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By registering, you indicate that you agree to the Terms Of Service. All rights reserved. Stop stealing our stuff and ripping off our features, please. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. Weather info Powered by Dark Sky. During the regular season, there are a lot of factors that will influence the way teams use their players. They may want to get an extended look at a younger player, keep a key piece's legs fresh for the postseason, or maybe experiment with a new gameplan to see how things play out. This can lead to some quick fluctuations that may not be hard to predict. That's not an issue in the playoffs. The only motivation there is winning, and it's going to make these teams more predictable. Throughout the season, most teams have likely had one game that qualifies as being something close to 'must-win. They're going to use their best, and those games are going to give us a good indicator of what to expect in the playoffs. That's going to be a key part of our task for the wild card round of the playoffs. We want to identify when those must-win games took place and see what the teams did in those spots. Then, we can see what that means from a daily fantasy perspective so we know who benefits and could pop up as a value. We've also got a couple of injury situations primed to tilt both the two-game and four-game slates, and we've got to account for those, as well. So let's get it cracking now. We're going to go game-by-game for wild card weekend and see if we can figure out how teams are going to use their players when their season is on the line. When we do so, some clear values are going to emerge, making it easier to afford the studs we so desperately want to use. This game has a blend of the two things discussed in the open: Will Fuller 's injury will play a key role in determining how we view the slate, and Devin Singletary 's usage in a must-win game makes him one of the better values on the board. Let's start with Fuller and then get to Singletary later. Fuller is shaping up as a game-time decision after practicing in a limited fashion this entire week. That would seem to bode well for him, but he was also limited heading into Week 14 before he eventually wound up sitting. The good news is that this is the first game on the slate, so we'll know Fuller's status before anything locks. The bad news is that our entire strategy for the slate could hinge on his availability. The person whose stock is influenced most by Fuller's availability is Deshaun Watson. Watson has basically been a different player when Fuller has been on the field this year, as you can see in these splits via The Quant Edge's injury tool with 'aDOT' standing for average depth of target. Not only does Watson become less effective without Fuller, but he becomes more conservative. That's huge for his value. If Fuller plays, Watson is arguably the best quarterback play for the four-game slate, and he's the clear standout on the two-game Saturday-only slate. If Fuller sits, you can still justify Watson due to his rushing upside, but his floor gets shaky in a hurry. The other guy whose value would move significantly depending on Fuller's availability is DeAndre Hopkins. In the games Fuller hasn't played this year, all of the high-leverage looks have gone to Hopkins. A 'deep' target is one at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Nobody else has even been relevant in that time. You could consider Kenny Stills or Darren Fells as dart throws, but Hopkins would have an elite floor even while dealing with coverage from Tre'Davious White. If Fuller plays, you can obviously still use Hopkins. The first takeaway is that Hopkins gets a downgrade if Fuller plays. The second is that Fuller himself would be desirable if he's able to give it a go. There's big risk of re-injury with Fuller, given that he's coming off roughly his 39th injury of the past three years, and that certainly hurts his appeal. The one way you could feel really good about Fuller is if we were to get confirmation ahead of time via a late-night Adam Schefter tweet or any other means that Fuller is good to go. In that scenario, it would seem that he would be prepared to handle a full workload, and we could bask in his upside for a bargain salary. If we don't get that, then it's likely wise to proceed with a bit more caution, both with Fuller and with Watson. The other player who would benefit from Fuller playing is Carlos Hyde. Hyde played The Saturday-only slate, specifically, is severely lacking in elite running-back options, meaning we'll have to consider guys with imperfect roles. If we think the odds the Texans move the ball and snag a win are higher, then we should give Hyde a bump in our minds. That's not a shot at Hyde, though; not many players are as tasty as the Buffalo Bills ' bellcow. For the Bills, their must-win game was in Week If they had won that game, they would have had a shot to win the AFC East. They were going all out, meaning it's a great signal for us of what to expect this weekend. In that game, Singletary's snap rate was a whopping He finished the game with 15 carries and just 1 target, but it forces us to give him a significant boost in our minds. The Texans are getting J. Watt back on Saturday, and they've allowed just 4. It's not a great matchup for Singletary. But with his role relative to his salary, he should be a fixture in our lineups. Brown has failed to hit 50 receiving yards in three of the past five games, but his workload has still been superb since Singletary's role expanded. It's understandable that his production would dip. But with the Texans grading out as 24th against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, this is a different scenario. Brown is another potential core play within this Bills offense. Cole Beasley -- as you can see above -- has a good enough role where we can filter him through, as well. Beasley's getting enough work to be an option, but he's not a priority in his salary tier. You could, instead, target Dawson Knox when value-hunting on the Bills. Knox played As for Josh Allen , it's hard to expect him to be an efficient passer here, even with the Texans' defensive woes. The Bills are the worst schedule-adjusted passing offense on the slate, and Allen ranked just 27th in Passing Net Expected Points NEP per drop back out of 42 qualified passers for the full season. NEP is the model numberFire uses to track the expected points added or subtracted on each play throughout the season, and Passing NEP accounts for expected points lost on negative plays such as sacks, incompletions, and interceptions. Allen was nestled between Kyler