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The Black Sea region may be experiencing a resurgence in the trafficking of Afghan heroin. At the end of November , the Azeri customs authority made its largest-ever seizure of Afghan-sourced heroin. At kilograms, it was also the largest single seizure of heroin to be made in the Black Sea region, excluding Turkey. The shipment, which had crossed the border from Iran, was destined for Western Europe via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine. Iranian and Azeri organized-crime networks were involved, and very possibly Turkish groups too, who dominate the Balkans route for Afghan opiates. Such an unusually large individual seizure could well suggest that the Caucasus and the wider Black Sea region are playing a growing role as a route for heroin originating from Afghanistan. Despite Western European law-enforcement claims to the contrary, it seems that the Black Sea route is re-emerging as a prominent corridor for processing heroin and shipping it to Western Europe and Russia. In June and July , Ukrainian customs made two of their largest seizures of Afghan-sourced heroin — kilograms and kilograms, respectively. These shipments were destined for Western Europe and Russia. Moreover, there has been an indication that heroin production labs have been established in Georgia in the last few years. Nor is this regional flow limited to just the westward trafficking of Afghan opiates; eastbound shipments of acetic anhydride AA , a precursor used in the production of heroin, have also been noted. However, Western European law-enforcement agencies have noticed increasing levels of AA being shipped again from Europe to Afghanistan and Iran. In , Georgian customs seized AA shipments of 10 tonnes and 4. In the same year, Romanian customs made a 5 tonne seizure of AA, a consignment that was headed via Turkey to labs in Afghanistan. Although the Black Sea Caucasus region has been seeing a considerable uptick in trafficking — and, in the case of Georgia, in heroin processing labs — how to interpret this flurry requires some caution, as the traditional Balkan route trajectories through Turkey have simultaneously seen increased seizures of drugs as well. For example, in January , the Turkish Jandarma, a military law-enforcement unit, made their single largest seizure of Afghan heroin — a haul of more than 1. And in the first nine months of , Turkey seized 13 tonnes of heroin in total. Several high-level Turkish traffickers have been arrested and provided information on the importance of the traditional Balkan route for flows of Afghan opiates. Romanian and Bulgarian law enforcement maintain that the primary focus for Afghan heroin is the border crossing point between Bulgaria and Turkey at Kapitan Andreevo and Kapikule. Hence, it would seem that the traditional Balkan route through Turkey is still the main concern for regional law enforcement. Due to overproduction in Afghanistan and the collapse of the rial in Iran, more Afghan heroin is being produced than ever before. In , although the estimated area under cultivation of opium poppy declined slightly, it was still the second highest recorded level of production since analyses began in the early s. Such overproduction may see more heroin being produced and shipped, although the value upstream, in transit countries and destination markets could be lower, as the market for Afghan opiates in Western Europe is stable or in a slight decline. Competition will be intense to produce either cheaper heroin or product at higher purity and at the same price. Traffickers will have to warehouse more, find new markets or alter their business models. Although it is clear the region is impacted by a variety of illicit commodity flows e. Seizures in the region, and in Azerbaijan in particular, have been few and far between. Cooperation between law-enforcement agencies in the region and with international partners is limited and faces considerable challenges both in terms of capacity and political priorities. What could complicate the matter further for the Black Sea region is the recent military withdrawal agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban. With the impending withdrawal of NATO forces from the region and the Taliban already exerting extensive control over Afghanistan, even more Afghan heroin could begin flooding the Black Sea region. Only time will tell if the region will experience a resurgence in illicit drug economies and transnational organized-crime groups. The virus is changing the market supply-chain dynamics, from the source markets down to the street-level dealers, and cartels in the region are likely to feel the squeeze — as evidenced elsewhere, such as in Mexico. Further monitoring of the regional flows over time will be needed. Author s Ben Crabtree. Posted on 01 Apr Routes of heroin flows through the Black Sea region. The route via Turkey has dominated this illicit trade. Related analysis. Germany steps up against organized crime.
Global initiative against transnational organized crime
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