The Durability Curve — Research Archive
The Durability CurveAI infrastructure research. Finding compute bottlenecks before they are priced. Five Laws of Durable Systems framework.
Below is the full archive of published research. New pieces added regularly.
Latest Research
The Five Laws of Durable Systems Applied to NVIDIA
A framework-based reading of NVIDIA's Q1 FY2027 earnings through all five laws — Bottleneck Migration, Difficulty Is Load-Bearing, Architecture Outlives Content, Instruments Over Theory, and The Targeting Problem. Each law with a falsification trigger. Published May 15, 2026.
Three Signals the Market Is Missing on NVDA
Five days out from NVDA earnings (May 20), three non-obvious signals: H200 China clearance as permission-not-action, the Culper short thesis and structural compliance risk, and the photonics supply chain as a cross-signal. Published May 15, 2026.
The Five Laws of Durable Systems
The full framework: five laws derived from 18 months of cross-domain research across neuroscience, markets, AI, biology, design, history, operations, and philosophy. Each law with its core claim, investment lens, and falsification criteria. Published May 15, 2026.
The Nuclear SMR Bottleneck
HALEU fuel supply as the next AI constraint. Why the bottleneck in nuclear-powered data centers isn't the reactors — it's the fuel. Centrus Energy, Oklo, Vistra, and the falsification triggers. Published May 15, 2026.
Premium Research
Extended reports with falsification triggers, supply chain verification, and options positioning are available on Gumroad:
- NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings Research Report (£9) — 36-page report with falsification triggers at $79-80B revenue threshold
- The Nuclear SMR Bottleneck (£12) — Full HALEU supply chain analysis with ticker-specific falsifiers
- The Five Laws of Durable Systems (£37) — Complete framework with portfolio application guide
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Independent research. Not investment advice.