The Art of Wéiqí: China Swarms New Caledonia

The American hyperpower wanes, China's newly renovated hegemony emerges to fill the vacuum. Beginning with the scramble against America's allies. France's Pacific island dependency, New Caledonia finds itself a key target near the end of a year defined by perpetual crises.

At the start of 2020, hysteria was unleashed by a new looming plague originating from China. While entire countries went into lockdown, this was juxtaposed by defrosted geopolitical manoeuvres in the form of armed conflicts and aggressive power projections. Echoing throughout history, geography has been responsible for the same sites of conflict time and again, disregarding great industrial earthworks. It is of no surprise that China has filled the footsteps of securing the old Imperial Japanese objectives. In WWII, Japan's "Naval General Staff wanted to cut the sea links between Australia and the United States by capturing New Caledonia, Fiji, and Samoa." Meanwhile, "A US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report from 2018 found that a Chinese military base in the South Pacific could prevent US military access to the region and affect key US allies New Zealand and Australia."

"The pandemic has brought back the pacific region into the spotlight once again. The last time it was in this position was during WWII as the Axis and Allied powers fought each other for controlling the region. 75 years later the stakes remain same, but Australians and her allies have their work cut out."

-OpEd By Jonathan Pryke & Richar Mcgregor for Nikkei Asian Review and Armaan Srivastava for The EurAsian Times

The Road to New Caledonian Independence

Currently, New Caledonia is at the economic level of New Zealand. But only because of French assistance. Like many other colonies of ages past, the White-European settlers built up these countries. The independence-seeking Kalaks are aware of this. Blind separation from France would result in their living standards regressing to the post-colonial mean for their region, such as that of the Solomon Islands. In order to halt the decline of living standards, they seek out China as their preffered regional power. This is because the Chinese investments in the nearby Vanuatu islands serves as an example to New Caledonians. They are willing to retain living standards for the sacrifice of becoming debt-trapped by China as they hold the power of a mere pebble in comparison. True to their nickname in French: "Le caillou". (a small pebble).

As for the economy of New Caledonia, the main export is Nickel, of which 1/4th of the world's supply originates from here. Which is gruadually becoming cheaper as it becomes less rare in the global supply. Tourism consisting of Australians & New Zealanders, but also French mainlanders. And then of course the fishing industry. New Caledonia has a large EEZ because it is an archipelago, however, most of the marine wildlife is not yet exploited. But all of this does not give the island "true" financial life. New Caledonia is reliant on taxes paid by metropilitan France to support the overseas territories. So for the Kalaks, the island is an economic failure. This was already the case since the 1960's as native Nickel deposits were discovered at a time when the prices were better. These consequences have driven France towards reliquishing ownership, a successful vote to leave via the next referendum will decide this.

"We are not afraid of China. It's France, not China, that colonised us. It doesn't bother us to any great extent. Jean-Marie Tjibaou said thirty years ago that independence means managing interdependence. We are not only looking towards Europe, it is far from here, we are not going to act today as if China did not exist ".

-said the independence leader Roch Wamytan, president of the Congress of New Caledonia.

China might be able to turn a profit if they choose to disregard living standards, but their goal is not an economic interest in taking this expensive, tiny, two-hour-drive island. A new Infrastructure program would cost them more than paying directly for the nickel and fishing licences. The main interest is to have a strategic ally close to Australia and New Zealand and to contest a great martime crossroads linking them to the U.S.. That's why they are ready to pay for an island that would secure an additional U.N. vote for China. New Caledonia is the last Pacific island chain China needs to control to ensure their hegemonic monopoly over the island community of Melanesia. This strategic location offers a means to encircle Australia, gain access to Antarctica and a fishing route to Latin America. China mostly interferes in the Pacific regions of Latin America. However, they defer many local affairs for the whole of the region to the Forum of São Paulo.

China's Fishing Thalassocracy

A Chinese fishing fleet has been accused by conservation group Oceana of "pillaging" the waters off the Galapagos Islands for squid. The fleet is made up of more than 400 fishing vessels, of which 11 are currently in Chile's EEZ, according to the Chile's navy. When the Chinese fishing vessels moved south to waters off Peru, they again sparked anger - this time among Peruvian fishermen worried that the large Chinese fleet would overfish the squid they rely on for their livelihood.

