Point Spread Chiefs Vs Chargers

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Nov 18, 2019 at 3:08 pm ET 3 min read
The Chargers will try to move closer to the top of the division against an AFC West foe that has given them fits when Los Angeles faces the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Kansas City has won nine of the last 10, but the Chargers won the most recent matchup, knocking of the Chiefs 29-28 on a last-minute touchdown and a two-point conversion. The Chargers lost 26-24 last week when the Raiders scored with 1:08 left. They dropped to 4-6, but with Philip Rivers and a resurgent running game, they are hoping to get on roll in Mexico City, site of Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a five-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 52.5, off a half-point from the opener. Before you consider making any Chargers vs. Chiefs picks, you should listen to the current NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 11 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 29-18 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 91-61 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 
Last season, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.  
Now, it has analyzed Chiefs vs. Chargers. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can see that pick at SportsLine now.
The model knows the Chiefs have an embarrassment of riches on offense and are 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 division games. Mahomes is the reigning league MVP and can get the ball to playmakers like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman or All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce. Damien Williams has taken over as the starting running back and has 302 yards and three TDs, while LeSean McCoy has 371 and two TDs. 
Kansas City will try to shore up a run defense that struggled last week, but has been stout against the pass. Derrick Nnadi and Chris Jones clog the middle, and linebackers Damien Wilson (59) and Anthony Hitchens (50) make the stops. Kansas City is going off at 12-1 Super Bowl odds, according to the latest NFL futures.
But just because Kansas City is loaded with talent on offense doesn't mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Chargers spread on Monday Night Football in this 2019 NFL in Mexico City game. 
The Chargers are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 November games and Rivers doesn't appear to have slowed down. He is 184 passing yards shy of his 14th consecutive season with at least 3,000 yards and has 14 touchdown passes. His favorite target is veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, who has 62 yards and 725 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Hunter Henry is a reliable target with 33 catches for 418 yards and three TDs. Running back Melvin Gordon finally broke out against Oakland with 108 yards and a touchdown, while Austin Ekeler has 340 yards on 90 carries.
The defense is in the top six in the league in passing yards (fifth at 207.8 per game) and total yards (sixth at 318.3) allowed. Linebacker Thomas Davis (78 tackles) stops everything that comes near him, while Joey Bosa is a dervish with 14.5 tackles for loss, including 8.5 sacks. Melvin Ingram has 4.5 sacks for the Chargers, who are 5-2 against the spread against teams with a winning record. They have 24 sacks overall and 52 tackles for loss. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins and cornerback Casey Hayward have two interceptions apiece.
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By Jason Guilbault | Apr 06, 2021, 3:07pm
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a decisive victory over the Houston Texans and will march into Los Angeles to take on another AFC rival. This matchup looks quite different from prior seasons as Philip Rivers is no longer here to will this passing offense down from deficits against the Chiefs. While these games were pretty close last season, losing by no more than ten points, you have to question this offense being able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. It is another large spread for the Chiefs, and we should be seeing this for most of the season. The Chargers defense was able to stifle the Bengals, but this will be a different task. Look for Mahomes and company to add another win to their season as they take care of business against division rivals. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, September 20th, 2020
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
TV Coverage: FOX
Where can you watch Chiefs vs. Chargers online? You can stream this game and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Chiefs Vs. Chargers Free Online Now.
Kansas City Chiefs: Austin Reiter (Q), Charvarius Ward (Q), Alex Okafor (Q), Khalen Saunders (Q)
Los Angeles Chargers: Drue Tranquill (O), Trai Turner (Q), Mike Pouncey (Q), Justin Jackson (P)
Kansas City hung up 34 points on the Houston defense in Week 1 but also held Deshaun Watson to seven points through three quarters before garbage time came. This defense limited a strong passing attack and that is a major concern for the rest of the league. Kansas City put up 369 yards of offense and did a lot on the ground with a 34-166-1 rushing line between the team. Mahomes was only sacked once and they had one penalty for five yards. This was about as perfect of a game as you could play to kick off the season. Mahomes spread the ball around as Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Demarcus Robinson all had exactly six targets. Sammy Watkins led the team with nine.
There were a lot of eyes on the rookie, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and he delivered in a major way. He played 67% of the snaps while Darrel Williams took more passing-down work with 33% of the snaps. Helaire struggled at the goal line but he had a ton of chances and that is the more important thing to look at right now. If you were high on Mecole Hardman coming into the season, he saw just 20 snaps and was fourth on the list. It looks like it might take an injury for him to move up a bit.
Los Angeles struggled a bit against the run last season and this might be a sneakier matchup for CEH than most think. Los Angeles can’t sell out on the run either given the matchup, and we might see the Chiefs target the run defense a bit more given the secondary is a tough one. The Chiefs struggled against the run last season and that lingered into Week 1.
Los Angeles is going to play a different style of football this season as the defense has the potential to be inside the top ten, despite losing Derwin James for the season. The Chargers ran the ball 39 times last week, going for 155 yards and a score. They threw just 30 times, going for 208 yards and no scores. Los Angeles struggled to get to Joe Burrow as he looked different from your usual rookie quarterback. The lack of pass rush is a concern coming into this week given Mahomes is now the quarterback they are facing. The battle will be between these cornerbacks and these wide receivers as Chris Harris and Casey Hayward will have their hands full.
There was a lot of concern coming out of this one because Austin Ekeler saw just one target. However, he had 19 rushing attempts and played 74% of the team snaps. Joshua Kelley was a guy touted in camp to get the number two role in the backfield. He saw just 18 snaps, but he had 60 yards on 12 carries, and also a score. I would expect a similar snap count this week as Kelley will be used as a change of pace back. I also anticipate more targets for Ekeler given the Chargers will likely be trailing in this one. The WR3 spot isn’t appealing in Los Angeles, but Jalen Guyton had the third most snaps behind Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.
The Chargers defense fell short of expectations last season but this is a talented group. While it might not seem like it this week, they should be a team that ranks inside the top ten against the pass. Against the run might be a different story as they struggled last season and rank 19th after Week 1. It will be a tough task against the rookie in what is a very tough offense to defend against anyway.
Spread: KC -8.5
Moneyline: KC -420 / LAC +310
Over/Under: 47.5
This is likely going to be a similar spread that we see from the Chiefs each week as they are over being touchdown favorites. The games against the Chargers were relatively close last season, as they win by ten and seven points in the two meetings. That was with Philip Rivers and now the offense runs with Tyrod Taylor. I am not sold on the Chargers offense being able to keep up against a very good Chiefs secondary. While the Chiefs will face a tougher defense in comparison to the Houston matchup, I still expect them to hang up some points and win this won comfortably. The Chiefs are 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings against the Chargers, and 7-3 over the last ten games. They are also 10-0 ATS in their last ten games, while the Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten games.
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Any Chiefs game this season is going to create an abundance of fantasy plays. While this Chargers defense isn’t going to be one I target often, this Chiefs offense is just built differently. I expect Lamar Jackson to be higher owned in comparison to Patrick Mahomes. You have Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins who see a majority of the snaps and targets in the offense alongside Travis Kelce. These are the three main options to consider from this group. Mecole Hardman hardly saw the field in Week 1, so that is a concern for him. The Chargers have Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry to look at this week. Henry is my favorite of the group because we saw targets get funneled to tight ends last season, and that should be the case again. Williams is always a high upside play given the big-play potential.
Jason Guilbault
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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