Spread Betting Strategies Football

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If you’re aware of the injuries, it’s likely that the oddsmakers are, too.

Even the best teams in the NFL often have a difficult time putting together a winning record on the road.

Getting the best number is especially important when dealing with point spreads in the range of 3 and 7.

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Home » Blog » NFL Spread Betting: 5 Tips to Win Consistently ATS
In theory, point spreads are 50/50 propositions. Either Team A will cover the spread, or Team B will (excluding pushes, when the difference in the final score is the exact same number as the point spread.)
At -110 odds, you only need to win 52.38% of your point spread bets in order to break even, and anything better than that will make you money. So why does it sometimes seem so hard to pick 53% when simply flipping a coin would result in 50% winners?
It’s probably because most bettors think the same way, and the oddsmakers tilt the lines a bit so that it really isn’t a 50-50 proposition after all. After all, if the sportsbooks know that most of the money in this weekend’s games will be bet on popular teams like Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Dallas, why wouldn’t they set the lines to make it a little more difficult for the Packers, Steelers and Cowboys to cover them?
Not that you’ll get rich betting against those public teams, either. Many have tried the ‘fade the public’ approach without success. No, the best way to win consistently against the point spread is by looking to find value in areas where other people don’t.
Here are 5 NFL spread betting tips that can help you do just that.
One of the biggest mistakes bettors make when picking against the spread is automatically betting against teams that are missing one or more of their star players.
The absence of those star players is already factored into the betting line, so you aren’t getting any additional value by betting against teams missing key starters.
For example, oddsmakers recently put up 2 different betting lines for a Week 3 game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings. If Sam Bradford started at QB for the Vikings, Minnesota was going to be a -1 favorite at home. If Bradford didn’t start, Tampa Bay was a 3-point favorite. That 4-point swing in the point spread was the oddsmakers’ way of compensating for Bradford’s potential presence or absence, meaning bettors weren’t getting any extra value either way.
By the way, Bradford didn’t play, and the Vikings easily covered the spread as home underdogs, pasting Tampa Bay 34-17. Apparently, Minnesota was still capable of beating the Bucs without their #1 quarterback.
That’s another reason not to bet against teams just because they’re missing an important player – those teams often bring more focus to the game and elevate their play because they know they have to. Research the backup who will be filling in for that starter, and you can often grab some extra point spread value by betting on the team who is missing a top player.
Trap games. Sandwich games. Lookahead spots. Letdown spots. Whatever you want to call them, an NFL season is ripe with situations in which teams can drastically underperform.
You can often identify these in advance simply by looking at a team’s schedule. Even at the beginning of the season, you can project when certain teams may not be completely focused on this week’s opponent, simply because of who they played last week and/or who they face next.
A classic letdown spot is when a team has a non-conference road game sandwiched between games against divisional opponents. Division games are so important in the NFL, and the rivalries are often so intense, that teams will struggle to manufacture the same intensity for a non-conference game that doesn’t really matter as much. Sure, every game is important in the overall scheme of things, but it’s virtually impossible for teams to “get up” for all 16 games of the season.
Teams who are playing their third consecutive road game are also in a tough situational spot, as are teams who played a road game on Monday Night Football the previous week and have one less day to prepare for their next opponent. Betting against teams who played on Monday Night Football is an even stronger angle if their upcoming opponent is coming off a bye week (or even a Thursday Night Football game from the previous week) since the difference in preparation time is even more significant.
Yet another great letdown spot is when teams are coming off a hard-fought emotional victory, a big upset or a blowout win in which they performed at the top of their game. It’s simple human nature for people to get a little complacent after a strong performance, so they may not be as mentally sharp in practice the following week. And since the public is generally influenced by what happened in last week’s games, you’ll probably catch some extra point spread value as the odds on those teams are adjusted to reflect that strong performance.
According to studies, home teams in the NFL win approximately 57% of the time . That’s the second-highest home team winning percentage in the 4 major North American sports (NBA, NFL, Major League Baseball and NHL), behind only the NBA’s 60% home team winning percentage.
In 2016, 3 division champions posted records of .500 or worse away from home, as the Texans went 2-6, the Seahawks were 3-4-1 and the Packers went 4-4. AFC North champion Pittsburgh was just 5-3 on the road, where the Steelers averaged nearly 2 fewer touchdowns per game than when they played at Heinz Field.
