Sports Point Spreads

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BettingUSA.com > Sports > Point Spread
What Is Point Spread Betting, And How Do Point Spread Bets Work?
Betting on a game in which one team is clearly in a league of its own wouldn’t be the most enthralling proposition if it wasn’t for the point spread.
Otherwise known as the great neutralizer or simply the handicap, point spreads theoretically level the playing field between two teams. Point spreads can transform a rather ho-hum blowout into a nail-biting affair. If one ever hears a sports fan screaming at the screen when the score is 31-14 with 5 seconds left, it probably means they have a point spread bet on the line.
But how does point spread betting work, and how can bettors get the best bang for their buck? We explore these questions and more below.
Points spreads are typically associated with high-scoring team sports, so bettors rarely find them for sports like soccer, tennis, and MMA.
There are the major sports for which sportsbooks offer point spread betting:
For the sports where they’re applicable, point spread betting is typically the first featured and are often associated with other top-line straight bets like the Total ( Over/Under ) and the Moneyline .
Here’s a look at the main NFL odds screen at BetMGM Sportsbook as an example:
Customers who use the BetMGM web interface will notice it posts a spread for the entire game and one for the first half. The latter is a derivative and allows bettors to place spread bets on portions of games, such as the first half as exemplified above, the second half, or the third quarter in a basketball game.
Customers will sometimes find derivatives published on the front page of a sports category, but often they’ll have to click or tap on an individual game and dig a bit to find them.
Two numbers denote point spreads. The top or left-hand side number represents how many points a team is getting or receiving, and the bottom or right-hand side number shows the odds.
So, what do they mean? Let’s address the top number first.
Imagine an NFL game where the oddsmakers price the Buffalo Bills at -3.5 vs. the Miami Dolphins at +3.5.
First, notice that the two numbers always mirror one another. That’s because point spreads are neutralizers and must cancel each other out.
The odds in this example provide several critical pieces of information to the bettor:
Therefore, the Bills must win by four points or more for a point spread bet on them to cash. Likewise, the Dolphins must either win by any amount or lose by fewer than three points to cover the spread.
If the line were instead Bills -3 instead of -3.5, and the Bills win by exactly a field goal, sportsbooks would consider any point spread bets on that game a draw and refund all outstanding tickets.
Sportsbooks typically price point spread wagers around the magical -110 number.
At -110 odds, bettors must wager $110 to win $100. Of course, bettors do not have to wager in $110 units – they can just as easily risk $55 to win $50, $220 to win $200, or even $35.58 to win $32.35.
The reason bettors don’t win even money on what’s supposed to be a 50-50 bet is that the book holds a percentage, also known as the vig. The vig on a standard -110 point spread betting is roughly 4.55%, which isn’t too high compared to other wager formats. For example, the house hold on futures bets can easily exceed 20%.
Sharp books, and there aren’t many in the US, may offer -108 or even -105 splits on point spreads. There may even be occasions when a book runs a “No Juice Spread” promo that centers the lines around +100, representing true odds. PointsBet does this each NFL season.
Point spreads aren’t always perfectly balanced, but they’re usually close. Bettors may see -115/-105, -120/+100, and odd betting lines like -112/-109 from time to time. Imbalanced odds function on the same premise: if a line is -115/-105, the bettor will be risking $110 to win $100 on the first time and $105 to win $100 on the second.
Sportsbooks tend to use variations of the point spread when pricing lower-scoring games such as hockey and baseball.
In hockey, oddsmakers set the puck line. The puck line functions the same as a point spread, except instead of attempting to level the field perfectly, the favorite almost always gives 1.5 goals (denoted as -1.5), and the underdog gets 1.5 goals (+1.5).
A 1.5 puck line may not sound like much, but it’s significant in a sport like hockey, with games often ending in scores such as 4-3, 3-2, 1-0, and so on. Even a humble 1.5-point puck line can flip the script so that moneyline favorites become puck line underdogs.
The same applies to baseball run lines. The favored team in an MLB game gives 1.5 runs to the underdog, who can lose by a single run and still win the contest for the purposes of run line wagers. Baseball scores tend to be higher than hockey, so the impact of 1.5 runs isn’t as dramatic, but there are still a fair number of instances where moneyline favorites become underdogs under the run line.
Of course, there is no rule that says puck and run lines must always be 1.5 – it’s just the most common case. Sportsbooks occasionally issue lines such as 2.5 as well.
Run and puck lines do not perfectly balance the two teams, so the odds don’t follow the -110 rule. Instead, they’ll look more like a traditional moneyline, with a clear favorite and underdog.
Sportsbooks usually publish point spreads front and center on the homepage or a sport’s category page. As a result, placing a point spread bet is a simple matter, whether betting from a desktop or mobile device.