Murray and Marcus Mariota , so despite the improvements, it wasn't necessarily a glowing season. That's not enough to push Allen out of consideration in DFS, though, thanks to his rushing abilities. A multi-rushing-touchdown day is within his range of outcomes, and on a slate lacking in surefire stud quarterbacks especially if Fuller can't play , we should seek that out. Both Allen and Watson seem to stand above the other quarterbacks on the Saturday-only slate, and Allen is worthy of exposure on the four-game offering, as well. Technically, this game has the higher total of the two Saturday games, sitting up at It's just hard to figure out how either the Patriots or Tennessee Titans will light up the scoreboard. That may sound like a weird statement given how well the Titans have played under Ryan Tannehill. But Tannehill has very much benefited from a plus schedule. Saturday's game will be the first time since Week 10 that the Titans have faced a team ranked inside the top 10 in schedule-adjusted pass defense and only the second time all year that Tannehill has faced a defense of that caliber. The Patriots -- even including their Week 17 loss to the Miami Dolphins -- rank first in that stat. The schedule forces you to view Tannehill's numbers with a degree of skepticism. That lowers the outlook for the Titans' entire passing offense, including Tannehill himself. You could still consider A. Brown , though, thanks to a meaty target share since his snap rate spiked in Week Brown is destined to see either double coverage or man coverage by Stephon Gilmore , both of which are daunting. When squaring off with Marshon Lattimore two weeks ago, Brown had just two targets. This prevents him from being a core play at wide receiver. You can still filter him at times, though. Smith is the only tight end on the Saturday-only slate with a somewhat dependable role. They're cheaper access to this offense, but again, we should temper expectations on the whole given the difficulty of the matchup. The matchup shouldn't push us off of Derrick Henry. Similar to Singletary, the Titans leaned on Henry in a must-win spot in Week 17 as he handled a season-high With no other stud running backs available on the Saturday-only slate, Henry may be a must-have there even if you expect the Titans to struggle. Getting off him is a bit easier if you play the four-game slate and get Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook in the mix, along with Singletary. The overall vibe around the Titans' offense is wariness given the matchup. The sentiment is similar around the Patriots even though they're paired with a much more lenient secondary. The Titans finished the regular season ranked 13th against the pass, just fifth-best among the eight teams in action this weekend. That would seemingly make the Patriots' offense attractive. But their offensive ineptitude keeps extending, making it hard to buy in. The Patriots have struggled all year long. The downturn, though, seemed to happen back in Week 12 when Tom Brady popped up on the injury report with an elbow injury. His play has taken a sharp downturn since then with 'deep rate' referring to the percentage of throws that travel at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Before the injury, Brady's efficiency was slightly above average, in line with that of Jared Goff. Since, the efficiency has been more akin to Mason Rudolph. It's not as if Brady has faced world-beater opposition, either. He had Whether it's due to injuries to himself or others, Brady has been brutal recently. This seems to have led to a shift in the team's philosophy. The run game hasn't been lighting it up, but it seems to be better than the alternative. Julian Edelman said this week that he's feeling better than he was , which could lead to a rebound for Brady and company in the playoffs. But you're expecting a shift in this offense if you are eager to buy into them, even on a four-game slate. This puts Brady himself beneath both Watson and Allen on the two-game slate, and it means you don't need him in your player pool if you're playing the four-game slate. It also lowers our desire to use anybody else tied to this offense. Edelman's health comments are noteworthy because his role has decreased recently. His snap rate has been down the past three games, and his target share has collapsed with it. For comparison, Edelman had He had just 17 total targets in this three-game stretch. If not, then it's hard to find anything reliable here. N'Keal Harry has gotten deep volume, but he's yet to hit 30 receiving yards in a game this year. Mohamed Sanu hit 35 receiving yards last week, his most since early November. Both are cheap, but it's hard to tell whether either have a ceiling. The more run-heavy nature of the team could funnel you to Sony Michel , and on such a short slate, that's not a terrible idea. He has at least 18 carries and 74 yards in three straight games and would benefit if the Patriots' defense were to shut down Tannehill. We should put him in a similar bucket to Hyde, grading him below Singletary but still using Michel in lineups where we assume the Patriots win. This is why Michel is the preferred option between the two. It's far from a tragedy if he winds up not being in your player pool, but -- similar to Harry and Sanu -- he's on the table. With an offense as blurgh-ish as New England's, our goal should be to pay as little as possible in order to reduce our monetary ties to them. That leads us to considering the value-esque options in Michel, Sanu, and Harry. Overall, this game -- on both sides -- just lacks the juice you see with the others on the slate. The total has risen 2. That's reassuring with two of the better straight-up plays on the slate playing here in Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Starting with Kamara, the appeal in him has become more obvious recently with the touchdowns finally starting to break in his favor, but he has been getting steady work for a while now. After returning from his ankle injury through Week 16, he averaged If you double his target total to account for the fact that targets are worth twice as much as a carry for a running back in a half-PPR scoring setting, you get That's still less than what we should expect out of Cook. Cook has practiced in full this week , meaning his shoulder injury is a thing of the past. Prior to sustaining that injury in Week 13, he was averaging With a game projected to be close, decreasing the risk that Alexander Mattison gobbles up volume in garbage time, Cook's expected workload is voluptuous. You could attempt to poo-poo Cook by pointing to the 7. The concerns around the Vikings' offensive line are legit. But