Point Spread Betting Basketball Explained
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Point Spread Betting Basketball Explained
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
^ The Sunday Times : "World Cup to kick off boom in spread betting"
^ "The perils of spread-betting" . The Times . Sep 20, 2007. Archived from the original on July 19, 2008.
^ "Gambling Commission - Home" . www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk .
^ Gambling Times: What are the Odds? Archived 2011-02-04 at the Wayback Machine
^ The Sunday Times: Spread betting
^ "Income Tax – Assessable income derivation of income – spread betting" . Australian Government ATO. 3 March 2010 . Retrieved 26 January 2011 .
^ Budworth, David. "Spread-betting fails investors in trouble" . thetimes.co.uk . Retrieved 11 October 2013 .
^ Pfanner, Eric. "Spread-bets on Cup venture into bizarre - Technology - International Herald Tribune" . The New York Times . Retrieved 11 October 2013 .
^ Rayman, Richard. "White Paper on Spread Betting" (PDF) . Cass Business School . Retrieved 11 October 2013 .
Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose" outcome, such as fixed-odds (or money-line) betting or parimutuel betting .
A spread is a range of outcomes and the bet is whether the outcome will be above or below the spread. Spread betting has been a major growth market in the UK in recent years, with the number of gamblers heading towards one million. [1] Financial spread betting (see below) can carry a high level of risk if there is no "stop". [2] In the UK, spread betting is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority rather than the Gambling Commission . [3]
The general purpose of spread betting is to create an active market for both sides of a binary wager , even if the outcome of an event may appear prima facie to be biased towards one side or the other. In a sporting event a strong team may be matched up against a historically weaker team; almost every game has a favorite and an underdog . If the wager is simply "Will the favorite win?", more bets are likely to be made for the favorite, possibly to such an extent that there would be very few betters willing to take the underdog.
The point spread is essentially a handicap towards the underdog. The wager becomes "Will the favorite win by more than the point spread?" The point spread can be moved to any level to create an equal number of participants on each side of the wager. This allows a bookmaker to act as a market maker by accepting wagers on both sides of the spread. The bookmaker charges a commission , or vigorish , and acts as the counterparty for each participant. As long as the total amount wagered on each side is roughly equal, the bookmaker is unconcerned with the actual outcome; profits instead come from the commissions.
Because the spread is intended to create an equal number of wagers on either side, the implied probability is 50% for both sides of the wager. To profit, the bookmaker must pay one side (or both sides) less than this notional amount. In practice, spreads may be perceived as slightly favoring one side, and bookmakers often revise their odds to manage their event risk.
One important assumption is that to be credited with a win, either team only needs to win by the minimum of the rules of the game, without regard to the margin of victory. This implies that teams in a winning position will not necessarily try to extend their margin—and more importantly, each team is only playing to win rather than to beat the point spread. This assumption does not necessarily hold in all situations. For example, at the end of a season, the total points scored by a team can affect future events such as playoff seeding and positioning for the amateur draft, and teams may "run up" the score in such situations. In virtually all sports, players and other on-field contributors are forbidden from being involved in sports betting and thus have no incentive to consider the point spread during play; any attempt to manipulate the outcome of a game for gambling purposes would be considered match fixing , and the penalty is typically a lifetime banishment from the sport; such is the lack of tolerance for manipulating the result of a sporting event for such purposes.
Spread betting was invented by Charles K. McNeil , a mathematics teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the 1940s. [4] In North America , the gambler usually wagers that the difference between the scores of two teams will be less than or greater than the value specified by the bookmaker , with even money for either option. An example:
Spreads are frequently, though not always, specified in half-point fractions to eliminate the possibility of a tie, known as a push . In the event of a push, the game is considered no action , and no money is won or lost. However, this is not a desirable outcome for the sports book, as they are forced to refund every bet, and although both the book and its bettors will be even, if the cost of overhead is taken into account, the book has actually lost money by taking bets on the event. Sports books are generally permitted to state "ties win" or "ties lose" to avoid the necessity of refunding every bet.
