Sports Bet Spread Explained
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Sports Bet Spread Explained
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In May of 2018, the supreme court struck down a federal law that bars gambling on football, basketball, baseball, and other sports in US states. This rule change gave states the go-ahead to legalize betting on sports. One research firm estimated 32 states would probably offer sports betting within five years. With the growing trend of Sports Betting becoming more excusable, interest on how to bet on sports has emerged. However, on first glance, most people don't fully understand how betting odds work and find the process difficult to understand. The following is a quick walkthrough of betting odds explained for those who have always been interested in learning.
Any time you wager on a game, you'll notice either a " - " or a " + " followed by a 3, 4, or 5 digit number next to the spread, total, or moneyline. This number, + or -, indicates the probability that the wager has to win, as well as how much money you will win (or lose). Understanding how odds work should be the first thing you learn if you plan on having success in the often cold world of sports betting.
Probability itself has a rather simple definition; " the extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case". Easy enough. However; in sports betting, odds on either side of a wager may not have a total probability that equals 100%. All sports betting odds are a little different but lets up the NFL point spread odds from the Rams vs. Patriots Super Bowl from 2019 as an example.
The Patriots were listed as -135 favorites, while the Rams were listed as +115 dogs. The Patriots had an implied 57.4% chance to win, while the Rams had an implied 46.5% chance to win. Wondering how the total probability of a game between two teams adds up to 103.9%? Vegas makes this possible in order to collect a tax on each side of a wager known as "Vigorish", which is another critical juncture of the sports betting industry. It is important to understand that vigorish does not always correspond with probability. When Vegas sets a line on a game or a total, they do so with the idea that the game or total has a 50/50 chance to land on either side of their number. The vig on spread/total bets is most commonly -110. This does not mean that each side of the spread or total has a 52.4% chance of hitting, its simply their way of taxing the bettor .
As alluded to above, vigorish is the amount of money charged to a bettor in order to place a bet on either side. Let's use our Pats vs. Rams example again. If a bettor places a wager on the Patriots to win $100 he will have to risk $135 Dollars. If a bettor places a $100 bet on the Rams to win he will end up winning $115. This leaves a difference of $20 on the table that the sportsbook would make if the underdog wins, while the book will lose nothing if the favorite wins. So for this particular event, the vig is $20. The same goes for spread bets. If the Patriots are -2.5 (-110) and the Rams are +2.5 (-110), the vigorish is still $20.
The easiest way to calculate vigorish on a certain game is to take the amount you would risk betting on a favorite to win $100 and the amount you would win betting $100 dollars on an underdog and split the difference. The larger the favorite, the higher the vig.
Whether you're betting the favorite or the underdog, it's important to understand your break-even points at a given vig. Below is a chart to give you an idea of the win percentage you'll need to maintain in order see a profit on your wagers at a given price.
A bettor who hits 60% of their bets at -150 juice and a bettor who hits 40% of their bets at +150 are both stuck spinning wheels, even though the bettor betting the favorite wins 20% more of his bets than the other. So in this instance, a bettor betting games with -150 juice would have to hit above 60% of their bets to become profitable while the bettor betting games at +150 juice would have to hit above 40% of their bets in order to become profitable.
When betting a favorite, you will see a "-" ahead of the implied odds your wager has to win. This number represents the amount of money you will have to risk in order to win $100. When betting an underdog, you will see a "+" ahead of the implied odds your wager has to win. This number represents the amount of money you will win if you risk $100.
As you can see in the above chart, a bettor betting the favorite has to lay the odds to win $100, while the bettor betting the underdog will win the odds when betting $100. The greater the favorite, the more money you risk for a smaller return. The greater the underdog, the less money you risk for a larger return.
Betting odds tell us the implied probability of the outcome of a game as well as how many money we will win or lose. Betting on a team at -150 odds implies that you have a 60% chance to win, that you must risk $150 if you wish to win $100, and you must win more than 60% of your bets at those odds in order to become profitable.
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Placed my first bet in accounting class my Sophomore year in high school. About 3 years later, I started taking a true interest in betting. I began reading books and discovering systems that have displayed steady long-term profit. The most important thing to understand when betting is that discipline is just as valuable as the picks themselves. My aim is to bring you the best bets through the use of data, steam moves, reverse line moves, contrarian plays, and trends. I don't bet on teams; I bet on numbers.
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In relation to spread betting Sporting Index Ltd is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority registration number 150404 which can be verified here . Please ensure you understand the risks with sports spread betting as it involves a high level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. In relation to fixed-odds betting , Sporting Index Limited is licensed and regulated in the UK by the Gambling Commission under account number 27343 . Remember to bet safely. In relation to territories other than the UK and Republic of Ireland, please read our disclaimer .
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Please note: spread betting can result in losses greater than your initial deposit or credit limit. For more information see our Risk Disclosure Notice .
Sports Spread Betting is without doubt the most exciting form of sports betting available. Here, we address some key topics and answer some common questions; use the list below to jump to the section that you're interested in:
- Sports Spread Betting Explained
- Is Sports Spread Betting Risky?