Cook and the Vikings aren't seeing the Saints at full strength. After their barn-burner loss to the San Francisco 49ers , the Saints placed both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on injured reserve. The Saints' defense has taken giant steps back when Rankins has been off the field, as quantified by The Quant Edge. We haven't noticed this recently because two of the three games since Rankins' injury have been against Will Grier and Jacoby Brissett. But the Saints have allowed at least 27 points in each of the other four games that Rankins has missed, so this is an impactful injury. Not only does this amp up the appeal in Cook, but it also makes Kirk Cousins viable for tournaments. With Cook and Adam Thielen both healthy, this will be the first time Cousins has had all of his toys at his disposal since Week 6. As long as you're okay with a vomit-worthy floor, Cousins shapes up as being a pretty tasty option. Speaking of Thielen, we haven't yet seen him fully unleashed since coming back from his injury. He had just seven targets in two games before sitting in a meaningless Week 17 game. There's still enough here for us to be interested. The week of rest helps as it removes Thielen an extra week from his injury. Before his initial injury in Week 7, Thielen was getting big volume. If we assume that Thielen is healthier now than he was earlier, he'd grade out as a glaring value. We don't need to make those assumptions with John Brown and DK Metcalf, so they can still sit above Thielen in this tier, but there's a path to a big game out of Theilen here. He works well with Cousins or if you're looking to bring it back when using Drew Brees. A date with Lattimore is not an indicator that you should avoid Diggs. He's good enough to win any matchup, and his market shares, when Thielen was healthy, were superb. We just might want to rank Thielen a hair higher thanks to his salary savings. How you view Brees and Michael Thomas depends -- in part -- on what you think the Vikings' offense will do. Both are solid regardless. But if you think the Vikings can keep pace and force the Saints to keep throwing deep into the game, then the ceiling on both gets a healthy nudge. As such, in most lineups where you have either Brees or Thomas, you should give strong consideration to including at least one Vikings player, as well. Among the cheaper pieces, it's looking like Tre'Quan Smith is becoming the most desirable option. Ted Ginn Jr. Smith is still superbly risky -- his five targets last week, when some starters were resting in the second half, were his most of the season -- but he's preferable over Ginn. Finally, Jared Cook does work in stacks with Brees, as well. He has just Although he's a full tier below Dallas Goedert for cash games, we can give Cook thought in tournaments, especially when stacking this game. Outside of Fuller, there aren't a ton of injuries impacting the first three games of the weekend. This one is different, and it's a full-on bloodbath. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles are going to be without elite offensive linemen, the Seahawks lacking Duane Brown while the Eagles prepare with Brandon Brooks sidelined. Lane Johnson has gotten in limited practices this week, but the loss of Brooks helps offset that potential gain. The Brown absence is a big one for the Seahawks. The team's passing offense has cratered when he has been off the field, as you can see in these splits via The Quant Edge. The split without Brown does include games against the 49ers and Baltimore Ravens , both of which are tough assignments, but it also includes the team's massive flop at home against the Arizona Cardinals. We have to downgrade Russell Wilson and the entire offense with Brown out. In addition to not having Brooks, the Eagles might also be without Zach Ertz , who is dealing with a lacerated kidney. He has practiced in a limited fashion this week, but Ertz is yet to be cleared for contact. The most likely scenario seems to be that Ertz sits again, which does open up volume for some of the other pieces in the offense but also severely limits the appeal in Carson Wentz. Wentz has played well of late, and he's a big part of the reason the team is in the playoffs. But his past five games have come against the teams ranked 32nd, 28th, 27th, 18th, and 28th against the pass, per numberFire's metrics Seattle is 16th. When you take away at least Brooks and potentially Johnson and Ertz, that's enough to make Wentz a tough sell, even on a short slate. We can still consider the pieces tied to him, though, given the volume available for the taking. With Ertz out last week, Goedert predictably was a focal point of the offense. If Ertz sits, Goedert is unquestionably the top tight end on the slate, and he's very much in play if Ertz is able to suit up, as well. The potential for the offense to struggle prevents Goedert from being a must-play, but you'll have a hard time replicating his floor anywhere else. Greg Ward is an option almost entirely because his salary. He doesn't get downfield looks only two during his entire tenure with the Eagles , but he can still pay off without massive yardage if he gets in the end zone. He's just not someone who's likely to burn you if you don't use him. With Ertz sidelined, Joshua Perkins played The three deep targets indicate he at least has a bit of yardage juice, as well. The other thing that should stand out from the table above is how much volume the running backs got with Boston Scott and Miles Sanders combining for 11 targets. That's even with Sanders being held to just Sanders is yet to practice this week but plans to play on Saturday. That makes this backfield complicated. If Sanders goes, they'll have him, Scott, and Jordan Howard all available with Howard now holding an additional week to get back into game shape following his long absence. That's a lotta cooks in the kitchen, and it shoves everybody out of core consideration. It would still be hard to cross Sanders off entirely, though. He averaged Even when Scott excelled in Week 14 while Sanders dealt with cramps, Sanders came back the next week to his biggest game of the season. If Sanders is able to go, we can certainly rotate him in our tournament player pool. If Sanders is sidelined, things get a bit easier. It's possible that Howard's role would increase, but Scott would likely maintain his role in the passing game, which is his main source of appeal. He has at least six targets in four straight games and carried the ball 19 times with Sanders out last week. The running backs are complicated on the other side of the ball, too, though for different reasons. He played In a matchup with a team that is much better against the rush than the pass, you would think things would skew toward more Homer usage. But we also have to keep in mind that Lynch was serving tequila shots in a parking lot just two weeks earlier, so it's possible his role wasn't fully expanded just yet. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer told the media that Lynch will have more of the playbook open to him , according to Brady Henderson of ESPN, but he also noted that they were pleased with Homer's performance. This doesn't answer our question, but it should help us feel better about Homer. Again, this is a defense that encourages you to pass against it, and Homer seems more equipped for that role than Lynch. Homer racked up 92 yards from scrimmage last week, so Schottenheimer likely wasn't blowing sunshine up Homer's rear in complimenting him. It seems pretty legit. We shouldn't rank Homer as high as we do Singletary, and we should prioritize getting up to Cook and Kamara whenever we can. There's value elsewhere in this Seattle offense, too, even with Brown out. That's because their pass-catchers are super cheap. We've got three games now since Schottenheimer said that Tyler Lockett was finally healthy after hurting his leg back in November. In those three games, the high-leverage volume has gone almost exclusively to Lockett and Metcalf. The concentration on those looks means we're not playing a guessing game when trying to figure out who's going to blow up on this offense. It's going to be one of those two guys, and that's reassuring when trying to dabble here. The Vikings have the advantage of playing indoors while the Seahawks could be dealing with some wind , but the Seahawks have the preferred matchup. All four receivers need to be in our player pool with your process determining which set of teammates you prefer. If you side with the Vikings but still want some exposure to the Seahawks, then you can easily just plug in Jacob Hollister. His upside isn't nearly as high as that of Lockett and Metcalf, but Hollister fills tight end for a bargain salary. You can either use him as a standalone play or happily roll him out in the same lineup as Lockett or Metcalf if you expect the Seahawks to light it up through the air. Wilson's in a scoring rut but hasn't logged a rushing touchdown since Week 6. Getting one or two of those is always in play for Wilson, meaning we should target him at times even if we don't expect the offense to hang a big number. Log in to numberFire To get the full benefits of numberFire, please log in. You'll get the best projections in the business! Click here to sign up! Already have an account? Click here to log in! What is Premium? Weather info Powered by Dark Sky All rights reserved. Share: Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. Top Stories. An Introduction to FanDuel Research. Jim Sannes —. Brandon Gdula —. Kenyatta Storin —. Recent Stories. Austin Swaim —. Thomas Vecchio —. Jim Sannes — JimSannes Jan 3rd, Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. Bills at Texans This game has a blend of the two things discussed in the open: Will Fuller 's injury will play a key role in determining how we view the slate, and Devin Singletary 's usage in a must-win game makes him one of the better values on the board. Titans at Patriots Technically, this game has the higher total of the two Saturday games, sitting up at Brown Seahawks at Eagles Outside of Fuller, there aren't a ton of injuries impacting the first three games of the weekend. Related News. JJ Zachariason —.

Daily Fantasy Football: Sannes' Situations to Monitor for Wild Card Weekend

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Week 14 is a buffet where you've crafted every meal on the menu. We've got juicy burgers, the cheesiest pizza, and -- the belle of the ball -- boneless wings waiting to descend down your gullet. Not only do we get a healthy serving of stud running backs, but teams like the Kansas City Chiefs -- often omitted from the main slate -- are finally at our disposal once again. That's what happens when you've got 13 games. It gives you lots of fun options, but you can't use all of them. As a result, Week 14 is one where prioritization reigns. You've got to go through the top studs and the best games to stack, figure out who will sit atop your list, and then see which of these tempting options ultimately gets the squeeze. Making those choices will force us to dig into the most relevant data on each option and see which one grades out the best with all things considered. That's what we'll try to do today, sorting through all the context around the slate and deciding how we should rank these options for NFL DFS. We'll start with the stud running backs, outline some value options who could make the salaries of the studs easier to afford, and then discuss other situations dictating how we should play things on Sunday. Not having Christian McCaffrey here is a major bummer. But even after you take out McCaffrey, we still have the massive workloads of Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry , and Aaron Jones gets a rematch against a team he torched for yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 2. So, how do we rank 'em? The data to consider most here will be each player's volume and their game environment. The volume analysis will center around their 'adjusted opportunities,' which is carries plus two-times their target total as targets are worth twice as much as a carry for a running back on FanDuel. The ideal game environment for a running back is a high-scoring tight game as it allows them to get targets all four quarters, pumping up their ceiling. The table below lays out the key points for each player, sorted by their FanDuel salary. This is for each player's most relevant sample. The 'RZ share' column shows the percentage of their team's carries or targets they've gotten inside the red zone. As you can see, each player has their advantages. Cook has the best workload, but both Henry and Jones are on teams that are projected to light up the scoreboard. So, once we blend that all together, how do we rank these guys? Because workload is such an important part of the equation, it's likely best to shove Jones to the bottom of the list. He ranks last in all three volume-based metrics, and we can get a similarly spicy offensive environment from Henry. This doesn't mean that Jones doesn't have upside; he showed that the first time the Green Bay Packers faced the Detroit Lions. It's just hard to compare to those other two. From a workload perspective, Cook has a leg up on Henry. We saw the downsides of Henry's workload last week as he was riding the bench in a negative script and failed