Sports Spread Betting Underdog

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For every game, regardless of the sport, the oddsmakers first must decide which team is the favorite and which team is the underdog. Many factors go into the process. It’s not as simple as the team with the better record being the favorite. Things like home-field advantage and injuries can help the oddsmakers decide that one team is more likely to beat the other on any given day.
The favorite is considered the better team that is expected to win the game. Favorites typically have superior players, more experience, better coaching, a better track record of success and match up better against their opponents. The underdog, also known simply as the “dog,” is the worse team that is expected to lose the game. Underdogs don't match up well against their opponent. They might be less talented, less experienced and have inferior coaching.
However, because favorites are the better team and win the majority of their games, oddsmakers must make betting fair by providing pros and cons to betting favorites and underdogs. Otherwise, everyone would just bet always favorites and the sportsbooks would go bankrupt. As a result, oddsmakers level the playing field by creating risks for betting favorites and providing advantages for betting underdogs.
There are two basic ways to bet on a favorite or an underdog, which is referred to as betting “the side.” The most popular bet type is the point spread, also known as simply the spread or “SPD” for short. The spread is a certain number of points taken away from the favorite and given to the underdog in order to level the playing field. The spread has nothing to do with which team wins the game. The only thing that matters is the margin of victory.
The favorite “gives” or “lays” points to the underdog while the underdog “gets” or “receives” points. Favorites will have a minus sign (-) in front of their odds while the underdogs will have a plus sign ( + ) in front of their odds. If the two teams are even based on the oddsmakers projections and the game is considered a 50/50 game or coin flip, the spread is zero. This would be called a “pick’em” or just "pick" for short, with neither team laying or getting points. 
The spread is available in almost all sports, but it is most popular in football and basketball because the margin of victory can be vast. Baseball and hockey also have the spread, but they aren't as popular because many games result in a margin of victory of one run or one goal. In baseball the spread is known as the "run-line" with the favorite giving 1.5 runs and the dog getting 1.5 runs. This means the favorite spread is -1.5 and the dog spread is + 1.5. In hockey, the spread is known as the "puck-line" with the favorite laying 1.5 goals and the dog getting 1.5 goals. If you bet either favorite, they would need to win by two or more runs or goals in order for you to win and cover your bet. If they only win by one, or lose the game straight up, you lose your bet. If you bet either dog, they would need to win the game straight up or lose by one run or one goal. Because underdogs are getting an extra run or goal and a half with the spread, bettors must pay a higher price on them. In turn, the price of betting a favorite on the spread is much cheaper because they have to win the game by more than one run or goal.
For favorites to win a spread bet, they need to win by any margin that is greater than the spread they are laying. For underdogs to win the spread bet, they need to win straight up or lose by a number less than the spread they are receiving. If the favorite or underdog fits this criteria, that is considered a “cover,” meaning they covered the spread and won the bet.
For example, let’s say the the New England Patriots are playing the New York Jets. The oddsmakers list the Patriots as 7-point favorites. This means the oddsmakers view the Patriots as 7 points better than the Jets. Bettors then have the choice of laying the 7 points with the Patriots, which would be referred to as betting the Patriots -7, or taking the points with the Jets, which would be referred to as betting the Jets + 7.
If you bet the Patriots -7, they would need to win by 8 points or more for you to win your bet and cover the spread. If the Patriots win by six points or fewer, or lose the game straight up, you lose your bet. If you bet the Jets + 7, they would need to either win the game straight up or lose the game by six points or less in order for you to win your bet and cover the spread. If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points that would be considered a “push,” in which case the sportsbooks would refund the money that you bet.
It’s important to remember that not all spreads are whole numbers. You often see spreads featuring half points. The extra half point is critical and could end up being the difference between a win, a loss and push. The extra half point is referred to as “the hook.” 
For example, instead of the Patriots opening as 7-point favorites, the oddsmakers might instead set the line at Patriots -6.5. This means that if you wanted to bet the Patriots, they would need to win by 7 points or more for you to win and cover your bet. If you bet the Jets + 6.5, you would need the Jets to win the game or lose by six points or fewer. If they lose by exactly six points, you win and cover your bet because of the hook. With half-point spreads a game cannot end in a push. 
In the betting world, teams are measured by two sets of win-loss records: their conventional win-loss record (straight up or "SU") and their win-loss based on how they perform when factoring in the spread, otherwise referred to as their “against the spread” or "ATS" record. This refers to how often a team covers, not how often they win. For example, the Jets might have a win-loss record of 7-9 but are 10-6 ATS. This means they've only won 7 of their 16 games, but have covered 10 of them. In terms of the standings, the Jets would be considered a losing team. But in terms of betting they would be considered a winning and profitable team to bet on.
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Home > Blog > Always Look at Sports Betting Underdogs First
One of the things I like about betting at online sportsbooks is there’s not just one way to pick winners. Some successful handicappers find favorites to profit on using moneylines or spread lines that offer value. Other bettors find value in underdogs that have a chance to win the game outright.
Many sports bettors simply look for value, whether it’s on the favorite or underdog.
But one thing that all winning sports bettors have in common is their ability to handicap games and find value.
The way I find the most value is by looking at the underdogs first. Here’s some information to help you find more value on underdogs that I’ve used in the past.
When you look at underdogs, you can look at the spread or the moneyline. Most of my underdog wagers are on spread bets, but I do make some moneyline bets that offer long term value.
