Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the back wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps which might be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. For the reason that most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that most bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For example, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using Learn more here as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you over time. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.