to hit six FanDuel points. It's a serious concern when we have these alternatives. However, it's abundantly obvious that Henry has the preferred matchup. Meanwhile, Cook will face the top-ranked Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The path of least resistance goes through Henry. The question is whether the discrepancy in the matchups can help erase the volume gap between Henry and Cook. It's very possible it can. Across the full season, the average adjusted opportunity against the Jaguars has been worth 0. That's a good chunk higher than the 0. If those numbers were to hold far from a lock due to touchdown variance , Henry would need to be within roughly five adjusted opportunities of Cook to outscore him. That seems very doable. Henry's most relevant workload is just 3. He's already in striking distance here. His team also has a higher implied total, and the spreads of the games are relatively similar. That's likely enough to give Henry the slightest of edges over Cook. So, once we consider all the factors here, it does seem as though Henry deserves to sit atop our lists. This is a bit scary given that he just burned us last week, but his ceiling is likely the best on the slate once you account for the team he's facing. Even with a tough matchup, we can feel good putting Cook second. McCaffrey put up Alvin Kamara also topped 20 FanDuel points, and his workload isn't quite as good as Cook's. As long as you expect the Vikings to keep this game close more on that in a bit , Cook's a solid number two choice here. Truthfully, though, all three of these guys are great options. Even though Jones is third, he has the ability to blow the lid off the slate. As such, they're all worth rostering if you're multi-entering. But if you want to jam multiple studs into a single lineup -- or one of them with some Chiefs players -- you'll need to save salary somewhere. Thankfully, you do have some value options at running back who can help move the needle. All of them are viable options and Ekeler is among the best plays on the slate , so we'll talk about them in later sections. But we need salary-savers, and this section will focus on the players who can help get us there. I made the cutoff there so as to include David Montgomery , one of the more appealing options in the group. But he's not the only one who could lend us a hand. Here's the same table as above except with the value plays in their most relevant samples. Obviously the workloads aren't as good as with the studs, but there are still some positives here. The two standouts here are Montgomery and Myles Gaskin. Both grade out as ideal options when trying to save salary. Those two rank in the top two among value plays in adjusted opportunities, yards per game, and red-zone share. Montgomery's actually second on the entire slate in red-zone share in each back's most relevant sample. You also get that in a close game against a bad defense, so Montgomery checks each box. Gaskin's situation is a bit more daunting. The Miami Dolphins are 7. But there's still plenty of reason to like Gaskin. The two big things in Gaskin's favor are the Chiefs' rush defense and his role in the passing game. The Chiefs rank 23rd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs. They care much more about stopping the pass, which is a smart way to play things. But as long as the Dolphins remain close enough to run the ball, they should be able to run it effectively. Gaskin had just two targets in his return to the lineup last week, but his role there was bigger earlier in the year. He averaged 5. It's possible he was just being eased back into action off his injury. Even if the Dolphins do fall behind, it's unlikely to zap Gaskin of playing time. Finally, Gaskin's just on a good team. That matters as we enter the stretch run. The Dolphins need wins, and they're likely to lean on their best players to get them. They've told us throughout the season they think Gaskin is that guy, and their actions should increase our confidence in putting him in our lineups. Those things may not be quite enough to put Gaskin ahead of Montgomery. Montgomery does have the slight edge in workload, matchup, and game environment. But it is enough to make Gaskin more of a 1B option to Montgomery's 1A rather than being a full tier below. It's also worth mentioning that it's fully defensible to use Gaskin and Montgomery in the same lineup. That's often risky with value plays because they often lack the requisite upside. But here, both guys get work in the passing game and at the goal line, so that's not as much of a concern. If you're trying to jam in a Chiefs stack or just have extra flexibility at wide receiver, you can absolutely use both. The other options down here all have their drawbacks. The one who may stand out most is Kenyan Drake. It's a decently tough matchup -- the New York Giants are ninth in Success Rate allowed to opposing backs -- but Drake has a whopping That has allowed him to still come through even while the offense has taken a step back. He's a clear two tiers below both Montgomery and Gaskin, but he is a viable differentiation piece if you're looking to change things up. It's also worth noting that Drake was limited in practice on Thursday, which could potentially indicate a mid-week injury. In the game Drake missed, Chase Edmonds had 25 carries and 3 targets while playing If Drake has to sit, Edmonds leapfrogs both Montgomery and Gaskin as the top value on the slate. Otherwise, if Drake is full on Friday, we can assume he keeps that aforementioned role. Moore this week. It's a tough spot for the Panthers. But with a depleted Denver Broncos defense on the other side, we've still got to have some interest in the offense. Starting with the receivers, both Samuel and Robby Anderson would get a bump up in this situation. They were already getting steady volume even with Moore in the mix. Here's their target distribution since Samuel returned from injury in Week 7. Anderson would have been in play even if Moore were healthy. Samuel gets the bigger bump because he has more upward mobility in his usage. But the red-zone role is even better than it looks. In addition to having That role is likely to stick with McCaffrey out. He is going to get the kinds of high-leverage touches we need, putting him on par with Anderson as a semi-value at receiver. The appeal in the receivers seems higher than the appeal in Mike Davis. Davis had a great role when McCaffrey initially got hurt. But that role eroded over time, and his You can certainly talk yourself into Davis, but with Gaskin and Montgomery standing out so much more -- and guys like Taylor and Swift in a similar range as pivots -- Davis