Sports Betting Spread Juice Explained
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Juice (or vigorish) in sports betting is the house’s greatest edge, and it’s what prevents the vast majority of bettors from becoming long-term winners.
If you bet $10 on a game with a friend, the winner gets $10. But when you’re betting at a sportsbook, you have to pay a cut to the book for taking your action.
Juice in sports betting is the cut a sportsbook takes from every bet.
It’s most commonly denoted next to a point spread, like the -110 here at DraftKings:
So what does -110 mean? Check out our post on how to read American odds if you want more detail.
But in short, that -110 is telling you that you must pay a 10% cut on your bet no matter what side you want to bet.
Let’s use that example from DraftKings above.
Penn State is a 6.5-point underdog against Ohio State. And that -110 indicates that for every $10 you want to win on Penn State +6.5, you need to risk $11. It’s the same for Ohio State -6.5 — every $10 you want to win, you must risk $11.
Juice on most football point spreads will be -110 on both sides, but it can vary.
Let’s say the sportsbook is taking more bets on Ohio State, but isn’t quite ready to move the spread from -6.5 to -7 yet. They might adjust the juice to -120 on Ohio State, and even money (+100) on Penn State.
Different sportsbooks, like BetRivers or PointsBet, take different cuts depending on what you’re betting. While a normal NFL point spread should be -110 (10%) on both sides, a player prop might be -120 (20%) on both sides.
That’s why the house has such an advantage — they’re collecting at least $1 for every $10 bet. Over thousands of bets, that adds up.
If you want to get more technical on calculating juice, read on.
Every set of odds in sports betting is just the probability of all the outcomes offered.
An even-money bet like a coin flip is 50% on each side, meaning the implied probability of the event is 100%.
But the probability when betting sports will be greater than 100%, because the sportsbook needs its cut.
You can calculate the juice by adding up the implied probabilities of each side, and then subtracting from 100.
So how do you convert to implied probability?
Use our Odds Converter tool to get implied probabilities, or you can do it yourself.
Use the following formula for anything with a minus sign in front of it, but drop the negative sign.
Negative Odds / (Negative Odds + 100) * 100
For anything with a plus sign, use this to get the implied probability.
The most common juice is -110 on two football point spreads. Using the first formula, we get:
That means you need to win that bet 52.4% of the time to break even in the long run. The sportsbooks have a 2.4% edge over your bet and a 4.8% hold on that game all together before it even begins.
There is. The gap between the two moneylines is the juice. Most commonly, sportsbooks will offer a 20-cent line.
Take this hypothetical Yankees-Red Sox game in which New York is favored.
The implied probability of the Yankees winning is 58.33%. For the Red Sox, it’s 45.45%. That adds up to 103.78%, meaning the sportsbook has a 3.78% hold on this wager.
Some books will offer 10-cent lines on baseball moneylines, meaning in this scenario, the Yankees could be -135 and the Red Sox +125.
You may look at Super Bowl odds and see a bunch of teams with long odds and think you’re getting a great deal. But futures markets have more juice baked in than almost any other market.
Remember, odds are just the sum of probability for all outcomes offered. There are 32 possible Super Bowl winners, each assigned a probability.
When you add those up Super Bowl probabilities, it comes out to much higher than 100% — in this example, it’s 133%. That means the book is taking 33% of every dollar wagered.
That’s much higher than the 3.78% hold offered for that hypothetical Yankees-Red Sox game we mentioned above.
You should always calculate juice on futures markets and find a sportsbook offering the most fair odds.
It’s important to remove the juice on each implied probability so you can see what the betting market truly thinks about each team.
It’s not as simple as taking half the sportsbook’s hold and subtracting it from each team’s implied probability, but it is quite simple.
Team A Implied Probability / (Team A IP + Team B IP)
Red Sox: 45.45% / (45.45% + 58.33%) = 44%
Yankees: 58.33% / (58.33% + 45.45%) = 56%
Here’s a quick video tutorial on how to remove juice in Excel.
If you can find a sportsbook that’s dealing -105 on both sides of a point spread, it’s a huge advantage for the bettor.
Let’s say you bet 135 NFL games against the spread in a season, and went 75-60, which is just over 55%. That’s an unbelievably good NFL betting season.
But here is your ROI and profit and loss at different levels of juice if you bet $100 per game over those 135 games.
If you’re using a book that offers -115 or -120 for NFL point spreads, find a new book.