Mobile betting apps and online sportsbooks automatically calculate the potential payouts of wagers in the slip. As such, bettors can quickly see how much they stand to win or risk on every bet before they place it.
The potential payout isn’t an indication of net profits but the total return, including the initial stake. For a -110 point spread, the indicated return will be just a hair under twice the amount wagered.
For the most part, calculating the juice , or VIG, on point spreads is straightforward because the line is the same on both sides. However, this isn’t always the case, so it’s worth exploring.
We mentioned previously that the VIG on a standard -110/-110 game is 4.55%. How did we derive that figure?
First, we take the implied probability of each team winning. For negative odds the formula is:
Negative odds: (-odds)/(-odds + 100)
Which works out to (-(-110))/(-(-110) + 100) = 110/(110 + 100) = 52.38%
Since both teams have the same odds, we simply multiply 52.38% by two and get 104.76%. The 4.76% is called the overround, which creates the profit margin for the book. If sports betting had villains, the overround would be the kingpin.
To get the actual juice, the formula is: 1 – (100/104.76) * 100 = 4.55%
Not all calculations are that simple. Point spreads aren’t always even, and run/puck lines often more closely resemble moneylines. What if a run line had odds of -200/+160? How would we calculate that?
It’s the same concept, except now we also need the formula to calculate implied probability using positive odds:
Favorite: (-(-200)/(-(-200) + 100) = 66.67%
Here, the probabilities add up to 105.13%, the overround is 5.13%, and the juice is 4.88%. That’s a bit high for our liking, but certainly not out of bounds.
ATS, or against the spread, is a metric of how a team is performing versus the spread. Since the spread is an equalizer, if a team has an above .500 record ATS in any given situation, they’ve been defying the expectations set by the book.
That means we should always place a point spread bet when that situation occurs again, right?
Wrong. In the lead-up to a game, the media loves to spin the ATS narrative into something meaningful. Fans will often hear things like “The Mets are 11-4 ATS against the Phillies on Saturdays” or “The Falcons have a 2-5 record ATS on Monday Night Football dating back to 2017.” This sort of situational historical data is virtually meaningless.
Even recent ATS records don’t carry much weight – they’re typically just the result of normal variance. Flip a coin ten times in a row, and it might come up heads eight or more times. Likewise, an NFL team might go 8-2 ATS in their last ten games, or they might go 2-8.
Bookmaking is dynamic. In the rare instance where the bookmaker, and subsequently the sharps, are wrong about a team, they will swiftly account for any errors in their models. Any meaningful trends will be baked into the line by the time the next game rolls around, rendering the ATS metric useless.
If a fan hears an analyst spouting about why everyone should bet on a team based on this-or-that ATS statistic, it’s probably time to change the channel.
If a sportsbook offers pregame point spread betting, it likely provides in-play or “live” spread bets on that same game.
Beyond the obvious, the main difference between pregame and in-play wagering is that in-play point spreads are subject to rapid movement. A single missed free throw will shift an NBA point spread slightly, while a fumble at the opposition’s 20-year line could have a tremendous effect on an NFL point spread, and so forth.
Sportsbooks tend to make greater errors when it comes to in-play wagers. The reason is that they often have days to hammer down their pregame line, but they must calculate and recalculate in-play betting odds constantly. And those calculations must happen quickly.
It’s due to this increased margin of error that in-play point spreads typically have a higher vig. It’s more common to see -115 or -118 than it is -110 on live spreads. Even so, there’s more value to be had betting in-play lines than betting an NFL spread 2 hours before kickoff.
It’s also useful to know how to calculate the difference in value between two slightly different spreads. Is +3 -110 better than +3.5 -125? These are more advanced calculations but are certainly worth keeping in mind as you continue along your sports betting journey.
Yes. Point spreads are one of the most fundamental types of wagers, and every state with legal online sports betting allows point spread betting.
However, not all markets are created equal. For instance, Montana has a single monopoly sports betting app, and the lines are terrible for bettors. At the other end of the spectrum, states like New Jersey and Arizona have numerous books and lenient regulations, granting players much more flexibility and better pricing.
Yes, but the real question is, “Do you want to?”
Remember, bettors pay a tax on every single sports wager they place. Parlay bets assess that tax multiple times, once on each leg of the parlay. On a 2-legger, assuming a standard market VIG on each leg of just over 4.5%, the VIG spikes to 9%. Increase that to 5-legs, and the juice is an astounding 20.8%. That’s greater than some of the worst bets anyone can make in a casino.
