South Africa Votes — A Historic Election

South Africans have voted in a highly anticipated national election, marking a significant moment for the country's democracy. The results will shape the future political leadership and direction of Africa's most industrialized economy.

Voters turned out to make their voices heard, with key issues like the economy, unemployment, and inequality topping the agenda. The ruling ANC party faced a strong challenge from opposition parties.

Read more about the recent parliamentary elections in South Africa in a comment by Zolani Mkiwa, Chairperson of Select Committee on Petitions and Executive Undertakings of the National Council of Provinces of the Parliament of the Republic of South Africa:

1. Our elections were organised and carried out very professional. The process included a combination of digital and manual systems to mitigate any form of risk;

2. ⁠There were several differences in this election. We had more than 300 political parties contesting. We also had independent candidates for the first time. There was more interest from the capital, and they put a lot of money towards right wing formations that represent big business and western powers. The media was very negative towards the ruling party. They were driving a narrative for a regime change;

3. ⁠The elections were free, fair and credible. They were also peaceful. The ruling party, African National Congress for the first time in 30 years lost its majority in Parliament. It got 40% of the vote but it remains the biggest party in the country with the electorate giving it 6 million plus votes in this recent election out of 15 million voters who turned out in this one. The turnout was also at a low this time around. (the other result are attached on the photo);

4. ⁠The public has gracefully accepted the results but there are some who feel this election was problematic. The mood is strange in the country. This was not really expected. Others are saying it’s a very suspicious outcome. Perhaps there was rigging involving outsiders;

5. ⁠For the first time there will be a government of a coalition. It’s uncertain how things will go. The most likely scenarios for South Africa after the 2024 parliamentary elections are described below.

Ranking of possible coalitions between political parties:

Scenario 1 (ANC + MKP +EFF)

Working with EFF and MKP, will ensure the ANC's transformation agenda will be entrenched and accelerated with possibility of two third majority to amend any policy directives like expropriation of the land and international solidarities with the people of Gaza and BRICS alignment. However, in the immediate to short term period, this combination will bring about market jittery and reduced business confidence. This will however protect the brand and legacy of the ANC as champion for transformation. This scenario is ranked third as the most preferred coalition.

Scenario 2 (ANC + DA)

Any coalition with the DA will please the market in general with short-term gains. This is however not in the best interest of ANC voters and South Africa in general as they view the DA as the party for the minority who are refusing to open the economy for all to participate. This coalition will delay and stall many transformational agenda items (BELLA Bill, NHI, etc.) specially if they were to occupy the position of Speaker or any role like SCOPA. The DA has a strong held view that the ANC is a corrupt organisation that must be exposed and decimated. Bringing the DA to "the dinner table" of the cabinet will be tantamount to "suicide". This scenario is ranked last as the least preferred to our developmental state as it would not be in their best interest.

Scenario 3 (ANC + МКР +EFF + IFP + PA)

This scenario puts several organisations together and may bring about increased or diverse views from coloured communities to the Zulu nations which are very dynamic and sensitive towards inclusivity. There will also be more stability since no single party may walk away to impact the coalition. Importantly the brand ANC will not be impacted since each party has its own constituency. There is also likelihood that the ANC might regain its ground and eats back from these parties. There might be a need to develop a framework to govern such a coalition scenario. This Scenario is ranked 4th as the most preferred.

Scenario 4 (ANC + MKP)

This scenario has only two parties representing largely the same constituency as current and former members of the ANC. This scenario might be very unstable due to "two bulls in one kitchen" and personality cults. While there should be no measure differences in policy and international solidarities, MKP is a new party that still needs to have its own leadership and thus a highly unstable organisation. This coalition maybe attacked as a coalition of corruption and might impact on the market and may not be good for economic growth of South Africa in the short-term. With the posture of the MKP not fully understood, it is unclear how this will affect the brand ANC as it will largely be dependent on how MKP will conduct itself. Thus, the ANC may win back its constituency, but may struggle to bring back the middle class or new potential voters. This scenario is ranked 5th most preferred coalition.

Scenario 5a (ANC + EFF+ IFP)

This scenario provide for a much better stable government with each servicing its constituency and aligned transformational agenda. There is however suspicions towards IFP as party funded by moonlight-pack, is unclear what impact it may have, noting the antagonistic relations they current have with the EFF in KZN municipalities. In this coalition the ANC will continue with is work to bring about a better life for South Africa. This scenario is the second most preferred coalition.

Scenario 5b (ANC + EFF+ PA)

This scenario is the most preferred as it has mainly stable parties with different constituencies. All these parties believe in transformation of the country and the current social agenda by the ANC, though other parties will be more radical in approach, something generally lacking in the ANC government. The ANC brand will not be affected but may also win back its constituencies lost due to failure to be aggressive in transformation agenda.

Conclusion

The decision of the ANC to constitute a coalition government rest with the authority of the National Executive Committee (NEC) that will mandate the NWC and the National Office Bearers. This analysis is also note worthy to pay close attention to the sponsored narrative by the media and funded organisations with mandate to bring about regime change.

There is no easy coalition, each has its own dynamic advantages and disadvantages. The ANC may decide which of these factors are more important than the others. In this scenario model we weighted all the factors equally and the ranking was based on key factors mostly encapsulated in the ANC manifesto and the current environment of high unemployment, inequality, poverty, crime, energy challenges, antagonism between unipolar and multipolar world, including the need to have world peace, freedom and respect of countries sovereignty.