isn't someone you need in your player pool. This one's all about the pass-catchers. Given the 13 games on the slate, this is once again a week where we need upside out of our quarterbacks. If they can't get toe 30 FanDuel points, it's hard to justify putting them in a lineup. With Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers , we know that upside exists. We just have to decide which offense we prefer. From a matchup perspective, the clear advantage belongs to the Packers. They're facing the Lions, who are the worst defense in football, based on numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. The Miami Dolphins are seventh. If you play things based on matchups, Rodgers is your guy. But clearly, matchups aren't everything. We always want exposure to high-scoring, tight games. So a big part of our process for these two teams revolves around deciding whether we expect the Lions or Dolphins to keep these games close. The case in favor of the Lions revolves around Week In their first game without Matt Patricia, Matthew Stafford threw for yards and 3 touchdowns. He threw deep -- at least 16 yards downfield -- a season-high 12 times. That's in addition to playing at a faster pace after interim head coach Darrell Bevell said they'd do exactly that. Interestingly enough, though, Tua Tagovailoa is actually almost even with Stafford in terms of efficiency for the season. Tagovailoa is at 0. NEP is numberFire's expected-points model, and Passing NEP includes deductions for expected points lost on sacks, incompletions, and interceptions. The league-average mark is 0. There have been some ugly throws in there, but the overall body of work for Tagovailoa isn't that bad. Weirdly, the Dolphins' defense may work to Mahomes' advantage, as well. Because they're good, it may actually keep the Chiefs' passing game engaged longer. Two of Mahomes' biggest FanDuel-point totals this year -- a 40 burger against the Baltimore Ravens and Matchups may not matter for this offense. If you're looking at 50th- or 75th-percentile outcomes, the advantage likely lies with the Packers. They're playing indoors against a bad defense. That's hard to pass up. But if one of these games is going to completely blow up, it does seem as if the odds are higher that it's the Chiefs-Dolphins game. That may make the 90th-percentile outcomes here just a smidge more attractive. This one boils down to how you want to play things in DFS. If you want the cake matchup, take Rodgers and stack him with Davante Adams. But if you -- like me -- sell out to stack shootouts, then there's plenty of reason to drool over the Chiefs. The same line of thinking should be applied to Adams and Tyreek Hill. You should prioritize the guy you think will be in the tighter game. Straight up, though, it does seem like Adams holds the slight edge. The table below compares each guy's workload in their most relevant sample. For Adams, that's his four full games alongside Allen Lazard. For Hill, it's his games with Sammy Watkins. Here, we'll go with raw targets as opposed to shares because the Chiefs' absurd pass-to-run ratios make a difference. Hill is at If you can pick just one, Adams has the slight edge. Clearly, Hill's volume has gone up of late, though, as he has double-digit targets in four straight games and five of the past six. He has gotten there in both games since Watkins returned, as well, showing that his role now is better than it was earlier in the season. His true ceiling is higher than Adams', and that does matter. That's why we should allow the preferred game environment to decide for us rather than just picking one in a vacuum. The good thing is that we can get exposure to these offenses even if we can't quite get to Adams or Hill. On the Chiefs, that guy is clearly Travis Kelce. Kelce also has double-digit targets in four of the past five games. Kelce's four point FanDuel games in his past five are more than any other tight end has for the entire season two. The positional edge you get via Kelce can't be overstated. Neither has had a huge role since Lazard returned, but each target in this offense has a lot of juice with Rodgers at quarterback. Because Tonyan fills tight end, he seems like the preferred route, but both are in play. In both situations, if you decide to use the studs, it's wise to bring it back with a player on the opposing team. We have pretty logical selections there, too. His low salary helps offset some of the cost tied to Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. We're up to three starts for Tagovailoa now with Preston Williams out, and both Parker and Gesicki have had good roles in that time. The Chiefs have done a really nice job limiting wide-receiver production this year, so we should rank Gesicki second behind Gaskin. As for the Lions, it seems like the bring-back candidates here are Marvin Jones , T. Hockenson , and Swift with Kenny Golladay trending toward another absence. Jones has a tough matchup, but he's getting high-leverage targets, and Hockenson brings some yardage juice to a tough position. Both of those work even if it's not a perfect spot. Swift's outlook depends on Friday's practice session. He has been limited the first two days this week. However, Bevell said Swift had a good day of practice Wednesday , and he's an additional week removed from his concussion. This is more optimistic than the reporting around Swift has been since he first entered concussion protocol. If Swift gets in a full practice Friday and is removed from the injury report, he's someone we'll want to use in tournaments. He played The Packers -- like the Chiefs -- want you to run the ball on them, so if we get Swift off the injury report, he's worthy of some tourney exposure. With so many high-powered options on the slate, it's possible the Bucs' game with the Vikings goes overlooked. It shouldn't, though. The Vikings' offense is the reason we should feel inclined to go here. They're up to eighth in schedule-adjusted passing offense, one spot ahead of the Bucs. Pitting two efficient passing offenses against each other is a good recipe for a bunch of points, and we generally know where the ball is going here. We already talked through Cook and why he's viable despite a tough matchup. The matchup is less tough for Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson , so they could be an easier route for access to this game. The plus of them is that when they're both healthy, they monopolize all the targets. Here's the target distribution from Week 3 on, excluding Week 12 when Thielen was out. The yardage favors Jefferson; the touchdowns favor Thielen. Thielen has multiple routes to upside, so he should likely hold a slight edge over