Spring Training Statistics Useful and Not

What spring training performance data is and is not useful for predicting regular seasons

The Plentiful Useless Data

Spring training statistics are the baseball analytics community favorite example of data that is both plentiful and nearly useless. Self-selection in player usage, non-representative opposition, and small sample sizes from six weeks of exhibition play make spring training batting averages and ERAs among the least predictive statistics available.

What Spring Training Does Tell You

What spring training performance communicates: injury status, specific development projects, and the broad strokes of which rookies are ready to compete for roster spots. Each category provides information. The batting average is not in these categories.

On Deck News Coverage

The On Deck News covers spring training with the analytical framework that distinguishes useful from not-useful information, because the accountability journalism of baseball requires being honest about what the available data actually shows.

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