Betting on sporting events has long been the most popular form of spread betting. Whilst most bets the casino offers to players have a built in house edge, betting on the spread offers an opportunity for the astute gambler. When a casino accepts a spread bet, it gives the player the odds of 10 to 11, or -110. That means that for every 11 dollars the player wagers, the player will win 10, slightly lower than an even money bet. If team A is playing team B, the casino is not concerned with who wins the game; they are only concerned with taking an equal amount of money of both sides. For example, if one player takes team A and the other takes team B and each wager $110 to win $100, it doesn't matter what team wins; the casino makes money. They take $100 of the $110 from the losing bet and pay the winner, keeping the extra $10 for themselves. This is the house edge. The goal of the casino is to set a line that encourages an equal amount of action on both sides, thereby guaranteeing a profit. This also explains how money can be made by the astute gambler. If casinos set lines to encourage an equal amount of money on both sides, it sets them based on the public perception of the team, not necessarily the real strength of the teams. Many things can affect public perception, which moves the line away from what the real line should be. This gap between the Vegas line, the real line, and differences between other sports books betting lines and spreads is where value can be found.
A teaser is a bet that alters the spread in the gambler's favor by a predetermined margin – in American football the teaser margin is often six points. For example, if the line is 3.5 points and bettors want to place a teaser bet on the underdog, they take 9.5 points instead; a teaser bet on the favorite would mean that the gambler takes 2.5 points instead of having to give the 3.5. In return for the additional points, the payout if the gambler wins is less than even money , or the gambler must wager on more than one event and both events must win. In this way it is very similar to a parlay . At some establishments, the "reverse teaser" also exists, which alters the spread against the gambler, who gets paid at more than evens if the bet wins.
In the United Kingdom , sports spread betting became popular in the late 1980s by offering an alternative form of sports wagering to traditional fixed odds , or fixed-risk, betting. With fixed odds betting , a gambler places a fixed-risk stake on stated fractional or decimal odds on the outcome of a sporting event that would give a known return for that outcome occurring or a known loss if that outcome doesn't occur (the initial stake). With sports spread betting, gamblers are instead betting on whether a specified outcome in a sports event will end up being above or below a ‘spread’ offered by a sports spread betting firm, with profits or losses determined by how much above or below the spread the final outcome finishes at.
The spread on offer will refer to the betting firm's prediction on the range of a final outcome for a particular occurrence in a sports event, e.g., the total number of goals to be scored in a football (US: soccer) match, the number of runs to be scored by a team in a cricket match or the number of lengths between the winner and second-placed finisher in a horse race.
The gambler can elect to ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ on the spread depending on whether they think the final outcome will be higher than the top end of the spread on offer, or lower than the bottom end of the spread. The more right the gambler is then the more they will win, but the more wrong they are then the more they can lose.
The level of the gambler's profit or loss will be determined by the stake size selected for the bet, multiplied by the number of unit points above or below the gambler's bet level. This reflects the fundamental difference between sports spread betting and fixed odds sports betting in that both the level of winnings and level of losses are not fixed and can end up being many multiples of the original stake size selected.
For example, in a cricket match a sports spread betting firm may list the spread of a team's predicted runs at 340 – 350. The gambler can elect to ‘buy’ at 350 if they think the team will score more than 350 runs in total, or sell at 340 if they think the team will score less than 340. If the gambler elects to buy at 350 and the team scores 400 runs in total, the gambler will have won 50 unit points multiplied by their initial stake. But if the team only scores 300 runs then the gambler will have lost 50 unit points multiplied by their initial stake.
It is important to note the difference between spreads in sports wagering in the U.S. and sports spread betting in the UK. In the U.S. betting on the spread is effectively still a fixed risk bet on a line offered by the bookmaker with a known return if the gambler correctly bets with either the underdog or the favourite on the line offered and a known loss if the gambler incorrectly bets on the line. In the UK betting above or below the spread does not have a known final profit or loss, with these figures determined by the number of unit points the level of the final outcome ends up being either above or below the spread, multiplied by the stake chosen by the gambler.
For UK spread betting firms, any final outcome that finishes in the middle of the spread will result in profits from both sides of the book as both buyers and sellers will have ended up making unit point losses. So in the example above, if the cricket team ended up scoring 345 runs both buyers at 350 and sellers at 340 would have ended up with losses of five unit points multiplied by their stake.
