Super Bowl 2021 Point Spread Betting

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Ben Halls is a longtime NFL writer who has provided syndicates for Colossus Bets along with picks for a range of global publications. He specialises in parlay betting and finding value in alternate handicaps.
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Our NFL betting expert explains how to wager on the Super Bowl spread and reveals his predictions for one of the most popular betting markets ahead of this year's big game between the Chiefs and the Buccaneers. 


Many gamblers choose to use spread betting when gambling on the NFL. This means that teams will have points added or subtracted from their scores when determining the outcome. 

The favorites for a game will have points taken away. For Super Bowl LV, the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites, and so have been given a -3.5 point handicap. As underdogs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been given a +3.5 boost. This can be seen in the table below. 

Odds courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change. 

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To win a spread bet a team has to be ahead of their opposition at the end of the game with their spread applied. This is called beating the spread. 

For Kansas City, this means they would have to beat the Buccaneers by at least four points to beat a -3.5 spread. If Tampa Bay only lose by three points or less, or beat the Chiefs, then their +3.5 point spread would make them the winner. 

Some spreads are full for full points rather than half points, for example being +/-3 points. This leaves the possibility of the game ending in a tie when the spread is applied.
Usually this would result in a push, meaning your stake is returned with no winnings, however always check with your bookmaker for their specific terms and conditions. 

While there is no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs are favorites to win the Super Bowl, all evidence points to the Buccaneers being able to beat the 3.5 point spread. 

The two were evenly matched when they met in week twelve of the regular season, where the Chiefs ran out 27-24 winners. This result would have resulted in a winning bet if you backed the Buccaneers at +3.5 points, as their adjusted score would have been 27.5 points. 

The two teams continue to perform similarly and record comparable averages in the postseason.

Both offenses are putting up similar points to each other, with the Chiefs averaging 30 points per game and the Bucs 30.7. On defense the margin is fine too, with the Chiefs conceding 20.5 points and the Bucs just 23 per game. 

Regardless of a wider performance, this all points towards two teams who’ll be closely matched on the scoreboard. 

The Kansas City Chiefs have much superior yardage statistics, however this does not always translate onto the scoreboard. What matters is both teams are putting up and conceding similar amounts of points, and this gives advantage to the Bucs and their +3.5 spread.

*Odds from All information is supplied without guarantee. The odds are subject to change.

Many bookmakers offer alternate spreads, which allow you to chose your own handicaps on games. While main spreads are typically the ones which are closest to +100, these alternate ones allow you to explore different point spreads with longer and shorter odds. 

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Three points is the most common margin of victory in the NFL, and this is what makes the -3.5 main spread on the Chiefs hard to back. If they win the game by a field goal, as they did in week twelve, they wouldn’t beat the spread. 

However, by taking the Chiefs at -2.5 points the odds improve over the moneyline while still protecting against a narrow margin of victory. 
*Odds from All information is supplied without guarantee. The odds are subject to change.

For this result to come in the Kansas City Chiefs will have to convert the advantages they have in moving the football into points. 

The Chiefs are averaging 438.5 yards per game over the course of the postseason, while the Bucs are only managing 391.3. The Chiefs are also giving up fewer defensive yards, conceding just 335.5 to the Bucs’ 350 per game. This equates to about an extra drive downfield per game.

Backing the Chiefs here is to say that they will convert that extra drive into a touchdown, something which is perfectly within the abilities of Patrick Mahomes and his excellent offense.  
*Odds from All information is supplied without guarantee. The odds are subject to change.
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Home»Odds»NFL Super Bowl Odds For The 2022 Season
Odds Shark Staff | Mon, Aug 9 2021, 2:20pm
Updated: Thu, Aug 12 2021, 7:58am
With NFL training camps underway, we have a clearer picture of which teams have the best odds to win Super Bowl 56 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on February 13, 2022.
At Bovada, the Kansas City Chiefs are the early +500 betting favorites in Super Bowl odds. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+625), Green Bay Packers (+1200), San Francisco 49ers (+1300) and Buffalo Bills (+1300) make up the rest of the top five teams with the best chances to lift the Lombardi Trophy this season. 
Here’s a look at the Super Bowl odds for all 32 NFL clubs:
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers wasn’t happy. The reigning NFL MVP had made it pretty clear over the last few months that he did not intend on committing to playing for the Packers this season, or ever again, despite being under contract until after the 2023 season. 
But on July 27, Rodgers reported to Packers training camp amid reports that his contract would be reworked to include several concessions to him, including a void of the final year of his contract that potentially sets up a trade after this season.
That means this year is somewhat of a “last dance” situation for the future Hall of Famer and the Packers. 
Oddsmakers at Bovada immediately incorporated the news into 2022 Super Bowl odds, moving the Pack from +1800 up to +1200, the third-best odds in the league.
The Packers were the top seed in the NFC last year after going 13-3 on the back of Rodgers’ career-high 48 touchdown passes. 
The Packers would go on to lose, at home, to the eventual champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC title game.
Tampa Bay, which entered Super Bowl 55 as a 3-point underdog, was dominant from start to finish against Kansas City. Now, the Buccaneers return all 22 starters to their roster (they are the first team in the salary cap era to do so) for another run with Tom Brady at the helm in his second season with the team.
The Bucs added to their depth in the draft, selecting edge rusher Joe Tryon in the first round and adding players at linebacker, wide receiver, offensive line and quarterback in later rounds.
With the band back together and a proper offseason for Brady and company to practice, there is little reason to believe the Bucs can’t repeat. The betting markets agree as Tampa Bay has the second-best odds at most sportsbooks.
Whether it’s been through big signings in free agency or trades, it’s clear the Rams believe their window to win a championship is now. General manager Les Snead made the biggest blockbuster trade of his tenure on January 31, as the Rams acquired veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions. Going back to the Lions were a pair of first-round picks, a third-round pick and QB Jared Goff.
The addition of Stafford, the Lions’ all-time leader in every major quarterbacking category, makes the Rams look downright scary in the NFC.
It’s clear oddsmakers agree, evident in Los Angeles’ +1400 Super Bowl odds. The NFC West was already the toughest division in football, and it’s about to get even more competitive with Stafford in the Golden State.
The Cleveland Browns have one of the deepest rosters in the league and are poised to build on their successful 2020 season. The Browns finished third in their division despite going 11-5 and now enter the 2021 season with the eighth-best odds at +1600.
The schedule is tough for Cleveland, with road games in Kansas City, New England and Green Bay along with one of the toughest divisional schedules in the league. But, there is an argument to be made that the roster has been upgraded significantly even after the team won 11 games last season.
Odell Beckham Jr. is back healthy after appearing in only seven games last season, and key acquisitions on defense have that looking like one of the league’s top units. The Browns already had one of the league’s best offensive lines, the best running back duo, a great group of tight ends and continuity at quarterback and within the coaching staff. We like their chances.
The New England Patriots are another team that made significant upgrades this offseason and seem to be overlooked a little bit in betting markets. At +2500, the Patriots are tied for the 10th-best Super Bowl odds at Bovada.
It’s never a great bet to count out Pats head coach Bill Belichick. The legendary coach has proven to be one of the great team builders in professional sports and made significant changes to his roster in the post-Brady era.
The Patriots were talent-deficient on offense last season and started a quarterback who didn’t sign with the team until July and then had a coronavirus-shortened offseason program. Though there are still questions about who will start at quarterback, the Pats added multiple starting pass-catchers (Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne) for whoever will be under center. 
The Patriots should also have one of the league’s better defenses as they return multiple players from opt-outs and added a couple of major pieces in free agency and the draft.
The Chargers are an intriguing bet at +3000 after going 7-9 last season with the rookie of the year at quarterback. 
Justin Herbert returns for Year 2 under centre with a much-improved offensive line in front of him. Bringing in tackle Bryan Bulaga and center Corey Linsley adds two stars to a previously mediocre line while first-round pick Rashawn Slater should be an impact player from Day 1 at the left tackle spot.
However, maybe the biggest additions for LA are the team’s own stars returning from injury. Running back Austin Ekeler, defensive end Joey Bosa, cornerback Chris Harris Jr. and safety Derwin James all missed significant time last season and are returning to health this year.
The Chargers do have a new head coach, and would need many of their “injury-prone” players to stay on the field, but this is a talented roster with an ascending star at quarterback. That is worth betting on at +3000.
Can Ryan Fitzpatrick cap off a crazy NFL career with a Super Bowl ring? If it seems like a long shot, that’s because it is. The Washington Football Team has the 20th-best Super Bowl odds at +4500, but we like them as one of the best long-shot bets to win it all.
Washington won the NFC East last season (with a 7-9 record) and gave the eventual champion Buccaneers all they could handle – with a backup quarterback – in their wild-card matchup.
There is no doubting the quality of Washington’s defense that boasts one of the scariest defensive lines in recent memory. The questions for Washington are on offense where the journeyman Fitzpatrick takes over as the starter.
But with the additions of receivers Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries in free agency plus wideout Dyami Brown in the draft, Washington has quietly put together a great group of offensive weapons that already included receiver Terry McLaurin, budding star running back Antonio Gibson and tight end Logan Thomas.
Combined with that great defense, why can’t Washington make some playoff (Fitz)magic?
When it comes to betting on the NFL, odds are available before teams take their first regular-season snaps. You can even bet on a potential Super Bowl winner in August. Certain squads will always be contenders, especially if they won the previous year. When bookmakers set the lines, they look at offseason roster moves, coaching changes and past on-field performance. To bet on the odds for the Super Bowl, you’d make a futures bet.
This is a bet in which you would look at the odds for the Super Bowl, weeks or sometimes months in advance of the big game, and decide which team you think will win. Let’s say you want to make a futures bet today. At your sportsbook of choice, the odds might look something like this:
If this were a moneyline bet, you’d be able to see which team is the clear favorite because it would have a minus sign beside its odds (-). For Super Bowl futures, the team with the lowest odds is favored to win the NFL championship, and the rest are underdogs.
Let’s say you feel strongly about the Saints and believe they’re going to win it all. If you were to bet $100 on them and they did triumph, you’d get a payout of $650 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $550. Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.
The odds change throughout the season as key players get injured, trades happen and coaches get fired. Line movements for NFL futures happen weekly, so if you see odds you like, it’s best to bet on them ASAP. The Packers may be +900 to win the Super Bowl in October but after a surge in November their odds could jump to +400 and you’ll make less money than you would if you’d bet them at +900.
Need more winning picks? Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.
Odds Shark StaffSun, Feb 7, 11:20pm
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