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Making smart stock choices the Warren Buffett way
Warren Buffett’s sayings, whether he actually said them or not, define a stance on investing that can guide investors through both up and down markets.
Warren Buffett is known as a source of advice and insights to investors and entrepreneurs alike. Some of his advice becomes sayings that are repeated over and over again. His comments are treated as nuggets of wisdom that are then interpreted in a variety of ways. Perhaps the open-ended nature of many of his sayings and concepts are intended to be interpreted as needed by those who receive them. And Buffett himself has been shown to change over time, an example of taking his own advice to always be learning.
Certain pieces of Warren Buffett’s advice are quoted exactly. Others are paraphrased. And some may be like the sayings of Mark Twain in that it is unclear whether he actually said them or not. Here are some examples of sayings and concepts that are particularly popular perhaps because they seem especially insightful.
One quite popular saying attributed to Buffett goes:
“Be fearful while others are greedy and greedy while others are fearful.”
This is an interesting saying in that it is very exact, yet is also quite difficult to apply. As one analyst pointed out, it is the “hardest principle for investors to nail down in practice, as it contravenes human psychology.”
It can be considered encouragement to avoid herd mentalities and to take contrarian positions. But in an extended bull market, at what point should one go against the grain? The analyst mentioned above happened to give the advice to start buying defensive stocks that gave dividends on the day before the most recent bull market began to retreat.
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Buffett once suggested buying defensive stocks that provide dividends on the day before the most recent bull market started retreating. (Photo by Alfonso de Castro via Flickr. CC BY-SA 2.0.)
This analyst suggested a stock then that he’s suggesting again in a down market, stating that it has strengths in whichever way the market turns. So at one point, he claims to be following Buffett’s advice and at another, he seems to want to have it either way. On the other hand, a stock that appears undervalued, gives dividends, has downside protection and growth potential sounds like a great stock.
A longer version of the above quote sounds a bit paranoid:
“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Buffett seems to be saying ignore the crowds entirely, yet if the door is closed, how can one know whether others are greedy or fearful?
Perhaps the first analyst’s position includes a bit of Buffett’s advice that does not seem to come from a single quote but from a perspective shared from a variety of angles.
Warren Buffett often speaks of the necessity for learning new things every day throughout one’s life. Another hefty quote, one which, like the above, does not seem to have an actual source though it must have come from somewhere, speaks to learning. It is said that Buffett was asked for the key to success. And he is said to have pointed to a pile of books and stated:
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“Read 500 pages like this every day. That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it.”
Clearly, Warren Buffett has a lot of time to read. Or is a speed reader. Whichever the case, like many great executives, he has created a life in which he is able to put a great deal of time into learning. So perhaps the underlying wisdom is to find a way to create such a life for yourself.
Arturo Garcia started out as a political writer for a local newspaper in Peru, before covering big-league sports for national broadsheets. Eventually he began writing about innovative tech and business trends, which let him travel all over North and South America. Currently he is exploring the world of Bitcoin and cannabis, two hot commodities which he believes are poised to change history.
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Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions Paperback – March 5, 2002
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"In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa tell us in plain language how to make optimal decisions in our everyday lives. They combine one hundred collective years of experience in an exceptional resource that takes the reader step-by-step through problem formulation and final decision." –Jerome P. Kassirer, editor-in-chief, New England Journal of Medicine
"Throughout Smart Choices, Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa provide valuable insight and guidance on the inevitable and ongoing negotiation with yourself when facing a difficult decision. By following their effective, systematic process, anyone can make important personal or business decisions with greater clarity, confidence, and efficiency." –Stephen J. Hemsley, former head of Strategy, Technology, and Operating Professional Service Lines, Arthur Andersen
should I live?
Is it time to switch careers?
What is the best course of action for me?
Decisions shape our experiences, from choosing which job offer to accept, to buying the right car, to selecting a good accountant. How do we know which choice is the smart one? How can we be consistent and confident in our decisions? In this book from the three leading authorities on decision-making, readers learn how to approach all types of decisions with a simple set of skills developed by professors from Harvard, MIT, and the University of Southern California.
Combining solid research with common sense and practical experience, this user-friendly guide shows readers how to assess deep-seated objectives, create a comprehensive set of alternatives, determine likely consequences, make tradeoffs, and grapple with uncertainty. Not only will readers learn how to make decisions, they will learn how to make the smartest decisions. For anyone ca
Publisher : Crown Business; unknown edition (March 5, 2002)
Language : English
Paperback : 256 pages
ISBN-10 : 0767908864
ISBN-13 : 978-0767908863
Item Weight : 11.2 ounces
Dimensions : 5.19 x 0.54 x 7.99 inches
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This book offers a very sound approach to making decisions, but a wikihow article or a 2min youtube video with visualizations would just as well do the trick - maybe even be easier to follow for following along with calculations. There's tons of "filler content" all essentially saying "have you thought about it" or "seek out more information" which becomes tiresome for someone looking for a clear and concise guide and makes the price for the book too high relative to what it offers.
This was a great book. I had to read it for a college class I was taking. It really helped me make some big decisions about my career. This book does a great job at making you look at decisions from an objective viewpoint. It takes a lot of the emotion out of the decision and helps you make a decision based on the facts. I realize that humans are emotional creatures and that emotions are important in decision making. I think that's a fundamental characteristic that makes humans different from other animals. However, often we let emotions play a much bigger role than they should in our decisions. Smart Choices helped me analyze my decision making from a less emotional viewpoint and helped me make better decisions all around. I would definitely recommend this book to anyone, especially people in their 20s that have many big decisions ahead of them in the near future.
