s. Toward the end of that period, elder Nomads started to become reactionary, impeding the ambitions of the Heroes. Heroes in midlife became full of hubris, wishing to build an ever-greater world. Young adult Artists began to chafe at their role as silent helpmates of the Heroes. And child Prophets began to sense that the Heroes’ new social order was devoid of a spiritual core. Thus the Awakening began.

Each archetype can only occupy its former role for one life cycle. In each phase, no generation will accept the role its predecessor assumed at the same age. Prophet Boomers would never be acquiescent helpmates like the Artist Silent; Hero GIs would never be cautious stewards like the Nomad Lost. Every two decades, the current elders disappear, a new generation of children arrives, and the generations in between transform their society. This is how archetypes shape history.

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Prepare for Turnings by acting in accordance with the season.

The saecular winter –⁠ the Crisis –⁠ is a dire period of time. It is unavoidable and inevitable. Does that mean there’s nothing any of us can do about it?

Not necessarily. Just like in farming, there’s always a time to reap and a time to sow. The same is true when it comes to weathering the Turnings of the saecula. The key is to recognize when which behaviors are appropriate. It’s useless at best and dangerous at worst to try and avoid unwanted seasons. Instead, prepare for and accept them. Most importantly, participate in seasonal activities while avoiding unseasonal ones.

What might that look like, exactly?

Take, for example, an Unraveling prior to a Crisis. During this period, we should cultivate alliances with people who hold different perspectives and visions. We should avoid polarization at all costs and instead work to elevate our moral standards. Decadent and nihilistic cultures are prone to sliding into fascism. If the media or public doesn’t exercise caution, it becomes all too easy for a despotic outsider to step in and impose control.

Likewise, we should focus on fostering teamwork and self-sacrifice within our local communities. We should improve functions like schools, housing, and transportation, create public spaces, and expect citizens to attend meetings. People of different ethnicities should be encouraged to intermingle, and group niching –⁠ whether it’s through segregated college dorms or walled suburban enclaves –⁠ should be discouraged at all costs. However, we should hold off on trying to foster this spirit on a national scale. Building a sense of civic community and battling against local dysfunction should be the main priorities.

On a deeply personal level, diversification is key.

When Crises catalyze, survivalists with a broad range of skills and knowledge will have an advantage over those whose skills are niche or over-specialized. What will happen during the crisis is totally unpredictable –⁠ so learn other languages, familiarize yourself with a wide range of technologies, and if you have a business, build safety nets that will help it withstand a total alteration of market conditions. Assume that your personal financial safety nets like pensions or Social Security will dry up to nothing, and invest in equities and foreign markets. All of this is to ensure that no one severe outcome –⁠ such as inflation, deflation, a market crash, or a default on the national debt –⁠ can completely destroy your assets.

By following these seasonal patterns and acting in accordance with them, you increase your power to influence history –⁠ or, if not, at least be able to hold steady as its waves break on the shore. And if society as a whole consciously prepares itself for these seasons –⁠ what then? The power to alter the course of history is possible, to steer it in the right direction, avoid total catastrophe, and set the stage for future Turnings.

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Final summary

The most important thing to take away from all this is:

History progresses in the form of a spiral, progressing forward yet eternally following the same four-season saecula which occur repeatedly over time. First, there is a High, then an Awakening, next an Unraveling, and finally a Crisis, populated by four generational archetypes: Heroes, Prophets, Nomads, and Artists. The best way to weather all four seasons is to participate in seasonal behavior and activities and avoid unseasonal ones.

So, here’s a quick piece of actionable advice to take with you:

Cultivate a support system within your family.

During a Crisis, having a support system is essential –⁠ and family is the ultimate. Other supports, socially and institutionally, will falter and crumble during this period of time. An interconnected and multigenerational web of relatives can help serve as a safety net. If you’re a wealthy elder, for instance, you might start transferring assets to your heirs in order to avoid the risk of estate taxation later. If you’re young or you don’t have a partner or children, be sure to establish an alternative family structure with neighbors, friends, and coworkers. Whatever you do, don’t find yourself socially stranded.