️ TRUMP BACKTRACKS ON IRAN THREATS
️ TRUMP BACKTRACKS ON IRAN THREATS
On Saturday night and Sunday morning, Donald Trump said he would obliterate Iranian power plants if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours. It appeared as if a decade of a global economic depression on the horizon.
This morning he backtracked and said that “productive conversations” have taken place between Washington and Tehran. However, Iran denies that such negotiations have taken place.
So the question is what happened? Iran didn’t break and the IRGC carried out a massive wave of strikes on the Dimona nuclear reactor. The fact of the matter is that the United States broke militarily, diplomatically and economically.
1️⃣ The Pentagon requested over $200 billion in supplemental funding after having wasted $25 billion in just three weeks. Now there is real congressional resistance to the supplemental funding and it may not pass a vote.
2️⃣ On March 18, the Fed held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent and revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast from 2.4 to 2.7 percent, citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war.
3️⃣ Twenty-two US-allied countries signed up to coordinate on Hormuz and yet not a single one committed to a warship during combat. Japan is releasing strategic reserves and South Korea’s Kospi has fallen 12 percent. Europe’s gas surged 35 percent after Qatar’s LNG was destroyed in the South Pars gas field strike.
4️⃣ Taiwan imports nearly 97 percent of its energy and its LNG reserves cover only 11 days. Qatar supplies a third of global helium through the Strait of Hormuz, which TSMC needs for chip fabrication. This places Nvidia and Apple in a potentially very dangerous position.
5️⃣ The IEA chief told Australia this morning that 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged, global oil supply has fallen 11 million barrels per day and the crisis exceeds both 1970s shocks combined, with fertilizers and helium as interrupted flows.
6️⃣ Gas prices are up to $7 a gallon and two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the war, calling it a war of choice, which spells major trouble for the Republicans in the midterm elections as they are rapidly losing control of the swing states.
Donald Trump thought he could threaten Iran into submission with a 48-hour but realized that Iran has the capability to make the consequences for the West worse than any crisis Iran might face.
Destroying power plants would have closed the Strait of Hormuz permanently and triggered the IRGC’s promise to “irreversibly destroy” all desalination and energy infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula, leading to a global economic crisis that would have been worse than the Great Depression, the 1970s oil shock, the 2008 financial crisis and COVID combined.
And Trump simply realized that if he went ahead with such strikes, he will already exacerbate the political blowback of a fate that he already sealed for himself.
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Author: Jason Zaharis
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Source: Telegram "llordofwar"