-The Chilean navy says it is closely monitoring 11 Chinese fishing vessels in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ)

Conservatives in Chile think China orchestrated or took advantage of the recent unrest known as the "estallido social" (social outbreak). Throughout the chaos, it was China that discreetly bought Chilean companies.

The journalist Richard McGregor calls it China Inc. A Chilean specialist defines it this way: “China is a single large company. It is a great monopoly ”.

The Sun never sets on communist China's, "Dengist" state-capitalist empire. From the Belt & Road Initiative to the String of Pearls, debt-trapping Africa and Forum of São Paulo it is a wide net which China has cast. But how exactly do they manage this? Through the Art of Wéiqí.

Wéiqí in Chinese Stratagem: "Salami Slicing"

The Chinese implemented strategies for their geopolitical advancement are outlined by the SIRPA researcher paper "Guanxi, Weiqi and Chinese Strategic Thinking", by Zhongqi Pan

"The idea that Weiqi is closely related to Chinese strategic thinking has been increasingly shared by Americans, particularly thanks to the unique contribution made by the US former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger. In his book, On China, Kissinger provided a strong endorsement to understanding the strategic thinking of the Chinese leadership by looking into Weiqi. Taking up Lai’s enlightening discussions, Kissinger has interpreted China’s foreign strategy as a strategy of Weiqi."

"It has been very common for Chinese strategists to credit China’s strategic thinking to the game of Weiqi, as well as to the Art of War by Sun Tzu. The guiding principles of Weiqi have been remarkably expressed by the central tenets in the Art of War. For example, the master player of Weiqi should clearly understand both the strengths and weaknesses of himself as much as those of his opponent on the board. This is strikingly similar to one of the most famous arguments of Sun Tzu: “So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss. If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose. If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.” As further discussed below, the Chinese way of gaming in Weiqi and the Chinese strategic thinking revealed by the Art of War is very much consistent. Arguably, if one knows how to play Weiqi, it will be very easy to understand the Art of War, and vice versa. The Chinese thus strongly advocate studying Chinese strategies by understanding Weiqi, which is a crystallization of China’s centuries-old gaming culture."

American contemporaries have dubbed these Wéiqí-like applications to China's modus operandi as so-called "Cabbage tactics" and "Chinese Salami-Slicing". The earliest incarnation of the salami-slicing strategy, which led to China gaining control, step by step between 1954 and 1962, of the Switzerland-size Aksai Chin plateau of the original princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. An emboldened China then went on to seize the Paracel Islands in 1974, the Johnson Reef in 1988, the Mischief Reef in 1995 and the Scarborough Shoal (2012). - "China's salami-slice strategy". The Japan Times. -Brahma Chellaney

"Today, the centerpiece of China's salami slicing is the clever use of large fleets of white hulled boats like fishing vessels and maritime surveillance ships to advance China's territorial claims in very small increments, ergo the "salami slicing" metaphor. Of course, always waiting over the coercive horizon are China's gray hulled warships should they be needed. To see how China’s salami slicing now works – and how it could well drag the United States into a conflict – we need look no further than China's successful taking of Scarborough Shoal in 2012 from the Philippines."

-American economist and author Peter Navarro, Crouching Tiger: What China's Militarism Means for the World, 2015

The Mandate of Heaven

Wéiqí is a slow-paced, often tedious challenge, it encapsulates the national characteristics of the Chinese mindset. One that is steeped in an ancient, seemingly permanent culture guided by perennial principles. Modern China has adapted these strategies to fulfill the interests of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The historical Mandate of Heaven from China's past has been retained in all but name. The status of a ruler fit to lead now pertains to General Secretary of the CCP. To the Chinese people they are simply under a new dynasty, holding the current leadership to the same standards of folk superstitions which had been used to judge their interactions with royal dynasties. The state in response has suppressed religion in an attempt to ward disapproval with their order. The removal of religion did not change this dynamic however. The people still base regime legitimacy on natural disasters as bad omens and thus forsaken by fate. In response, the authorities scramble to tackle weather conditions instead. Managing regions with floods, droughts and filled with victims succumbing to the elements.