If a weak team is going to beat a heavyweight, it’s almost always going to happen at home. The longer that the home underdog can keep things close, the more the crowd gets behind them, and the home team will feed off that even more. Visiting teams also need to deal with overcoming crowd noise when they’re on offense (hurting their ability to call audibles at the line of scrimmage), they may not be familiar with field or weather conditions, the referees may be biased towards the home team, and visiting teams’ preparation for the game is shortened a bit by having to travel.
3 points is what home field advantage is generally considered to be worth on the point spread, but there are certain home fields in the NFL that could be worth more than that. ESPN.com did an interesting analysis of which teams enjoy the best home field advantage in the NFL, and you’ll want to make sure you’re not often betting against the top teams on that list when they’re playing at home.
It’s a huge mistake to assess a team’s ability and potential purely on its record.
So many things go into winning and losing in the NFL, but the biggest factor may simply be luck. It’s common for a team to get dominated in yardage, yet win the game because it recovered a couple of fumbles at key times or returned a kick for a touchdown. In fact, turnovers (which have a lot to do with luck) often decide who wins the game. Teams that are +1 or better on the turnover ratio win approximately 70% of the time.
A more accurate way of analyzing teams’ strengths and weaknesses is by looking at their yards per play on offense and defense. Luck will even out over time, so a team that consistently gains lots of yards will do better in the long run than a team that struggles to move the chains.
Also be sure to look at how the offenses and defenses of each team match up against each other. For example, if one team excels at running the ball on offense and the other struggles to stop the run on defense, that’s a mismatch you’ll want to exploit.
Some people think that point spreads don’t really matter that much because the team that wins the game in the NFL often covers the spread in the process. Obviously, if an underdog wins the game, they cover the spread, and favorites usually cover the number if they win the game, especially if the point spread is under a touchdown.
But even if correctly predicting who will win the game will go a long way towards nailing your point spread pick, you still need to pay attention to what the point spread is. More specifically, you need to make sure you’re getting the best possible number on that point spread. Getting a few extra winners or pushes in a season because you got an extra half-point on the spread is often the difference between a winning season and a losing one.
The best way to do that is by having accounts at several different betting sites and then monitoring each sportsbook’s betting lines throughout the week. If the Giants win by 4 points and you were able to find -3.5 instead of settling for the -4 available at the majority of online betting sites, you’ve turned what would have been a push into a win. Do that enough times and you’ll turn a barely profitable 53% season against the spread into a lucrative 56% season.
Those are the 2 most common margins of victory in the NFL, so consistently being able to get -2.5 instead of -3 with favorites or +7.5 instead of +7 on underdogs will always pay off in the long run.
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Does making regular and consistent profits from betting on football sound appealing? Are you prepared to put in the necessary time and effort to make this possible? If so, you’re in the right place.
Before we get started, we should make one thing very clear. There’s no single “correct” method for making your football betting selections. Consistently picking winners is just not that simple. There are many different approaches you can choose to take, and many things you need to consider when making your picks. There are several different strategies you can employ, each with its own set of advantages and disadvantages.
Pretty much any football betting strategy has the potential to be successful. The key is using them effectively. For a strategy to work, you have to use it in the right way and in the right situations. This takes both knowledge and skill.
Getting overwhelmed? Don’t! We’re here for you! This section of our website contains the most extensive, and valuable, part of our football betting guide. What we don’t do is tell you what to do. There are plenty of other websites and books that do this, but we don’t believe that simply being told what to do helps you much in the long run.
Instead, we want you to learn how to make informed decisions for yourself. We want to help you determine which approaches are likely to work the best for you, and enable you to implement your preferred strategies effectively. Your ultimate goal should be to develop your own unique winning strategies too.
That’s why we’ve provided an enormous amount of information and advice related to football betting strategy. We’ll teach you the basics and everything you need to know to help you develop the fundamental skills required to be successful. We’ve also provided details on a range of specific strategies and their various pros and cons.
Please note that we’re not claiming to know everything there is to know about betting on football. We do have guys on our team who are long term winners though. They have numerous years of experience, and they’re sharing the benefit of that experience with you. We can’t promise that we’ll turn you into a long term winner too, but we’ll certainly give you a better chance of making some money.
This page explains exactly what you’ll find in this strategy guide, which is divided into the following sections.

