Sports Spread Betting Underdog

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In just about any game — professional sports or otherwise — there’s going to be an expected winner and an expected loser. Teams and players rarely have the exact same level of talent, so when, say, the 11th-place Kings have to play the first-place Lakers, we aren’t expecting Sacramento to come away with a win.
And while that may not be the most complicated concept to understand, it’s a fundamental one when it comes to sports betting — the underdog.
In sports betting, an underdog is a team or player expected to lose a given game or event.
In the example above, the underdog would be the Kings, as they’d be expected to lose against the Lakers, who would be the favorite. And oddsmakers have two ways of quantifying how big an underdog is: the spread and the moneyline.
In both spread and moneyline betting (using American odds), the underdog is the team listed in front of the number with a plus sign (+).
The “spread” is the difference between the two teams in play in terms of their expected points to be scored in the game. This allows bettors to make bets on how close a game will be, as opposed to simply betting on the winner and loser.
The greater the spread, the bigger the underdog.
In the case above, the Kings are seen as 11.5-point underdogs against the Lakers. That means that in order for a Kings bet to win, they’d need to lose by no more than 11 points, or win the game outright. If they were to lose by 12 points or more, Sacramento bettors would lose their money.
You’ll notice that both spreads are listed in front of a minus number (-110). That number is simply to denote the vig (tax) taken by the sportsbook. In other words, regardless of which spread you choose to take, you’ll have to risk $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10, etc.).
In some cases, though, the teams will be seen as even matches, and the spread will be zero points (called a pick’em). In such a game, assuming the vig is once again -110 on each side, there is no underdog. If one team’s vig was lower, however (-105 vs. -115, for example), that team would be considered a very slight underdog, as that would mean it would take a $105 bet to win $100, as opposed to a $115 risk for the other side.
Reading moneyline odds is very similar to reading the vig, with the only difference being the numbers can be far more distant from even.
In moneyline sports (baseball and hockey are the main American ones), you’re betting on which team will simply win the game, rather than the expected margin of victory.
In the matchup above, the +260 indicates that the Senators are the underdogs in the game, and that a bet of $100 would win $260. So in this case, Ottawa is a pretty sizable underdog.
Sometimes you’ll come across games in which both teams will have a minus sign (-115 vs. -105, for example). In such a game, just like in the pick’em example above, the team listed with a smaller number (-105) is considered the slight underdog.
There is no simple answer to this question. If there were, bookmakers would be out of business in a hurry.
Of course, underdogs lose games more often than favorites, but that’s not to say that they necessarily lose more money for bettors than favorites.
In fact, in the NFL, underdogs have covered the spread to the tune of a 2224-2169-135 record (50.6%) since 2003. Because of the vig, that still has resulted in an overall loss of money, but it’s less money lost than would have come from taking every favorite.
On baseball moneylines, underdogs have gone 15,683-21,231 since 2005, but once again, have not lost quite as much money for bettors as favorites have.
Neither of those figures should be taken to suggest that you should only bet underdogs, but rather that the betting market has the game of sports betting pretty well figured out.
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For every game, regardless of the sport, the oddsmakers first must decide which team is the favorite and which team is the underdog. Many factors go into the process. It’s not as simple as the team with the better record being the favorite. Things like home-field advantage and injuries can help the oddsmakers decide that one team is more likely to beat the other on any given day.
The favorite is considered the better team that is expected to win the game. Favorites typically have superior players, more experience, better coaching, a better track record of success and match up better against their opponents. The underdog, also known simply as the “dog,” is the worse team that is expected to lose the game. Underdogs don't match up well against their opponent. They might be less talented, less experienced and have inferior coaching.
However, because favorites are the better team and win the majority of their games, oddsmakers must make betting fair by providing pros and cons to betting favorites and underdogs. Otherwise, everyone would just bet always favorites and the sportsbooks would go bankrupt. As a result, oddsmakers level the playing field by creating risks for betting favorites and providing advantages for betting underdogs.
