Spread On Eagles Falcons Game

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Sep 15, 2019 at 7:29 pm ET 3 min read
After losing three straight games to the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia, the Atlanta Falcons finally get their shot at the Eagles in Atlanta when the teams square off on Sunday Night Football. The Falcons will try to avoid losing their fourth straight game to Philadelphia in less than three years. In the previous three games -- all at Lincoln Financial Field -- Atlanta was outscored, 57-37. But the Falcons are 60-32 at home since the start of the Matt Ryan era in 2008. Atlanta (0-1) is coming off a sloppy, 28-12 season-opening loss at Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Eagles (1-0) are coming off a 32-27 victory against Washington. Kickoff from the Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is a one-point favorite in the latest Eagles vs. Falcons odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 53. Before you make any Eagles vs. Falcons picks, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 2 of the 2019 NFL season on a sizzling 17-6 run that dates back to last season. It's also on a strong 79-49 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 
The model ranked inside the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 
Now, the model has honed in on Eagles vs. Falcons. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. That one is available only at SportsLine. 
The model has taken into consideration that Philadelphia should be able to run the ball against Atlanta's defense. In the season opener, the Falcons allowed 4.5 yards per rush to the Vikings. Minnesota was so successful running the ball that the Vikings threw the ball just 10 times the entire game. With an offensive line that's far superior to Minnesota's and a deep stable of running backs that features Jordan Howard, Darren Sproles and Miles Sanders, the Eagles have enough pieces to move the ball on the ground successfully.
The model also knows that Atlanta will be without starting right guard Chris Lindstrom. The No. 14 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Lindstrom left the season opener with a broken left foot. He was being counted on heavily to upgrade a line that was a major area of concern in the offseason. Even with Lindstrom playing almost three quarters of the season opener, the Falcons allowed four sacks. Jamon Brown, a free agent signee, will start for Lindstrom against an Eagles front seven that's comparable to Minnesota's.
Even so, Philadelphia isn't guaranteed to cover the Eagles vs. Falcons spread on Sunday Night Football.
That's because Atlanta's offense should not be slowed by the Eagles' pass rush. Three of Philadelphia's top four defensive ends combined for zero sacks and zero quarterback hits in the season opener against Washington. That helped the Redskins torch the Eagles for 370 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Ryan and his offensive weapons are set up to have a big night against the Philadelphia pass defense. 
If history is any indication, Julio Jones will have a big night on Sunday. The superstar receiver has burned the Eagles over the last five meetings between the teams, averaging 133.8 receiving yards a game while scoring three touchdowns. Last year, Jones caught 10 balls for 169 yards against Philadelphia. Though he was held to six catches for 31 yards and a touchdown by the Vikings, the Eagles don't have a corner like Minnesota's Xavier Rhodes to shadow Jones.
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