Review potential fix game FSV Frankfurt - SV Steinbach
IaroslavSeveral subscribes from Germany wrote about the suspicious (fix) game, some themselves placed bets on it, through bot signals, this game was written about in the press and discussed on Reddit. Now, I want to make my review of this game.
https://www.kicker.de/details-zum-manipulationsverdacht-32-080-euro-bis-minute-15-974721/artikel
https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/17ck7bt/match_fixing_in_german_4th_league_game_between/
I am quite competent in this matter and have more than 4 years of experience in searching for such games and my own software and projects for finding potentially fix games, so I want to make my review of this game.
For users without registration and appropriate settings, you will not see the highlighting, but you can still visually notice the bet amounts.
I want to consider 3 points about this game:
- Average bet in this league
2. Bets on this game on other markets
3. Intensity Bets
Average bet amount in this league
I selectively took 5 games of this league in the First Half market.
https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=31654133#tab_content_201960472
https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=31657089#tab_content_202001656
https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=31670709#tab_content_202210120
https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=31689987#tab_content_202519215
https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=31690584#tab_content_202530196
The amount of bets on this market does not exceed 1,000 euros
In the game FSV Frankfurt - SV Steinbach the amount was 35,000 euros. About 35 times overestimated.
Amount of bets on this game on other markets
Let's look at the moment when this game will truly be special. For example, some important meeting, or some popular source announced this game, and it attracted the attention of bettors. This is also possible.
Then, in many markets there will be large bet amounts on this game. For example, for win FT, Total goals in the game.
It only 3,000 euros to win the game when it bet 30,000 euros to win the half.
Also:
In the markets, the total 2.5 (over/under) cost approximately 1000 euros.
Average bets in other markets were around 2,000 euros.
The betting budget for winning the half was overestimated by 15 times.
It is worth noting that in regular games, it is usually 2-5 times less, as they bet more on a game than on a half.
Intensity bets
In just about 12 minutes, €30,000 worth of bets were placed.
This amount is approximately greater than the amount of bets on all games of this round, moreover, made in 12 minutes of play, on a specific market (first half, not a game).
Results
The bets is overestimated by 35 times
The bets on a specific market is overestimated by 15 times (should be less than 2 times)
Bets intensity is too high
Also, it is worth noting one nuance - that the bets were not proportional. That 90% of all the money in this market was on the away team. With an start odds of 2.7, there should be no more than 30-40%.
More information
https://telegra.ph/Sovety-i-rekomendacii-excappercom-02-27-3
Future ideas
In new versions of the project, I will make average bets by market/game/league.