Point Spread On College Championship Game

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Opening odds, results for 2021 NCAA men’s championship game between No. 1 Baylor and No. 1 Gonzaga
Here’s the opening odds for the NCAA championship game in Indianapolis before tip on Monday.
By David Fucillo@davidfucillo Updated Apr 5, 2021, 8:35pm PDT
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Update, April 5 11:33 p.m. — Baylor has won the national championship! The Bears beat Gonzaga 86-70, dominating from the start and never feeling this one was in doubt. Baylor covered outright as the underdog and the game came in under the 160 point total.
Update, April 5 8:15 p.m. — At DraftKings Sportsbook, Gonzaga is now a 4.5-point favorite over Baylor. 50% of the handle and 52% of the bets are on the Bulldogs. The total is now 159.5, and the over is getting 56% of the handle and 57% of the bets.
The NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship Game is set and we get the best of the best. The No. 1 Baylor Bears will meet the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs for all the marbles. The title game is scheduled to tip at 9:20 p.m. on Monday, April 5, with CBS broadcasting the game.
Baylor crushed Houston in the early game of the Final Four. The two sides exchanged leads in the first four minutes, but then Baylor took over. They grabbed a lead at the 15:49 mark on a Matthew Mayer three-point shot and never looked back, winning by 19. Gonzaga followed with a thrilling win over UCLA. Neither team could pull away in regulation, and we almost found ourselves headed to double overtime after Johnny Juzang hit a layup with 3.3 seconds remaining. However, Jalen Suggs banked in a three as time expired to send the Bulldogs to the national title game.
Here are the opening odds for the 2021 NCAA Men’s Championship game from DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of tip-off on Monday.
No. 1 Baylor vs No. 1 Gonzaga
Point spread: Gonzaga -5
Point Total: 160
Moneyline: Gonzaga -245, Baylor +188
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Sports data © STATS 2018

I’ve taken some time to put together a history of the points spreads for every Final Four matchup and NCAA Championship Game. This data goes back to when the field expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. I’ve included the seeds of each team, the spread and the ATS winner for all games where a line was accessible. We were unable to locate the lines for the Final Four games before the 2002-03 season.
These tables are a great way to look back over history and relive some of the biggest upsets. Connecticut’s 63-53 win over Florida in the 2014 tourney marked the end of an impressive run for favorites. It was the first upset in the semifinals since Michigan State knocked off UConn 82-73 as a 4.5-point dog in 2009.
Another interesting note is that only five times since 2003 has a Final Four team been favored by seven or more points. The dog has covered three of the four in this spot.
As far as the Championship Game, the biggest upset based on the spread since 1985 is Connecticut’s 77-74 win over Duke. They were a 9.5-point underdog back in 1994. One of the interesting things to note about that matchup is that both teams were a No. 1 seed. The next biggest spread during this stretch when two No. 1 seeds met in the title game was Florida -4 over Ohio State in 2007.
Connecticut’s not the only champion that won despite not getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers. Kansas (1988) and Villanova (1985) both won the title as 8-point underdogs. Arizona pulled off the upset as a 7-point dog in 1997.
Only once since the field has expanded to 64 teams has a team been listed as a double-digit favorite in the championship game. That honor belongs to Kentucky, who was a massive 14-point favorite over Syracuse in 1996. The Wildcats would go on to win the title, but the Orange covered the number in a 67-76 defeat.
Villanova (2) vs. North Carolina (1)
Michigan St (2) vs. N. Carolina (1)
Michigan (3) vs. Loyola-Chicago (11)
North Carolina (1) vs. Syracuse (10)
Michigan St. (2) vs. Connecticut (1)
N. Carolina (1) vs. Michigan St (5)
Mississippi St (5) vs. Syracuse (4)
Memphis State (2) vs. Villanova (8)
We have a lot more on tournament history for those interested:

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