The Crypto Vigilante Crypto Market Update – (September 16, 2020)

Digital Migration

Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

With the BTC price heading up to and above the $11,000 level today as expected the bulls are still in control at this time, although the new $11,100 local high is awfully close to significant short-term resistance right at that level while the near-term technicals get pretty stretched to the upside, so we think we think some caution is warranted heading into the back half of the week. That said, we now fully expect a retracement to spark a new higher low above $10k which will recharge the market and set the stage for a test of longer-term resistance in the $11.5 – $12k range later this month or early next.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart

We’ll return to the 4-hour chart today for a closer look at the shorter-term setup where we can see that price is now very close to the bottom of the lower supply area, the falling 200 SMA, and the 61.8% Fibonacci level, hence the pause we’re currently seeing around $11k, and the momentum oscillators are very close to officially overbought so we think a pullback is likely in the near future. The volume profile notch around $11,200 will also be a problem for the bulls moving forward which is why we think a local top materializes between current levels and $11.2k, although the still strong A/D line is telling us that dips are for buying so we’ll view a cool-off as an opportunity to add at lower levels.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart

Next we’ll revisit the daily chart where we can see that price is still rallying off of the sub-$10k lows from a few weeks ago on favorable momentum and volume indications so perhaps there is still a bit more gas left in the tank before a fill-up is needed around $11.2k. That said, price is still trading in between the shorter-term moving averages, the upper one of which we expect to act as resistance soon, so we think some patience will pay off over the coming days when price dips back down to find new near-term support (likely in the $10,500 region).

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/BTC

TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart

Resistance in the lower supply area was once again too much for the bulls to handle overnight thus leading to the selloff back down below 0.0082 that we see materializing today on a very bearish candle formation that is turning market structure more worrisome due to a potential lower high, not great news for the bulls heading into the back half of the workweek. The falling momentum oscillators and the deteriorating volume indications are also suggesting some challenges for the bulls for the remainder of the week, although all of the moving averages are still rising with a demand area below the market so we think there is a good chance of yet another higher low that could easily be the one that sparks the breakout we’ve been waiting for.

XMR/USD

TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart 

XMR/USD is still treading water between the bottom of the lower supply area and the supportive 50 SMA on mixed candle formations and uncertain short-term market structure, all pointing to more choppy action around the $90 level moving forward. That said, the momentum and volume indications remain fairly encouraging and the moving averages all continue to rise despite this correction so we continue to think that a slow and bumpy ride up to the $100 area is likely over the medium-term. 

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook

BCH/BTC

TradingView Binance BCH/BTC daily linear chart

Given the price action in BCH/BTC over the past several days we can now add a new demand area below the market coming off of the spike lows from a few weeks ago, a good sign for the bulls overall, as are the momentum oscillators which are recharged and potentially bullishly divergent. Having said that, we still think that the bears are in control for now given the falling moving averages, the deteriorating A/D line, and a lack of a major reaction on this retest of the top of the new demand area, so we think that there is a fairly good chance at new lows below 0.0199 before a sustainable bottom is established down the road.

BCH/USD

TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD daily linear chart 

BCH/USD continues to consolidate in the upper demand area on a hodgepodge of candle formations and still highly uncertain longer-term market structure, so we think staying neutral and on the sidelines remains the right play for now. The now universally bearish moving averages are also telling us to be cautious on this one moving forward, although increasingly favorable momentum and volume indications are intriguing in terms of longer-term buys near the $200 support level.

Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

DCR/BTC

TradingView Binance DCR/BTC daily linear chart

We’ll wrap up by revisiting the DCR/BTC chart for the first time in a while where we can see that the technicals aren’t looking too good for the bulls at this time considering that price is now at new regional and cycle lows which means market structure is firmly bearish while the volume indications remain discouraging, so we want to stay patient with this one before thinking about adding to positions. The falling moving averages and lackluster momentum oscillators aren’t helping matters for the bulls either, so we’re expecting lower prices from here before a sustainable bottom of any kind materializes. 

DCR/USD

TradingView Binance DCR/USD daily linear chart 

DCR/USD looks better than the BTC pair above given that price is holding the upper demand area while the volume indications stay decent and the momentum oscillators are slightly divergent (and almost fully recharged), so the bulls are still in this fight for the time being. That said, all of the moving averages are now falling, market structure doesn’t look great, and price action is anemic to say the least so we’ll stay neutral until more signs of directional clarity emerge later this year.

Good Luck, Good Trading!