Report for July 19

Sergei Shoigu inspected the command and control post of the Group of Troops “West”. It has become known that the group’s commander is the Western Military District commander Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoy. In the same way, Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin is both the Central Military District Commander and the commander of the Group of Troops “Center”. Based on that, it is possible to assume that Army General Surovikin, who was named as commander of the Group of Troops “South”, is at the same time the Southern Military District commander, having replaced General Dvornikov in that post, but we have no confirmation of this. Similarly, we have come to understand that Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov is commanding the Group of Troops “East”, and apparently the Eastern Military District, having replaced General Chaiko in that post.

The number of casualties of the rocket attack on Vinnytsia has increased to 25. Last night neurologist Natalya Falshtynska passed away in hospital. At the moment the rocket struck she was at her workplace in the “Neyromed” clinic.

Active actions in the Kherson axis:

• A Russian Su-35 was reportedly shot down (we have not seen any photos or video of the wreckage so far), the pilot is alive. Pro-Russian Telegram channels suggest it was friendly fire again. The Ukrainian side attributes the downing to its own air defense;
• A Redut-2US communications complex was destroyed in Nova Kakhovka;
• A Podlet-K1 radar station was destroyed in Lazurne;
• Oleksiy Arestovych claims that a Russian air defense position was destroyed near the Antonovsky Bridge.

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Volodymyr Gavrilov says that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will strike at the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the positions of Russian forces in Crimea as soon as they are ready for this technically.

A video was published reportedly showing the first use of an M270 system at the front. Since we do not see the system in action, but only traces from missiles (at least 9), we cannot confirm that M270 is indeed at the front - these also may be two simultaneous HIMARS salvos. However, the claim may well be true.

The operational pause may be ending at Siversk and Bakhmut axes. This looks like a gradual transition from operational pause with sporadic shelling to a new offensive:

●     according to LiveUAMap, Bilohorivka and an area west of it are already controlled by Russia;

●     Russian forces are slowly surrounding Hryhorivka, Donetsk region;

●     Ukrainian General Staff reports that the Russians are advancing towards Pokrovske on the Bakhmut axis and entrenching at the outskirts of the village. 

Dachne, Odesa region was hit with missiles (allegedly 7 Kalibr missiles launched from the Black Sea). Six people, including a child, are reported injured. Two houses were completely destroyed and two more caught fire. 

Russian multi-launching rocket systems shelled Nikopol and Krivy Rih districts in Dnipropetrovsk region. 

A strike on the Kramatorsk town center, supposedly with air-launched missiles, hit a residential building; at least one person was killed. 

Oleksiy Danylov, head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, says that Europe has nearly run out of 122mm and 152mm shells for Soviet-era guns. Thus, even without joining NATO, Ukraine is transitioning to NATO standards and calibers. 

Russia is actively using S-300 anti-air missile systems in a ground-to-ground role, as these systems are being gradually phased out for newer S-400. The S-400 missiles are nearing the end of their service term when their fuel would have to be replaced, so they are used to hit ground targets.

A report was published by Russian media on the training of reservists in newly-created volunteer battalions. The instructor's shoulder pad indicates that he is a cadet. This confirms our assessment that Russia is short on officers and scaling up from "shadow" to general mobilization is impossible. 

Convicts in a Russian penal colony filmed a video that allegedly shows a helicopter with Wagner PMC recruiters leaving the area. 

Olga Romanova, human rights defender and co-founder of "Russia Behind Bars" («Русь Сидящая») foundation, says that according to their sources, around 150 people from Leningrad region have already arrived to a penal colony in Rostov region for a monthly training program. The law has a loophole that "allows to release a person on parole in due term by offering him a job". Wagner PMC would be that job. However, it is impossible that 150 convicts in one or two colonies would have their parole period come up at the same time; apparently, courts aren't rubber stamping parole decisions en masse; there also was no amnesty and it can't be applied retroactively. Thus, while some of the convicts may have been released on parole, the terms for others are currently unknown. 

NATO Patriot missiles have arrived to Slovakia to make up for the S-300 that Slovakia transferred to Ukraine. 

The Bayraktar TB 2 crowdfunding flash mob is now joined by Canadians (after Norwegians, Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians). 

A pro-Russian military Telegram Channel "Military Observer" complains that aircraft and personnel are being sent from the Black Sea fleet to a parade in St Petersburg in the middle of a war. 

Our readers sent us a news segment by a foreign TV channel from the Chechen war, which, sadly, strongly reminds of the current situation in Ukraine. 

Adding to yesterday's information on Italian FH70 howitzers transferred to Ukraine: in 2013 Russia's top propagandist Vladimir Solovyev released a documentary on Benito Mussolini where he said that "fascism can't be equated to nazism", and Mussolini was a "brave, courageous, noble and merciful person".