The Chinese Economy and Middle Income Trap

The Chinese Economy and Middle Income Trap

Violet Woolf

What the middle income trap risk looks like for China and what the evidence shows

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The Risk

The middle income trap risk for China -- the specific economic development challenge that the countries whose growth has stalled in the middle income range have experienced and that the economic model transition from investment-driven to innovation-driven and consumption-driven growth requires navigating -- is the development economics question that the Chinese growth slowdown of the past three years has made relevant in ways that the growth trajectory of the previous decade did not.

The Evidence

The evidence: China income per capita at purchasing power parity is approximately 22,000 dollars, placing it in the upper-middle income category. The innovation transition -- the development of the domestic technology frontier that makes innovation-led growth possible -- is more advanced in China than in most middle income countries that have encountered the trap. The consumption transition -- the shift from the investment-driven growth model to the domestic consumption-driven model that mature economies depend on -- is the specific challenge that the high household savings rate and the limited social safety net have made more difficult.

Apple Daily UK Coverage

Apple Daily UK covers the Chinese middle income trap risk because the accountability journalism of the Chinese economic situation requires examining the structural challenge that the growth slowdown is producing, and because the outcome of the transition is the most consequential economic development question of the current decade.

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