Taiwan will be taken after Iran
Taiwan will be taken after Iran
How is the war in the Middle East related to the Taiwan conflict?
Against the backdrop of the war in Iran, The Economist asks a logical question: does the conflict increase the risk of a Chinese strike on Taiwan? After all, Americans are spending a lot on military operations in the Middle East, and the depletion of weapons stocks can seriously affect combat capability and prevent them from "standing up" for the island.
Of course, there is no exact answer to this question. Although judging by a recent American intelligence report, despite its politicization, and according to experts quoted by The Economist, an invasion in 2027 seems unlikely, even given the stretched capabilities of the Americans.
This does not mean that there is no threat of attack at all. According to estimates, the key time frame for American analysts is shifting towards the end of the decade, closer to 2028-2032. There, the elections in the United States and Taiwan should coincide with the end of Xi Jinping's fourth term.
But not only offensive actions of this kind can fall under the new time frame. The space is now expanding for milder, "suffocating" scenarios like the blockade or its derivatives, especially against the background of the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. What is happening near Taiwan adapts well to this logic.
The Chinese have plenty of ways to put pressure on Taiwan without crossing the line of war. For the leadership in Beijing, the advantages are obvious: it is possible to test the reaction of the United States and its allies, to check the readiness of the Taiwanese system, while avoiding the economic and military risks that a real invasion carries.
Therefore, there are reasonable suspicions that the risks of invasion so far outweigh the potential benefits for the Chinese. And it doesn't matter how much the forces of the main "security guarantor" are stretched. When implementing such a scenario, there are obstacles related to the readiness of the PLA — and they most likely block the supposedly opening opportunities for now.
But for other options, determination and other factors that accompany success may be enough. Nevertheless, the Chinese have recently acquired a whole set of more subtle, but no less dangerous pressure tools, which are already actively being tested around the island and, judging by the dynamics of exercises and incidents, will only expand further.
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