In addition to the spread bet, a very common "side bet" on an event is the total (commonly called the over/under or O/U ) bet. This is a bet on the total number of points scored by both teams. Suppose team A is playing team B and the total is set at 44.5 points. If the final score is team A 24, team B 17, the total is 41 and bettors who took the under will win. If the final score is team A 30, team B 31, the total is 61 and bettors who took the over will win. The total is popular because it allows gamblers to bet on their overall perception of the game (e.g., a high-scoring offensive show or a defensive battle) without needing to pick the actual winner.
In the UK, these bets are sometimes called spread bets, but rather than a simple win/loss, the bet pays more or less depending on how far from the spread the final result is.
Example: In a football match the bookmaker believes that 12 or 13 corners will occur, thus the spread is set at 12–13.
In North American sports betting many of these wagers would be classified as over-under (or, more commonly today, total ) bets rather than spread bets. However, these are for one side or another of a total only, and do not increase the amount won or lost as the actual moves away from the bookmaker's prediction. Instead, over-under or total bets are handled much like point-spread bets on a team, with the usual 10/11 (4.55%) commission applied. Many Nevada sports books allow these bets in parlays , just like team point spread bets. This makes it possible to bet, for instance, team A and the over , and be paid if both
(Such parlays usually pay off at odds of 13:5 with no commission charge, just as a standard two-team parlay would.)
The mathematical analysis of spreads and spread betting is a large and growing subject. For example, sports that have simple 1-point scoring systems ( e.g., baseball , hockey , and soccer ) may be analysed using Poisson and Skellam statistics.
By far the largest part of the official market in the UK concerns financial instruments; the leading spread-betting companies make most of their revenues from financial markets, their sports operations being much less significant. Financial spread betting in the United Kingdom closely resembles the futures and options markets, the major differences being
Financial spread betting is a way to speculate on financial markets in the same way as trading a number of derivatives . In particular, the financial derivative Contract for difference (CFD) mirrors the spread bet in many ways. In fact, a number of financial derivative trading companies offer both financial spread bets and CFDs in parallel using the same trading platform.
Unlike fixed-odds betting, the amount won or lost can be unlimited as there is no single stake to limit any loss. However, it is usually possible to negotiate limits with the bookmaker:
Spread betting has moved outside the ambit of sport and financial markets (that is, those dealing solely with share, bonds and derivatives), to cover a wide range of markets, such as house prices. [5] By paying attention to the external factors, such as weather and time of day, those who are betting using a point spread can be better prepared when it comes to obtaining a favorable outcome. Additionally, by avoiding the favourite-longshot bias , where the expected returns on bets placed at shorter odds exceed that of bets placed at the longer odds, and not betting with one's favorite team, but rather with the team that has been shown to be better when playing in a specific weather condition and time of day, the possibility of arriving at a positive outcome is increased.
In the UK and some other European countries the profit from spread betting is free from tax. The tax authorities of these countries designate financial spread betting as gambling and not investing, meaning it is free from capital gains tax and stamp duty , despite the fact that it is regulated as a financial product by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Most traders are also not liable for income tax unless they rely solely on their profits from financial spread betting to support themselves. The popularity of financial spread betting in the UK and some other European countries, compared to trading other speculative financial instruments such as CFDs and futures is partly due to this tax advantage. However, this also means any losses cannot be offset against future earnings for tax calculations.
Conversely, in most other countries financial spread betting income is considered taxable. For example, the Australian Tax Office issued a decision in March 2010 saying "Yes, the gains from financial spread betting are assessable income under section 6-5 or section 15-15 of the ITAA 1997". [6] Similarly, any losses on the spread betting contracts are deductible. This has resulted in a much lower interest in financial spread betting in those countries.
Suppose Lloyds Bank is trading on the market at 410p bid, and 411p offer. A spread-betting company is also offering 410-411p. We use cash bets with no definite expiry , or "rolling daily bets" as they are referred to by the spread betting companies.
If I think the share price is going to go up, I might bet £10 a point ( i.e., £10 per penny the shares moves) at 411p. We use the offer price since I am "buying" the share (betting on its increase). Note that my total loss (if Lloyds Bank went to 0p) could be up to £4110, so this is as risky as buying 1000 of the shares normally.
If a bet goes overnight, the bettor is charged a financing cost (or receives it, if the bettor is shorting the stock). This might be set at LIBOR + a certain percentage , usually around 2-3%.