The solution to China's problems, the essence of modern China and justification for the CCP existing is defined by policies of indefnite growth. Constant growth is their bread and circus, the modern Chinese people are only kept in line as long as growth is supposedly maintained. It doesnt matter if an entire ghost city is built for non-habitants, so long as the investment is made towards products for prestige. Their current context of growth is required for the modern Mandate of Heaven, because if the people plainly see that the good fortune of the CCP has run out, the state effectively loses the Mandate of Heaven. The last time this occured was 70 years ago when communists seized the mandate from Chiang Kai-shek, before this the Republic had also seized it from the Qing dynasty. China is absolutely dependent on the growth of the economy, because without this, it instantly falls to the numerous underlying disasters brewing. Unrest exists all over the country over various issues residing within Inner Mongolia, the muslim-practicing Uyghurs in the west, Hong Kong, Tibet, throughout the south. The difference between modern China and before is that previous regimes were sustainable, consolidating control was easier to attain in a non-growth based feudal system than feudally-minded people in a modern society. Modern, Communist China is marked by unsustainability.

Pivot To Asia

The United States National Security strategy is shifting from a counter-insurgency focus in CENTCOM, to Great Power competition to compete with near-peer adversaries such as Russia and China. As a result, the United States Marine Corps is reorienting itself for a projected clash with China in PACOM, and this will be the subject of our writing. During the so-called War on Terrorism, the USMC had become something of a de-facto second land army in CENTCOM. There wasn't much room for the Marines to fulfill their traditional Amphibious role in the counter-insurgency operations of Iraq and Afghanistan, and they became just another Army corps to lighten the load on occupation rotations by an all-volunteer military.

While they had to commit heavily to COIN, and did so in some of the most contested regions i.e Al-Anbar and Helmand provinces respectively, there was still an Amphibious capability requirement the Corps had to meet in the form of Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs). This was a continuation in accordance with Donald Rumsfeld's Quadrennial Defense Review in early 2001 before 9/11. Donald Rumsfeld called his concept: 1-4-2-1. The numbers represent a grand strategy military requirement with which the military was to orient deployments, training, strategic positioning, doctrine, tactics and equipment for.

The first 1 is for defending the US homeland. 4 is deterring emerging threats in 4 key regions of the world. 2 is the requirement that the US must be able to swiftly win 2 near simultaneous conflicts in those 4 regions. The last 1 means that the US must be able to win 1 of those aforementioned conflicts "Decisively".

This Rumsfeld doctrine would persist, even as the US had committed to the GWOT. This meant that the Marine Corps, as the nation's "Force-in-readiness" and projection of power via the sea-lanes would need to maintain forward deployed MEUs whilst also devoting itself heavily to combating an active insurgency in two countries.

The December 2017 National Security Strategy and the January 2018 National Defense Strategy officially prioritized 'Great Power Competition' as the DOD's primary focus going into a "post-9/11 era". In response to this reorientation, the USMC and the Navy cooperated in developing a new concept of operations focused on countering the PRC in PACOM.

It was theorized that, in the age of long-range, precision guided munitions and C4ISR, a Chinese strategy would rely heavily upon their Anti-Access Area-Denial (A2AD) capabilities in the South China sea. During the immediate post-Cold War era, the US Navy-Marine Corps team enjoyed a mostly uncontested maritime environment. America, acting as a global thalassocracy, was able to project power globally and focus on capabilities that promoted maritime power projection without actually needing to develop capabilities in parallel that focused on actually establishing sea control. As a result, America's sea fighting capabilities waned in the luxury of the relatively uncontested maritime environment. This was both an effect of, as well as a causation to the "Unipolar" American thalassocracy that enjoyed this status until the mid-2010s. With the advent of 21st century sensors and weaponry, navies around the world once again face challenges of a contested maritime environment. This is not only from state actors but, as we have seen recently with the example of the Houthi's maritime strikes, non-state actors contribute to the contested maritime environment. The Navy-Marine Corps team began plans to reorient with "Littoral Operations in a Contested Environment (LOCE)" as the concept of operations to guide the wider Naval service towards these ends.

The Commandant of the Marine Corps established "Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations" as the new concept of operation to meet these new challenges on the Marine Corps side of the Naval service. EABO envisions, in a hypothetical conflict with China in the South China sea, dispersed Marine units cooperating with the Navy in the island chains to facilitate fire and maneuver for the Joint Naval Force. Marine units would establish Naval ISR assets, Coastal Defense Cruise Missiles (CDCMs), Anti-Air missiles, and Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARPs) for aircraft such as the F-35. These units could also control or outpost key maritime terrain to improve security for sea-lines of communication (SLOC) and littoral chokepoints, whilst also denying their use to the enemy.