Sportsbook marketing teams love to promote parlays because they can offer what look like sweet deals to bettors without risking their hide. Sports betting promotions where customers can get an odds boost or insurance on a 5-leg parlay might reduce the juice from 20% to 10%, but it’ll rarely give bettors an edge. The book has its cake and eats it too.
If you find multiple +EV bets, then by all means, put them in a parlay. Just be warned that major sports betting market point spreads are extremely efficient and notoriously difficult to beat.
Robert Dellafave is an expert sports bettor, professional gambler, and advocate for the fair treatment of sports bettors.
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Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Mark Andrews
A point spread is a bet on the margin of victory in a sporting event. It’s the most popular bet type in basketball and football .
The perceived stronger team (the favorite ) must win by a certain number of points/runs/goals to cash your bet. The worse team (the underdog ) can lose by fewer than that same amount of points, or just win the game.
Let’s use a 2022 NFL Week 1 game as an example.
The Ravens are a -7 favorite against the Jets . That makes New York a +7 underdog.
Baltimore is expected to be much better than New York, hence the big spread.
Sportsbooks apply the spread concept to way more than just the final score. Things like France -2.5 corner kicks vs. Germany, or Chiefs total touchdowns -1.5 vs. the Cowboys are also spreads.
A point spread is a bet on the margin of victory in a game.
The stronger team or player will be favored by a certain number of points, depending on the perceived gap in ability between the two teams.
A minus sign (-) means that team is the favorite.
A plus sign (+) means that team is the underdog.
Here’s how DraftKings displays its point spreads for football, with the point spread boxed in red.
It’s easiest to understand point spreads by seeing them.
Let’s take the 2022 Super Bowl example:
Score: Let’s say the Rams win 27-24 — Bengals spread bettors would win their bets. If the Rams win 30-20, Rams spread bettors would cash.
From Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season:
Score: BUF 45, NYJ 17 (Bills cover -13.5, because they won by 28)
Let’s take another example Week 11:
Score: SF 31, LAR 10 (49ers cover +3.5, because they won the game outright)
You can learn more about American odds , but the number next to the spread is the juice associated with that bet. Most spread bets will be -110, so the sportsbook takes a 10% cut.
That means for every $1 you want to win, you have to risk $1.10. So if you want to win $20 on a bet, you’ll have to risk $22.
If you bet $22 on the Bills -13.5 and Buffalo wins by 14 points, you’ll win $20. If they only win by 10, you lose $22.
Point spreads have an even tax on both sides because we expect each team to cover the point spread about 50% of the time.
When betting moneylines — which requires you to pick the winner straight-up — you can get bigger payouts because the likelihood of the worse team winning the game outright is much lower than it just covering the spread.
It’s easy to bet point spreads at a book like FanDuel or DraftKings. Here’s how it works:
We could write another 5,000 words about how point spreads are truly made, but in the simplest terms, it’s a 3-step process.
“Covering the spread” is another way to say that a team won a point spread bet. In the above example, the Bills or more as a -13.5 favorite means they covered the spread.
If the Jets (+13.5) lost by 13 points or fewer, or won the game, they covered the spread.
What does it mean when a team is 9-2 ATS this season? ATS stands for “against the spread.” So an ATS record is simply wins and losses against the spread.
Low-scoring sports like hockey and baseball do have point spreads, but they’re almost always -1.5 and +1.5.
In hockey, a spread is referred to as the “ puck line .” In baseball, it’s the “ run line .”
The odds are just changed depending on the ability of the team — you won’t get -110 on both sides.
So you’ll get paid less for betting the Yankees -1.5 against the lowly Orioles than you would for betting the Yankees -1.5 against the Astros , when the two teams are more evenly matched.
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By Sam Panayotovich FOX Sports Betting Expert
Betting on sports is becoming quite the hobby, as more and more states legalize across America. Besides, watching games is way more fun when you’ve got a little skin in the game.
As you'd imagine, the NFL is king, drawing the vast majority of the bets placed in the United States every year.
But we also understand that betting on sports can be intimidating. There's a lot to learn for a beginner. So, we wanted to help. In this article, you'll find the definition of a point spread, over/under, moneyline and much more, focused on the NFL, as well as simple examples.
Consider this your sports betting cheat sheet. It doesn’t matter what you bet — $5, $500 or $5,000 — we’re all trying to do the same thing: have some fun and, hopefully, cash a winning ticket.
Let's get started, shall we? Here are some commonly asked questions about betting on the NFL (and sports in general, but we'll concentrate on football for now).
What is a point spread? Why does it usually have a .5 at the end?
The point spread is the expected final score difference between two teams. It is represented as both a negative and positive number; if the spread is 3 points, you'll see that as both -3 and +3. The team that is the favorite to win gets the minus-number (-3); the underdog gets the plus-number (+3).
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