- How To Place A Spread Bet On Sports
- Sports Spread Betting For Beginners
- How Does Spread Betting Differ From Fixed Odds Betting?
- Sporting Index Welcome Promotions
- SPORTS SPREAD BETTING EXPLAINED -
It's important to understand the concept of the terms 'Buying' and 'Selling'. This really is one of those things that sounds complicated but is actually very simple. Fundamentally, the ' spread ' is the range within which we believe the result of a given market will fall. This spread is comprised of two numbers - a ' Sell ' price and a ' Buy ' price. If you think the final result of the market will be greater than the Buy price then you would 'Buy'. Conversely, if you think it will be less than the Sell price then you would 'Sell'.
In football for example, the spread for the Match Total Goals market might be 2.9-3.1 - this simply means that, on average, we think there will be a total of three goals in the game. If you think there will be more than three goals in the game you would 'Buy', but if you think there will be fewer then you would 'Sell'. It really is that simple!
Below, we answer common sports spread betting questions, explain how to place your first spread bet and supply some sports spread betting tips for beginners.
- IS SPORTS SPREAD BETTING RISKY? -
The amount of risk involved is entirely up to you and there are a number of steps that you can take to avoid taking on more risk than you would like.
1: USE SMALL STAKES – You can stake as little as 1p on selected markets. You might not win big amounts with small stakes but you can be confident that the size of any potential losses will be small and your betting bank will go further, allowing you try out a greater variation of our markets.
2: PICKING THE RIGHT MARKETS – The markets we offer have varying degrees of volatility. A market such as Total Goals in a game of football is unlikely to experience a result that is too far from the spread. Total Goal Minutes, however, could well settle a long way from the spread, in either direction. Read more about how football spread betting works .
3: CUT YOUR LOSSES – If you have placed a bet that is clearly going against you, the safe option could be to protect your balance and cash out of the position before it gets any worse. Cut your losses early and protect your betting bank.
- HOW TO PLACE A SPREAD BET ON SPORTS -
Placing your first Spread Bet is possibly the most exciting bet you’ll ever place! For some, it’s a daunting prospect but we’re here to explain how to bet on a spread and enjoy it!
As explained above, for your first bet we recommend using smaller stakes and picking a low volatility market – that is, a market where the most likely outcomes are not going to be too far from the ‘Sell’ and ‘Buy’ prices. We’d also recommend that you pick a market that allows you to work out the worst case scenario. For example:
Total Goals in a football match may be priced at 2.8-3.0 and so the worst-case scenario if you place a ‘Buy’ bet is a loss of three times your stake because the lowest possible outcome is a settle price of 0 goals in a match that finishes 0-0. Here, if you had placed a ‘Buy’ bet with a stake of £5 per point the worst-case scenario is a £15 loss, calculated as:
(Settled Price – Buy Price) x Stake
(0 – 3) x £5
-3 x £5 = £15 Loss
Of course, it follows that if the game is a 3-3 thriller then the market would settle at six and the profit would be calculated as:
(Settled Price – Buy Price) x Stake
(6 – 3) x £5
3 x £5 = £15 Profit
Another example could be the Team Total Sixes market in an ODI Cricket match which may be priced at 4-5 and so the worst-case scenario if you place a ‘Buy’ bet is a loss of five times your stake because the lowest possible settle price is 0. Here, if you had placed a ‘Buy’ bet with a stake of £5 the worst-case scenario is a £25 loss, calculated as:
(Settled Price – Buy Price) x Stake
(0 – 5) x £5
-5 x £5 = £25 Loss
Again, it follows that if the Team hits ten sixes then the market would settle at ten and the profit would be calculated as:
(Settled Price – Buy Price) x Stake
(10 – 5) x £5
5 x £5 = £25 Profit
In each of the above cases you are in the position of being able to calculate what your worst possible loss could be whilst knowing that, with spread betting, for every additional goal scored or six hit over the ‘Buy’ price your potential profits increase!
- SPORTS SPREAD BETTING FOR BEGINNERS -
If you’re new to sports spread betting then there a few things that you can do to ease yourself into it before you start upping your stakes and trying new markets. Here are the Sporting Index top sports spread betting tips…
1: Start with small stakes. We mentioned this above but it bears repeating! You probably won’t win a lot of money but more importantly, you’ll be in control of your losses. This means you can make your betting bank go further.
2: Stick to markets where you know the worst-case scenario and then build up from there. Good beginners’ markets are those that will not settle too far from the spread price – think Total Goals instead of Total Goal Minutes.
3: Make sure you know exactly what the market is and how the result is calculated. Most of our markets are intuitive but some are more complex; to find out how a market works use the ‘i’ symbol next to the market name.
4: If you’re not sure on anything, don’t get involved in the action – our excellent Customer Services team are always available to answer your questions.
5: Make the most of promotions! Make sure that you are subscribed to receive both emails and texts otherwise you’ll be missing out on our promotions that we send to thousands of clients every single week.
For more information on our markets and some sports spread betting examples you can navigate to the sport of your choice be
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