In essence, the Commandant's EABO concept seeks to turn the "sea-denial table" on potential adversaries as well as deter fait accompli actions. The Marine Corps has already taken drastic steps to adopt this concept practically. They have disbanded their Tank battalions and are in the process of acquiring more HIMARs rocket artillery as opposed to reliance on self-propelled artillery. They are also experimenting with new "Marine Littoral Regiments" that would revise the traditional Marine Infantry Regiment by attaching long range Anti-ship batteries and Anti-Air elements to Infantry battalions.

In addition to this restructuring, the Marine Corps seems to be looking to strategically position themselves in anticipation for confrontation with China. Camp Blaz was created on Guam as the newest Marine Corps base since 1952, and is planned to become the new home for III MEF, which is currently stationed at Okinawa. III MEF has seen the most experimentation with EABO, as they were tasked with transforming the 3rd Marine Regiment into a Marine Littoral Regiment, and have conducted numerous exercises experimenting on EABO.

However, there has been opposition to EABO. Some critics within the Corps say that focusing on China too early will ensure we lose the 9/11 wars, which are far from over in their opinion. EABO loyalists have refuted this by both diverting critics attention to the National Security Strategy which has de facto declared the 9/11 wars as a past era, and have also made the claim that due to the relatively smaller size of the Marine Corps, PACOM will require the attention of most of the Corps as did the Pacific theater in World War II.

Major Jake Yeager, an Intelligence officer with I MEF expressed his opinion that EABO would not be enough to prevent the Marine Corps from becoming a "second land army" in PACOM as had happened prior during the 9/11 wars. He presents the fact that, while EABO is admittedly viable, it envisions a land-based Marine Corps far too similar to the Army's Multi Domain Task Forces. He claims the Army is already best suited for EABO type operations and that the Marine Corps must seek a more Amphibious approach if it is to avoid redundancy and become a second land army, this time in the archipelagos of the pacific rather than the deserts of the middle east.

The dilemma of EABO is this, it seeks to employ "the relative strength of the contemporary defense" to utilize an integrated maritime force that can check the adversary's naval forces. Both EABO and the Army's Multi Domain Task Forces emphasize the tactical defense and strongly favor land-based capabilities. Major Jake Yeager conceptualized "Expeditionary Advanced Maritime Operations (EAMO)" as an alternative to EABO. EAMO finds issues with EABO's assumption of the "Superiority of the Tactical Defense" as this could lead to a scenario akin to the no-man's land of world war 1. No-man's sea, where both sides in the maritime conflict establish a strong defense with the Chinese A2AD and American EABO , which could be thought of as a strategically offensive A2AD, which is still inherently defensive on the tactical level.

To prevent a potential maritime stalemate, EAMO envisions a revision of the Marine Air Ground Task Force into new Marine Sea Task Forces, operating as small boat units that could play the 21st century maritime role of the "Stormtrooper" that had restored maneuver and the tactical offensive to the battlefields of World War 1 and established the precedence for the "Blitzkriegs" of World War 2. EAMO envisions a new "Maritime Blitzkrieg".

EAMO "takes the Continental Marines’ small-boat raiding and ship-to-ship warfighting approach from the 1700s and fuses it with Iran’s modern asymmetric small-boat concept, which continues to bedevil the U.S. Navy." Major Jake Yeager goes on to explain how the PRC's Naval forces are heavily modeled on the US Navy and therefore, an Iranian model should prove highly effective against them.

"Like a boxer fighting a tall opponent with long reach, the main tactical objective of expeditionary advanced maritime operations is to “go inside” and operate in close proximity to Chinese ships, where they are most vulnerable. The Type 055 Renhai cruiser — China’s premier surface combatant — has 112 vertical launch cells capable of firing anti-ship missiles, but these missiles are designed to target large ships at long ranges, not small boats close in. The ship’s one deck gun and close-in weapon system are both forward of the superstructure, making it especially vulnerable to small-boat attacks from the rear. China wants to fight long-range “non-contact warfare,” but expeditionary advanced maritime operations would force it into an up-close and personal fight with U.S. marines and sailors." - Major Jake Yeager

Banker's China

1. Energy: China's energy consumption grew almost 4% this year and it's domestic energy reserves are rapidly depleting, providing less than 20% of total consumption. This forces China to expand to control Venezuela or Australia as a commodity exporter

2. Hong Kong. Since the 1840s Hong Kong was controlled by a network of banking and merchant families that made their fortunes by the importation of opium. When the Ming emperor tried to curtail their opium trade, they enlisted the British Navy and the Opium Wars were fought to secure their domination of China.