There are two basic ways to bet on a favorite or an underdog, which is referred to as betting “the side.” The most popular bet type is the point spread, also known as simply the spread or “SPD” for short. The spread is a certain number of points taken away from the favorite and given to the underdog in order to level the playing field. The spread has nothing to do with which team wins the game. The only thing that matters is the margin of victory.
The favorite “gives” or “lays” points to the underdog while the underdog “gets” or “receives” points. Favorites will have a minus sign (-) in front of their odds while the underdogs will have a plus sign ( + ) in front of their odds. If the two teams are even based on the oddsmakers projections and the game is considered a 50/50 game or coin flip, the spread is zero. This would be called a “pick’em” or just "pick" for short, with neither team laying or getting points. 
The spread is available in almost all sports, but it is most popular in football and basketball because the margin of victory can be vast. Baseball and hockey also have the spread, but they aren't as popular because many games result in a margin of victory of one run or one goal. In baseball the spread is known as the "run-line" with the favorite giving 1.5 runs and the dog getting 1.5 runs. This means the favorite spread is -1.5 and the dog spread is + 1.5. In hockey, the spread is known as the "puck-line" with the favorite laying 1.5 goals and the dog getting 1.5 goals. If you bet either favorite, they would need to win by two or more runs or goals in order for you to win and cover your bet. If they only win by one, or lose the game straight up, you lose your bet. If you bet either dog, they would need to win the game straight up or lose by one run or one goal. Because underdogs are getting an extra run or goal and a half with the spread, bettors must pay a higher price on them. In turn, the price of betting a favorite on the spread is much cheaper because they have to win the game by more than one run or goal.
For favorites to win a spread bet, they need to win by any margin that is greater than the spread they are laying. For underdogs to win the spread bet, they need to win straight up or lose by a number less than the spread they are receiving. If the favorite or underdog fits this criteria, that is considered a “cover,” meaning they covered the spread and won the bet.
For example, let’s say the the New England Patriots are playing the New York Jets. The oddsmakers list the Patriots as 7-point favorites. This means the oddsmakers view the Patriots as 7 points better than the Jets. Bettors then have the choice of laying the 7 points with the Patriots, which would be referred to as betting the Patriots -7, or taking the points with the Jets, which would be referred to as betting the Jets + 7.
If you bet the Patriots -7, they would need to win by 8 points or more for you to win your bet and cover the spread. If the Patriots win by six points or fewer, or lose the game straight up, you lose your bet. If you bet the Jets + 7, they would need to either win the game straight up or lose the game by six points or less in order for you to win your bet and cover the spread. If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points that would be considered a “push,” in which case the sportsbooks would refund the money that you bet.
It’s important to remember that not all spreads are whole numbers. You often see spreads featuring half points. The extra half point is critical and could end up being the difference between a win, a loss and push. The extra half point is referred to as “the hook.” 
For example, instead of the Patriots opening as 7-point favorites, the oddsmakers might instead set the line at Patriots -6.5. This means that if you wanted to bet the Patriots, they would need to win by 7 points or more for you to win and cover your bet. If you bet the Jets + 6.5, you would need the Jets to win the game or lose by six points or fewer. If they lose by exactly six points, you win and cover your bet because of the hook. With half-point spreads a game cannot end in a push. 
In the betting world, teams are measured by two sets of win-loss records: their conventional win-loss record (straight up or "SU") and their win-loss based on how they perform when factoring in the spread, otherwise referred to as their “against the spread” or "ATS" record. This refers to how often a team covers, not how often they win. For example, the Jets might have a win-loss record of 7-9 but are 10-6 ATS. This means they've only won 7 of their 16 games, but have covered 10 of them. In terms of the standings, the Jets would be considered a losing team. But in terms of betting they would be considered a winning and profitable team to bet on.
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