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Juice, or vig, in sports betting, is the cut or amount charged by a sportsbook or bookie for taking a bet from a gambler. Sportsbooks use juice to ensure they make money on a bet, regardless of the outcome. Really quickly here, it’s easy to see why bettors don’t want the juice! The higher the cut that the sportsbooks take, the more bettors have to wager to win profit. It’s as simple as that. In sports betting, the less juice, the better!
Understanding Juice/Vig
Most sportsbooks that are well established do not want to have a vested interest in the outcome of a game. Rather than wanting to chance it for one side win, the sportsbook would rather keep it fairly even and profit regardless. Thus, the juice comes in. Take a line of -110 and -110, where two bettors wager $10 each on the opposite two sides. No matter what the outcomes of the bets are, the sportsbook still wins. Why? Because a $10 bet at -110 will only net the bettor a $9.10 profit while risking $10. Either way, the sportsbook wins $.90. Imagine this over the course of the year, with every bet that’s ever placed through the sportsbook, and the profits add up quickly!
Calculating Juice/Vig
First and foremost, juice can be easily observed by the naked eye after becoming aware of what it is. Experienced bettors know that an EVEN bet would be a bet with no juice. It’s a completely fair bet. The further the juice gets away from even, the higher the juice gets.
For example, the sportsbook will automatically take a higher cut of a -110/-110 bet than the EVEN bet. The sportsbook has a chance to take home an even higher cut at -115/-110, and it could go on down the road like this forever. Prop bets tend to have even more juice attached, with either side of a player prop sitting at -115 or even -120 depending on the sportsbook.
Luckily, for inexperienced sports bettors who do not understand juice as much, it can be easily calculated. In fact, the juice percentage can be calculated without even knowing the outcome of the event or the money risked. Here’s how to calculate it.
Juice (Vig) = 100 x (1 – p x q / p + q)
In this equation, the p and q are the decimal payouts for each outcome (the x is a multiplication symbol). Plug the numbers in, and the juice can be easily found for a bet.
When do Sportsbooks Adjust Juice?
Sportsbooks do adjust juice. To people new to sports betting, this can be a confusing thing. Why do sportsbooks sometimes change it? Adjusting juice can be a precursor to changing the actual line of a game. If the money on a line is starting to get a little dicey for a sportsbook, changing the juice can be an easy way to ensure they will bring home more of a profit, without changing the entire line just yet. Many times, changing the juice is a signal that the line could soon change.
For new bettors, it can help to think of it in this way. If an absurd amount of money is bet on one side of a wager, the sportsbook will most likely adjust the line to entice more people to bet on the other side. Remember, established sportsbooks usually don’t want a dog in the fight. They receive enough money from the juice instead.
If a wager is large, but isn’t large enough to totally change the line, the sportsbook can simply adjust the juice. Increasing the juice on one side even just a few percentage points will do two things.
First, it will entice people to bet a certain way, just like a line change. Next, an increase in juice will always net the sportsbook a higher profit. Again, even if it’s just a small amount, every dollar matters. Being aware of the juice under these scenarios can help new bettors save, or net, a few more bucks.
Juice will also change as the odds change for something to happen. Obviously, the chances of a baseball game going into extra innings if the score is 12-2 in the eighth inning are slim. So, the sportsbook’s juice on the bet will be very high for it to avoid extras and very low to go into extra innings. This is true all throughout any bets.
Why Does Juice Matter?
Understanding the basics of juice are essential to understanding how to be an effective bettor. In fact, everything written above is important to understand before even thinking about more complicated facets of betting. Juice affects how much money the bettor will receive in return from a wager. Juice can change what side a bettor wants to bet on. Juice can even be a signal for prospective bettors that an entire line shift is coming.
Consider it a fee for betting. No, betting isn’t free. Of course, sportsbooks win big off of stupid bettors. But juice is why they stay in business. Always have an understanding of why juice exists in a bet.
If the juice is crazy high, then the bettor might want to look elsewhere for a bet. As mentioned, if a sportsbook changes the juice, it could be a signal of a future line change. As a bettor, use that information to know, or at least guess, when the best time to place a bet is.
If a line change does seem imminent based off of the juice, either bet immediately to receive good odds, or wait if the odds will be improved! Juice is a key concept for people new to the sports betting world to understand. Get to know it, and use the knowledge accordingly!
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