The Baseball Trade Deadline Analytical Framework

How to evaluate trade deadline moves using probability and expected value

The Framework

The baseball trade deadline analytical framework: the acquiring team probability of reaching the playoffs before and after the trade given current record and strength of schedule. The probability of winning the World Series conditional on reaching the playoffs, and how the acquired player affects that probability. The prospect cost in terms of future expected wins.

The Immediate Reaction Problem

The media environment of the deadline produces instant reaction that precedes the analytical work required to evaluate the trade accurately. The player who costs three top-100 prospects and produces a one-percent improvement in World Series probability is a different transaction than the player who costs three mid-level prospects for a five-percent improvement.

On Deck News Coverage

The On Deck News covers trade deadline moves with the analytical framework because the accountability journalism of baseball transactions requires the post-deadline assessment against pre-deadline projections.

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