The Crypto Vigilante Crypto Market Update – (September 21, 2020)
Digital Migration
Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The BTC bulls are under pressure to start this last full week of September as weakness from the US equity markets and the precious metals complex (due to DXY strength) combines with technical deterioration following another failure around the $11,100 level to produce selling that has taken price down to the low-$10,000’s today. No doubt this move is worrisome from a shorter-term perspective and opens the door to more downside from current levels, although longer-term we’re still in a bullish consolidation that we think resolves to the upside by the end of next month.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 6-hour chart to start the week where we can see that resistance in the lower supply area and just below the now bearish 200 SMA was too much for the bulls to overcome over the weekend, which is one of the main reasons why price is moving lower into the near-term OTE long zone (between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels) on recharging momentum oscillators and spiking sell volumes, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the next few days. The break of the 50 SMA today, the falling 100 SMA, and bearish shorter-term market structure also suggest challenging conditions for the bulls for a while, however the aforementioned momentum oscillators are getting close to fully recharged, the A/D line has not taken that big of a hit (yet), and price is in an area that should be attractive to short-term traders so stabilization and strength from this level could easily spark a bigger rally above strong resistance in the low-$11k’s sooner than expected.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price has fallen back to the top of the upper demand area where it and the 50 SMA are providing some support to the bulls despite a very weak US equity market, fairly decent news for the bulls overall. The steady volume indications and the rising 200 SMA also confirm that the longer-term outlook is still favorable for the bulls, however momentum is still recharging, the 50 SMA is now falling, and shorter-term market structure is deteriorating so we still cannot rule out a retest of the $9825 regional low, or even of the $9k area where the 200 SMA sits, before the bull market resumes.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is holding up surprisingly well today despite weakness in the broader crypto space and overhead resistance in the form of the lower supply area, all while the moving averages continue to rise, so perhaps we’re getting closer to an upside breakout than previously anticipated. On the other hand, almost overbought momentum oscillators, lackluster volume indications, and a lack of near-term support just below the market make us think that we’ll get at least one more move lower before a breakout above 0.0090 indeed materializes (one that we’ll be buyers of for the longer-term).
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has weakened back below $90 today which has broken the 50 SMA while the momentum oscillators begin to recharge with lots of room to run to the downside, not great news for the bulls moving forward. The current candle formation and near-term market structure are also a bit worrisome from a shorter-term perspective therefore we cannot rule out a spike down to the $80 region before the bulls return in earnest. That said, the volume indications are still bullish and the rising 100 SMA is sitting around that $80 level so we would add to positions in that area if given the chance over the coming days.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BSV/BTC
TradingView OKEx BSV/BTC daily linear chart
BSV/BTC is on the verge of another breakdown to start this week as price has moved down to new regional lows near the bottom of the upper demand area on discouraging volume indications and still falling moving averages, so we continue to see no reason to get involved with this one at current levels. The fact that we’re not seeing a bounce despite oversold momentum is also not a great sign for the bulls, so we think a test of the next demand area in the 0.011’s is likely over the coming days.
BSV/USD
TradingView OKEx BSV/USDT daily linear chart
BSV/USD has been weakening over the past few days but has yet to put in a new local low below $141, likely due to some favorable momentum indications, although we think the path of least resistance remains lower so we’re expecting a breakdown in the not too distant future. Bearish market structure, falling moving averages, and deteriorating volume indications are also pointing to a downward bias over the shorter-term, so we want to continue to stay on the sidelines in this one until a reversal is confirmed on the daily chart above.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
LINK/BTC
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC daily linear chart
The past week of price action has been brutal for the LINK/BTC bulls as price has consistently moved lower reaching new regional lows over the weekend and today on bearish candle formations that have obliterated shorter-term market structure while the volume indications deteriorate, all suggesting that even lower prices are likely before a sustainable bottom develops. The break of the 100 SMA yesterday and the lack of support below the bottom of the adjusted upper demand area also don’t bode well for the bulls this week, although a successful retest of the 0.00080 level could easily spark a bounce back above 0.00090 so shorters need to be careful here as well.
LINK/USD
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
LINK/USD is now in no man’s land today following a break of the previous upper demand area, as well as the 100 SMA, on a relatively large bearish candle formation that has confirmed bearish market structure moving forward, all bad news for the bulls over the coming days. The deteriorating volume indications and the lack of support until the $8 region are also bearish in nature, so we’ll stay out of this one until we see a reaction down at or near the top of the upper demand area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!