These families established Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) and they still control Hong Kong to this day. So how China handles the topic of Hong Kong independence is a litmus test for if they are playing hardball or softball with the bankers.

The Keswick family has historic ties to MI6 and has completely regained its Chinese fortune after being kicked out during the Communist Revolution. The patriarch of the family, Henry Keswick returned to the family's Hong Kong business after leaving N M Rothschild and Sons

>“You were bitten by the snake but you did not run away,” Wang Qishan, China’s vice-president, once told Sir Henry, referring to the Mao government’s seizure of Jardines’ assets in China in 1951. “You waited until the snake became benevolent and you returned.”

3. Dollar shortages. Right now the bankers have China on a leash. If China bows its head and does as told, they allow the Middle Kingdom to scrape by with some economic growth. If China tries to supplant the dollar framework or is overly aggressive the bankers will cause the Chinese economy to implode. Even though Chinese corporations earn in Yuan, their external debts are generally denominated in dollars. This makes the current dollar shortage potentially disastrous, as it could cause a large wave of defaults among Chinese corporations.

Right now China is trying to remedy the dollar shortage by doing IPOs on Western stock exchanges and offshore money market borrowing. The Trump admin is making last minute attempts to shut down these solutions.

So to we can see China's economic trajectory as determined by how they behave vis a vis the bankers

Further reading: Israel's China

Israel Is Giving China the Keys to Its Largest Port – and the U.S. Navy May Abandon Israel

http://archive.vn/vHwOK

There's A Growing Sore Spot In Israeli-U.S. Relations: China

http://archive.vn/5vu3h

China wins on Haifa port, but fights with US for the future - analysis

http://archive.vn/VPZUh

While the US Is Waging a Trade War With China, Its Ally Israel Is Widening the Commercial Relationship

http://archive.vn/ad9t8

Opinion | How Long Can Trump Bully Israel to Downgrade Ties With China?

http://archive.vn/fyhkT

China Says 'We Trust the Jewish Friends' After Pompeo Warns Israel About Investments

https://archive.vn/WGcJQ

Israel-China Relations: How Israel Is Getting Caught Between US-China Rivalry? Analysis

http://archive.vn/39W4H

India or China: Whom Did Israel Support During The Intense India-China Border Standoff?

http://archive.ph/6y4xP

Pompeo Warns American Jewish Committee: China Is 'Growing Challenge' for Israel, U.S.

http://archive.vn/PQITD

Bloomberg | U.S. Scrutiny of Israel’s China Ties Expands to Universities | 19-05-20
— "Israeli academics’ ties with China are on the U.S.’s radar, according to two people familiar with the matter, adding new pressure on its Middle Eastern ally to cool relations with Beijing.

https://archive.vn/1tarY

A Jew in Mao's China https://archive.vn/q0o5Z

Until I saw the documentary “The Revolutionary” at the Philadelphia Independent Film Festival, I mistakenly thought that China during the revolutionary period was one country that had not felt the Jewish embrace. In fact, 85 to 90% of the foreigners helping the Chinese at the time of the Communist takeover were Jewish. This included the daughter of the founder of the brokerage firm Goldman Sachs, who left the comfort of her Park Avenue home to assist the Chinese.

“The Revolutionary” tells the story of Southern-born Sidney Rittenberg, the only American that has ever been admitted to the Chinese Communist Party. The Mandarin-speaking Rittenberg, who was initially sent to China by the U.S. Army at the time of Japan’s surrender at the end of World War II, became an influential advisor to Mao Zedong and to the first premier of the People’s Republic of China, Zhou Enlai. His pivotal role at the Broadcast Authority, explaining the Communist Chinese point of view to America, earned him a higher salary than Chairman Mao.

A Jewish Dynasty in a Changing China
https://archive.vn/KDYVH