I bought the paperback version of this book a number of years ago. I find this tome to be a valuable source for decision making. I decided to buy the Kindle version to have easy access to the great book. I highly recommend this resource to anyone who needs a clear, concise process for decision making.
There are dozens of books on decision making for the general public by self-proclaimed experts and academics. Usually I steer clear of such books but somehow I was persuaded to buy this book because of positive reviews here as well as due to presence of Dr Howard Raiffra, one of the authors. I have read Dr Raiffra’s more academically-inclined books before and his writing has left a deep impression - I consider him as one of world’s top experts on decision making.
This book is meant for the general public and written in a clear and concise manner complete with numerous realistic examples where the decision making methodologies are illustrated. The authors, despite their academic and business background, have steered cleared of using too abstract concepts and theories instead taken a more practical approach.
This has resulted in a wonderful book that is both easily understood but at the same time teaches powerful concepts and methodologies for decision making in work and personal life.
What I like about this book is the way the book is organized and the numerous examples provided. It makes the book easy to read and understand. The examples are realistic problems and not some text-book examples that have little to do with the real world. No complicated and complex mathematics or abstract concepts are used.
I have read dozens of books on decision making and this is certainly the best book for the general public that I know of – by a country mile. It is easy and clear enough for the general reader (and even teens) but contains powerful concepts to satisfy even business professionals.
I would strongly recommend this book for the general readers and business professionals who are new to the decision making. However this book is not meant for business professionals or academics looking for advanced or complex decision making.
I just finished reading Smart Choices and boy, what a wakeup call! I always thought I was pretty good at making decisions until I realized I what am amateur I am.
Smart Choices drills down into the eight steps of problem solving, discussing each at length. The book also discusses common pitfalls, which I saw myself in just about every pitfall mentioned.
The authors suggest that we, as readers, should get out there and practice being better problem solvers. We should also get more pro-active about solving problems. This is all great advice.
I had to admit I bounced over some of the more technical bits. This book probably has to be read several times, or referred to often, as it's hard to pick up all the techniques in one read.
Better problem solving is key to a better quality of life. Who wouldn't want to make better decisions and reap the benefits? I would highly advise reading Smart Choices because it sets the bar much higher for better decisions, and certainly gives the reader plenty of new skills and things to think about that should lead to better results!
I was really surprised by how much I was helped by this book. I consider Smart Choices to be the best book I had ever purchased. Since I went to college, I was faced with making important life decisions. Unfortunately, I made very few smart decisions in my life. As I look back, I would have changed it all. I definitely could have changed it all with the help of this book.
This book has been written by top experts in this field. This book, at times, goes into too much complicated analysis of what has to be done for someone to make a smart decision. This is not necessarily bad since it tends to illustrate many points that the authors try to bring home. The authors do admit that for many life decisions, too much analysis is not often needed. If you follow some main steps that the authors advice you to take, you will be on your way to making smart decisions. I believe even if you use 50% of what this book tells you to do, you are more than likely to make a smart decision.
Once again, I wish I had this book a decade ago. I would not have been broke, unhappy, lonely, unhealthy and with so much useless education right now. I already made a few decisions based on this book. I hope I will continue to make progress. Do read this book! It can really change your life faster than all self-help books combined out there.
Despite the distinguished credentials of the authors I felt the book drew out a fairly simple idea and ran out of steam
4.0 out of 5 stars Among a few good books on the area
Despite the fact that decision-making is core to management profession, there are few books on the topic that are based on a scientific methodology. I would recommend this book for those trying to understand how heuristics and science can be combined to improve the probability of making right decisions.
5.0 out of 5 stars ottimo testo sul decision making
Decisamente un ottimo libro, da leggere e rileggere infinite volte. Gli autori in maniera chiara, rigorosa e schematica illustrano la filosofia del processo decisionale in condizioni d'incertezza e mutevoli nel tempo al fine di prevenire i problemi ed assumere la miglior decisione possibile, ossia quella con i migliori risultati attesi e con le maggiori probabilita' di verificarsi. Nessuna ricetta magica ma bensi' un modus operandi e forma mentis di grande utilita'. Assolutamente raccomandato!
Super buch für systematische und logische Entscheidungen unter Einbezug von Konsequenzen und Alternativen. Nimmt man das Buch ernst ist es ein Arbeitsbuch mit wenigen Seiten aus welchem ein mehrfaches an Output entspringt
5.0 out of 5 stars Une démarche claire et structurée pour prendre des décisions
Une décision "smart" correspond à une décision prise en toute connaissance de causes en suivant un process d'analyse et réflexion par étape: 1. Quel est le problème? 2. Quelles sont les objectifs ? 3. Quelles sont les alternatives/différentes solutions possibles? 4. Quels sont les risques associés et 5. Comment arbitrer?
La démarche peut paraître un peu lourde, mais d'après ses auteurs, tout se joue au niveau des trois premières étapes: "pas de bonne décision, sans bonnes alternatives proposés à un problème correctement posée".
Il suffit en outre d'un simple feuille de papier pour la mettre en place.
Si les auteurs expliquent qu'une décision "smart" ne se traduit pas nécessairement par des résultats positifs, celui-ci en augmente cependant forcément les chances.
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