Jefferson. But with the number of pass attempts likely increasing here, both these guys have even more upside than usual. The Tampa side of things is a bit more muddled. Just when we were starting to get used to their volume with Antonio Brown , Mike Evans popped up with another injury. Evans finally was looking healthy after his injuries earlier in the year. So, this sucks. It would open up good volume for Brown and Chris Godwin , though. Even with Evans healthy, those two were getting enough targets to be in play, as was Rob Gronkowski. Those shares would inherently go up if Evans were to sit, which is good for them. Normally, when a high-quality player is out, we want to downgrade the entire offense. That's how things should work most often. But that might not be the case here. We've already seen Tom Brady dealing with injuries this year. He had just Evans in Week 4, and even with that, he hung He now has both Godwin and Brown, and Gronkowski has been a legit weapon. We should downgrade Brady a tiny bit if Evans sits, but he'd still be in play, and we'd feel good enough about the offense to justify gushing over the others. It seems as though Godwin should hold a slight edge over Brown. He has more time in this offense to develop a chemistry with Brady, and that matters. They're similar to Thielen and Jefferson where both are high-quality plays, and their value does go up if Evans sits. It's hard to get jazzed about him with Kelce also on the slate and some viable value options, but Gronkowski would objectively be a good play in this spot. He's worth including in game stacks, and there's standalone value here, too, given the kinds of targets he gets. If we're searching for shootouts, the Jaguars may not be the most obvious place to look. They've got one win this year, and that ain't great. But Mike Glennon is letting that sucker rip, and it should boost our thoughts on this game as a whole. Glennon has made two starts in place of Gardner Minshew and Jake Luton. His 9. If you want a shootout, that's a good recipe for getting one. Of course, a date with the Tennessee Titans ' defense doesn't hurt things, either. After the Cleveland Browns ' performance last week, the Titans are now 28th in schedule-adjusted defense for the season. It's pretty reasonable to expect the Jags to score points here. That's great for Henry, and it can allow us to go right back to the Titans' passing offense, as well. Even in a rush-heavy offense, Ryan Tannehill still has the upside necessary to be in play on a full slate. He has at least 28 FanDuel points in three games and topped 26 in another. You can pair him with Henry, too, and get access to almost every yard and likely every point the offense scores. If you don't go Henry, the other stacking partners with Tannehill are also obvious. Corey Davis blew up last week, but that performance didn't come out of nowhere. He has had respectable volume the whole year, even when we look at just the games he has played with A. That's not to say that Brown is out of play; the dude is crazy talented and can generate upside even without downfield looks. Davis doesn't need a bump up to be a boss. To make this game even more alluring, we know the bring-back options: James Robinson and D. Robinson is at Jones, though, gets slightly more red-zone work, and his team is going to generate more red-zone opportunities. Chark is one of the better value options at wide receiver. He didn't do much in his one game with Glennon, but he led the team with seven targets, and five of those were deep. With his upside, that's enough to make him a priority whether you're stacking the game or not. If you've read this far, you're in the trust tree. I said to bet the over on the Los Angeles Chargers ' team total at 24 points last week. I'm an idiot. So, the scars of last week are still white hot. But with the Atlanta Falcons next on the docket, we have no choice but to talk about the Chargers yet again. Those issues aren't isolated to one game, either. Over the past four, Justin Herbert is at A lot of that came from the New England Patriots game, but he was also below average in another and right at the league average in one. He has clearly regressed from the nastiness he was dripping initially. But in the one plus matchup Herbert had in that time, he shredded the Jets for Although the Falcons have played better of late, they're still ranked 26th against the pass. That makes Herbert a viable play, ranked in a third tier with Tannehill behind guys like Mahomes and Rodgers in tier one and Brady by himself in tier two. The matchup bodes well for Austin Ekeler, too. Ekeler flopped last week, and the Falcons are good against the rush, but so much of Ekeler's appeal is via his passing-game work. In four full games with Herbert, Ekeler is averaging It's tough to go back after the down week, but Ekeler is among the top three options at running back once you consider salary. The matchup also bodes well for Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. Even with Ekeler gobbling up a bunch of targets, they've still gotten healthy volume for their position in games with Herbert, Ekeler, and Mike Williams. Williams is tough unless you expect this game to get bonkers. The others clearly work, though. The only problem with Allen is his proximity in salary to Adams and Hill. It's still conceivable for Allen to out-score them, so he's worthy of exposure, but we should rank him behind Adams and Hill even after considering the salary discount. One of the bigger reasons to include Herbert-Allen or Herbert-Ekeler stacks in your player pool is that you know which players to run it back with. That's Calvin Ridley. Julio Jones won't be able to go due to his hamstring injury. That downgrades the entire offense and pushes Matt Ryan out of play. But in the five games with Jones out or limited, Ridley has Ridley has or more yards in two of those games; he just hasn't found the end zone much. Even with the offense taking a hit, this is still a good spot to grab Ridley and exploit what could be a high-scoring game. He had been inactive for chunks of two separate seasons, a signal that they didn't have much faith in him. But Deshaun Watson showed in Week 13 that those reservations were ill-founded. In his first game without Will Fuller , Coutee had nine total targets with four deep and one in the red zone. We should expect Brandin Cooks ' volume to go up as he did miss some time during that game, but there's no denying that Coutee's role is legit. We should likely rank Coutee higher, though, given the quality of his quarterback. Regardless, both are options we can turn to when looking to spend down. There's other value on the other side of