The reason why I like underdog spread bets is because the outcome of any game is never 100% certain.
Underdogs can win a game outright or they can use the points they receive to win the bet. Sports teams don’t care about the spread. They are usually trying to win, so they keep fighting until the end.
This is why so many big favorites don’t cover the spread. They get a big lead and then let the other team fight back toward the end, even when the game is out of reach.
When I look at moneyline underdogs I use a simple calculation. I use my handicapping system to determine how often the underdog wins the game if it was played 100 times. Then I compare this to the extra money I win on the moneyline when the underdog wins, and if it’s positive I consider placing a wager.
Here’s an example of a value moneyline bet:
An underdog has a moneyline of +200. This means that if you make a $100 bet and the underdog wins you get back your $100 and a profit of $200. You handicap the game and determine that the underdog should win the game 40 out of 100 times, or 40%.
To find out if this is a profitable bet, you determine how much you need to risk to bet on the game 100 times and your return the 40 times the underdog wins.
Your total cost to bet the game 100 times is $10,000. When you win you get $300, including your bet. This is a return of $12,000 on the 40 wins. This means that if your handicapping method is correct this is a profitable bet.
You don’t find many moneyline wagers that are this clear cut. Most of them are too close to risk a bet. When this happens you should skip the game and look for a more profitable opportunity.
Home underdogs are my favorite group of dogs to look at. Every home underdog doesn’t offer value, but some of them do. These are the games where I invest most of my bankroll.
Home teams are more likely to perform up to expectations or exceed expectations.
The players get to stay at home before the game so they tend to be better rested. The home players also are able to maintain their normal routine leading up to the game.
If you track upsets in every sport, you’re going to find that the majority of them are home underdogs. With the added benefit of receiving points when you bet the underdog, you have two ways to win. The dog can win outright or play well enough to win with the extra points.
You still need to do a good job handicapping these games to find value. Many home underdogs don’t end up providing value, so don’t force these bets.
I also tend to make larger bets on home underdogs than average. My long term profits are higher in these situations, which probably has as much to do with my handicapping system as anything else.
Every handicapping system or model is different, so your might do a better job predicting winners using a different starting point than mine.
Before I explain how I bet on road underdogs, I want to make sure you understand something that’s very important. Betting on road underdogs is dangerous, and if you’re not a good handicapper it can cost you a great deal of money.
Road underdogs have everything working against them. They have to travel and home teams perform better on average than road teams. Even the best teams play worse on the road than they do at home.

The good news is that the online sportsbooks who set the lines take all of this into account. They adjust their lines against the road team, and sometimes they adjust them too much. When this happens you can find value.
So what I’m looking for when I consider betting on road underdogs are games where the sportsbook has overcompensated for the home team advantage.
The road underdog has to offer a clear value for me to place a bet, and I usually make smaller bets than when I find value on home underdogs.
I’ve talked about betting underdogs up to this point. But a good handicapper doesn’t care is they bet on the favorite or underdog, as long as they find value. Not everyone handicaps games the way I do, but many use something close.
When I handicap a game I determine a final score, or final spread that I believe is accurate. Some games are easier than others to predict. On the challenging games, I rarely place a bet.
If there’s not clear value on one side of a game based on the line, I save my money for a better opportunity.
When I use my system looking for underdogs who offer value, sometimes I find a line that is far from my prediction model. The first thing I do when this happens is take a close look at the way I handicapped the game to make sure I’m not missing something important.
If I don’t find a mistake in my handicapping, I’m then willing to place a bet based on the value between my prediction and the line. When the line shows value on the favorite, I don’t hesitate to bet the favorite.
Here’s an example of using value to bet the favorite:
I handicapped a college football game because the road team looked like it had a decent chance to win the game outright. From past experience I was sure the road team would be the underdog, so I wanted to determine how many points I needed to bet on them for value.
My handicapping showed that there was value on any line that gave the underdog five or more points. But when I looked at the line, the home team was only favored by one. A four point difference is big, so I evaluated the game again to make sure I wasn’t missing anything.
After looking at everything again, my evaluation still looked good. This meant that there was no value in betting on the underdog. For me to win the best getting only one point the underdog had to win the game.
You might wonder how my model could be so far off if I’m any good at handicapping.
The truth is that sometimes my model isn’t close, because no model is perfect.
But in this case what happened is that the public was strongly backing the road team and the line moved.
This is a clear sign that there’s value on the other side of the game.
I made a bet on the home favorite, giving one, and they ended up winning a close game by three points. In this case, my original prediction was good. If I was able to get a line at +5 or more I’d have won.
But the line showed value on the other side of the game and I took advantage of it.
The point I’m trying to make is you should never ignore value.
Sometimes the only value to be found is one the favorite, but you can still get to this point by looking at the underdogs first.
Underdogs on spread bets can help you win by winning the game outright or playing well enough to win with the points.
Every underdog doesn’t offer value, but if you do a good job handicapping games you can make a long term profit betting on underdogs.
Of course, you’re also going to find games where the favorite offers good value, so you need to be willing to take advantage of these opportunities when you find them. Winning sports bettors take advantage of every value bet they find.
Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.
Good points! I didn’t find a lot of good sports betting advices but this is really right. Always have a look at the underdog first. We do this in german football bundesliga with success for years even if a lot of people think it’s easier to bet on favourite winners.
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