This is the best place to start if you’re new to learning about football betting strategy. You might be a complete beginner when it comes to betting, or you might have been betting for a while but just recently have decided to take things more seriously. Or maybe you already take things seriously but have not been getting the results you want.
Whatever your situation, this section will help put you on the road to success. We’ll teach you what football betting strategy is, how it helps and how to use it effectively. That’s not all either.
You might want to take a look at this section even if you’ve already studied football strategy extensively. Unless you’re a genuine expert yourself that is, in which case we probably can’t teach you much at all. Assuming you’re not, you’ll find some useful information here. At the very least you’ll be reminded of some important basics that you might have forgotten.
You should already have at least SOME sports betting knowledge to get the most out of this section. Preferably, you should also know a little something about betting on football specifically. If you think your knowledge is lacking in either of these areas, please take a look at the following sections of our website before proceeding.
The word handicapping often scares people when used in the context of sports betting. There seems to be a widespread misconception about what it means. Many people believe it to be an incredibly complex subject that requires genius levels of intelligence to understand. It really isn’t. There are some advanced aspects of it for sure, but it’s fundamentally not that complicated.
In this section we provide a complete introduction to football handicapping. This starts with an explanation of sports betting handicapping in general terms, before looking at handicapping as it relates to football specifically. We also detail the various factors you need to consider when using handicapping techniques. There are some additional articles too. The full list is below.
Several football strategies relate to specific types of wager. This makes perfect sense, as the various types of football wager work very differently. It stands to reason that a good strategy for predicting the winner of a football game is not likely to be so useful for predicting the total number of points in that game. Although there may be some crossover, the factors you need to consider are ultimately very different.
This section features strategy advice and general tips for each of the main types of football wager. The aim here is to help you learn how to use all of these wagers effectively. Much of the advice is fairly straightforward, so it’s all suitable for relative beginners. In fact, many of the strategies discussed are ideal for people who are just getting started.
You’ll get maximum benefit from this section if you’re already familiar with the various types of football wagers and how they work. You can find all that information on the following two pages.
In this section things start to get a little more advanced. There’s still nothing that we’d consider to be super complicated, but you’ll still need a sturdy foundation of football betting strategy if you’re going to make the most of the information and advice here. So we don’t recommended jumping in to this section as a complete beginner.
We start this section with a discussion about the psychology of football betting. Although this isn’t directly related to strategy, it’s still an important subject to understand. Learning how to deal with the mental and emotional aspects of football betting will definitely help you in the long run.
The rest of this section consists of detailed articles on some specific strategies. These can all be applied to football betting in general, whether on the professional game or at college level. The full list of articles can be found below.
This section is all about betting on the National Football League. We explain some specific NFL betting strategies, and offer lots of general advice for betting on the NFL. Some of the content here is quite advanced, while some of it is actually quite straightforward. We do recommend starting with the beginners’ section before tackling this one.
Our final section focuses on college football. There are some aspects of betting on the NCAAF that are very different from betting on the NFL. Although the basics are fundamentally the same, some of the required strategies are not. If you’re planning to spend time betting on college football games, you’ll definitely benefit from the information and advice featured here.

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