So thats the UK plan?
What exactly is the the plan here? Last couple of weeks felt like one big wait. And for the last week, we have been waiting for the university to do something. Anything really. And it seems that they have been waiting too, everyone has been waiting for Boris to explain the government position, introduce some kind of plan... But no, the plan is to do nothing. Nada. Just wait for population to develop immunity [1]...
I mean what a noble goal, except that we don't know whether people will develop immunity for long enough for it to matter... [4]
What we know for sure is that for this to happen, based on existing data, up to 2 million would end up in ICU [2]... Does NHS have that kind of capacity to treat them? fuck no. Do they have any plan how to avoid being the next Italy? Again, no. [3].
I am not scared of the virus, but I am getting pretty scared of living in a country where so many have it. Boris's chief scientist thinks its ok for a country to have 40 million infected people. What effect on society would that have, when so many people would start dying, when doctors start turning away patients? Do you really think everyone is gonna stay calm and carry on? I dont want to experience living in a society under that much pressure.
No I expect Boris policies are not going to survive another week. They are already being reversed today [5], but the government still seem to be stuck in this waiting period, worrying about stuff like "COM-B model of behaviour change"[6]... But if your plan is for 40 million people to get sick you should not be looking at behavior science; you should be looking at martial law.
I think this policy will be abandoned completely when the confirmed cases hits 10k. But what will be the cost of waiting?
[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51865915
[2] https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1238393579183243265
[3] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/03/icu-doctor-nhs-coronavirus-pandemic-hospitals
[4] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work
[5] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn