Presidential Election 2024 FAQ

This is an FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions list) for the 2012 United States Presidential Election. I need to disclose up front that I support President Obama. However, with the exception of the very last question, this FAQ is designed as a collection of factual information (such as the latest poll results) and of analysis that is as objective as possible. Why did I do this? To educate interested readers. Can Romney win? How? How accurate are polls? Where do I vote? What about voter fraud? What do the candidates say? What about the Economy? What about State vs. Who endorses each candidate? Are the candidates always honest? How honest or dishonest are they? What happens in case of an electoral vote tie? Who else is running? Is it rational to vote? Who do you think will win? Why do you support Obama? Why the garish color? FF00FF. It is garish, but that’s what you get when you combine two extremes.
Check the following sites for up-to-the-day aggregation of polls. We list their predictions for the probability of Obama winning (in percent) for those sites that give a probability, and for electoral votes (EV) for each candidate (as of Nov. 27719170 Pollster (Mark Blumenthal) ? Different analysts combine these polls in different ways, and end up with different predictions. For Romney to win, we would need a swing of about 3% of voters in his direction. This has happened before, so it is possible, but time is running out for Romney. Alternately, the polls would have to be consistently wrong by 3%, which is very unlikely. Romney’s best hope is that the polls underestimate his support by about 2% (the largest amount that is remotely likely) and that there is some event in the last week that causes another 1% to change their mind towards him. Interestingly, these poll aggregators are all «hobbyist/academic» statisticians, not big news organizations (although 538 and Pollster have acquired sponsors since the last election).
To track who is winning in real time on election day, watch first for the betting markets (such as Intrade, and later in the day look for election result news. No votes will be counted until Nov. 6, but millions of votes have been cast. Some states release the party affiliation of early voters, which does not necessarily indicate who the votes were cast for, but it is a hint. Here are some early voting registration totals as of Nov. A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Oct. 14 of early voters in all states had Obama ahead by 59% to 31%, and a Reuters poll on Oct. 27 had Obama ahead 54% to 39%, but a Gallup poll Oct. 22-28 had Romney ahead by 52% to 46%. If you want to dig into the complete stats, the George Mason University elections project has comprehensive early voting statistics. Recently there has been much interest in prediction markets. The idea is that if people bet real money on an outcome (such as the presidential race), they may have more honest and more considered opinions than typical poll results.
There are several markets covering the election; here are the current numbers from the Democratic Party point of view, expressed as a probability of winning: — 79% Democrat on Iowa Markets (up from 77% on Oct. 27) — 70% Obama on Intrade (up from 64% on Oct. 27) — 78% Obama on Betfair (up from 67% on Oct. For interesting commentary on political futures markets, see Worlds of Spike. Justin Wolfers has a WSJ article that covers the «favorite-longshot bias» — the idea that people bet too much on longshots. You can see this at horse races, and it is clear why it happens: if a horse is a 20-1 longshot, bettors say to themselves «if this one pays off, I’ll be rich!,» potentially changing their lifestyle, whereas if they go with the favorite, their payoff will be much more modest. Can Romney win? How? Yes. Although the odds are against him.
This chart from Nate Silver summarizes it best. These are the 20 most competitive states, with their number of electoral votes, the current forecast based on polls, and the odds of the leader holding on to win. Here’s how: to get to a Romney victory, start at the bottom and move up. You see the cumulative electoral votes for Romney in the «R» column. If Romney holds all the states he currently leads in, he would have 235 electoral votes (that’s the «R» column in the «VA» row — this indicates that Romney has won all the states below VA, but not VA itself). So Romney needs 34 more electoral votes (we’ll assume that Romney wins in case of a tie). Of the 5 next states, Obama leads in all 5, and even if Romney took 4 of the 5 without Ohio, that would only give him 32. So this suggests that either Romney needs Ohio, or he needs a major upset in a state where Obama currently has an 85% or greater chance of winning.
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