this game, too. But Cole Kmet can help save salary if you're not splurging for Kelce. Kmet's role has been on the rise for a while as he has run more routes than Jimmy Graham in three straight. That finally translated to volume in Week 13 as Kmet finished with seven targets, including a touchdown. Kmet doesn't get downfield targets, which caps his upside, but if you're not going Kelce or another high-upside option, you want to save some salary. When we have Kelce and viable punt options at tight end, it's tougher to justify mid-range tight ends. But as mentioned with Gesicki, that's less of a concern when those guys get high-leverage targets. The same line of thinking applies to Evan Engram with Daniel Jones back this week. Early in the year, Engram was being used in the old Jason Witten role. There was a magnet preventing him from running downfield routes, and it killed his DFS appeal. Things have been different recently, though. We've got a five-game sample on this team since Sterling Shepard returned from injury with Jones at quarterback. Engram's usage in that time is really appealing. This is a slate where we need either points or salary-savings out of our tight end. Engram can get points with that usage. It makes Engram one of the top non-Kelce options we've got. Jones' return at least makes Wayne Gallman relevant. In Week 12, Gallman got a season-high five targets, and he went for yards last week with Jones out. The problems with Gallman are twofold. First, the targets haven't been there outside of Week Second, he lost red-zone work to Alfred Morris last week, and Dion Lewis still mixes in for passing situations. So, there's a path to a decent game for Gallman. But with Montgomery and Gaskin and potentially Edmonds at our disposal, it's easy to justify omitting Gallman from your player pool. Getting to see Jalen Hurts this week is exciting. He was electric in college, and he plays a brand of football that is fun to watch. Two things are working against Hurts here. The first is the opponent. The New Orleans Saints are up to fourth in schedule-adjusted passing defense. Importantly, they generate pressure on That's the other thing working against Hurts: his supporting cast ain't great. Yes, Carson Wentz was a big part of the issue with this offense. But even when Hurts entered in Week 13, he took three sacks on 15 drop backs. Hurts' big flaw in college was holding the ball too long and taking sacks; that's not a good blend with this offense in its current state. The Eagles' offense was unappealing under Wentz because they spread out targets and weren't all that efficient. Those two factors are likely to stick under Hurts, at least for this week. Having Hurts and Taysom Hill start saps the DFS appeal out of both sides of this one as the clock should be running pretty consistently. The one thing that could change that is the status of Latavius Murray. Murray popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a knee injury. If he can't go, it'd likely give a large chunk of the team's rush attempts to Alvin Kamara. The New York Jets have had their top three receivers available for four games this year. They've scored at least 27 points in three of them, which is a big boost for their opponents as it keeps games close for longer. The personal matter is the most important thing here, and you have to hope all is well with Denzel Mims and his family. His absence will have a negative impact on this entire game. For the season, Sam Darnold has played six games with either one or two of the big three at receiver. In those games, Darnold has averaged It's a truly hideous number. So while we should expect target bumps for Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder in a good matchup, it's hard to see this offense showing life. That puts a lid on everyone's upside. If the Jets can't score on offense, it allows the Seattle Seahawks to float on cruise control if they so choose. They're This is just compounded by what the Seahawks have been doing recently on offense. Their early-down first-half pass rate the past four games is And with Chris Carson still not boasting a great workload, it's hard to get jazzed about him, too. The odds that Russell Wilson , D. Metcalf , and Carson hit value are pretty high. The Jets are terrible, making this a good rebound spot. As such, you can justify using any and all of them. But we want to target players in games that will feature points on both sides, keeping things popping for all four quarters. We're unlikely to get that here, and it does lower the incentive to target the Seahawks ahead of teams like the Packers, Chiefs, Titans, and Bucs. Sunday's duel between the Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders features a high total and a tight spread. That's exactly what we want for DFS. But with the Colts' defense still being solid and the Colts' offense spreading out the volume, it's still a tough shootout to love. There are a couple of options capable of coming through here, though. You can certainly consider T. Hilton or Michael Pittman Jr. He has at least yards from scrimmage in two straight games. How you handle Taylor depends on how you view that workload. If you expect it to stick, he's averaging That's an acceptable number comparable to Gaskin and Montgomery. That's enough where we should shoehorn some Taylor into our tournament lineups. The reason we can't go much harder than that is A we don't know if that role will stick, and B he has still lost red-zone work to Nyheim Hines in that time. Taylor has just 3 of 21 red-zone opportunities in those games compared to 6 opportunities for Hines. So, Taylor's still flawed. He has a path to a good game, which is why we should get some exposure. But we'd need to make sure we get to him after we already have a healthy helping of Gaskin and Montgomery as those two have much steadier roles than Taylor. The other side includes Darren Waller off last week's monster game. He could blow up again with the style of defense the Colts play. But the bigger piece here may be Nelson Agholor. And with that salary comes heavy usage. Importantly, a lot of that usage since Henry Ruggs ' return has been high-leverage. Last week, specifically, Agholor was threatening an eruption with 11 total targets, 6 of which were at least 16 yards downfield. He just didn't convert on that volume. We've seen him do that plenty of times this year, though, meaning we can buy into the usage and roll out Agholor once again. Jim Sannes Dec 11th, But you have to go through that line of temptation with only one plate to fill. Good luck. Running Back Adj. Total Dalvin Cook Total David Montgomery

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