Thus, in the example, if Lloyds Bank are trading at 411p, then for every day I keep the bet open I am charged [taking finance cost to be 7%] ((411p x 10) * 7% / 365 ) = £0.78821 (or 78.8p)
On top of this, the bettor needs an amount as collateral in the spread-betting account to cover potential losses. Usually this is either 5 or 10% of the total exposure you are taking on but can go up to 100% on illiquid stocks. In this case £4110 * 0.1 or 0.05 = £411.00 or £205.50
If at the end of the bet Lloyds Bank traded at 400-401p, I need to cover that £4110 – £400*10 (£4000) = £110 difference by putting extra deposit (or collateral) into the account.
The punter usually receives all dividends and other corporate adjustments in the financing charge each night. For example, suppose Lloyds Bank goes ex-dividend with dividend of 23.5p. The bettor receives that amount. The exact amount received varies depending on the rules and policies of the spread betting company, and the taxes that are normally charged in the home tax country of the shares.
According to an article in The Times dated 10 April 2009, approximately 30,000 spread bet accounts were opened in the previous year, and that the largest study of gambling in the UK on behalf of the Gambling Commission found that serious problems developed in almost 15% of spread betters compared to 1% of other gambling. [7] A report from Cass Business School found that only 1 in 5 gamblers ends up a winner. [8] As noted in the report, this corresponds to the same ratio of successful gamblers in regular trading. [9] Evidence from spread betting firms themselves actually put this closer to being 1 in 10 traders as being profitable. [ citation needed ]
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($100/ |-110|)*100 = ($100/110)*100 = .9090 * 100 = $90.90 in profit
($250/100)*160 = 2.5 * 160 = $400 in profit
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Point spread betting is one of the most popular and simplest forms of
basketball bets that you can place. While this is a seemingly basic bet, it is
one of the most utilized bets even by professionals. Remember, the complexity of
a bet does not equal better odds or bigger payouts.
Some professional or
seasoned bettors only use the point spread bets and are wildly successful. Their
success comes from making correct picks, not from overcomplicating the
situation. We’re going to walk you through the basics, and the mechanics of a
basketball point spread bet, discuss the popularity and benefits, and offer some
tips and strategies to help get you moving in the right direction towards
profitability with these bet types.
It’s inevitable in sports and basketball that in each game one team is going
to be better than the other. Betting would be a little pointless if you were
able to make the exact same wager on each team. Everyone would just always bet
the better team, and the sportsbook would quickly be out of money and have to
close up shop. What point spread bets attempt to do is even the playing field
and offer bets with the same risk level on both sides of the coin. They
effectively aim to create a 50/50 even playing field.
The way the sportsbook does this is by putting out a betting line that is
based on how many points they think the better team is going to win by. This is
a lot like how our older siblings would “spot us” a few points when we played
each other in basketball as kids. For example, let’s say that Florida Gators are
playing the Arkansas Razorbacks. Let’s also say that Florida is the better team
and the sportsbook thinks they are going to win the game by seven points. They
can’t just let everyone bet evenly, or everyone would bet Florida and clean them
out. Enter the point spread. The sportsbook would set the point spread on this
game at -7 for Florida to win. The negative sign before the number signifies
that this team is the favorite to win. This means that if you want to bet on
Florida, they have to win by more than 7 points for you to win your bet.
Here are the possible outcomes if you bet on Florida at -7:
A lot of times you will see the point spread set at a half point (-6.5 or
-7.5 in this example) to get rid of any pushes.
As you may already be assuming, adjustments are made if you want to bet on
the Razorbacks. The point spread for the Razorbacks would be set at +7. It will
always be the exact opposite of the other team. As the negative sign represents
the favorite, the plus sign here represents the underdog. If you were to bet on
the Razorbacks, they can actually still lose, and you win your bet.
Here are the possible outcomes if you bet on Arkansas at +7:
Almost all point spread wagers are paid out at moneyline odds of -110. This
is almost even money minus the percentage that is taken for the sportsbook’s cut
known as the vig. Sometimes you will see a bit of variation in the payout odds,
but for the most part, you should expect to see -110. If you don’t see the
payout numbers posted but just the point spread, you can most likely assume that
you are to interpret that as being paid out at -110. If you’re ever curious,
though, just ask for clarification or look at your betting slip.
While we’re going to cover this extensively in the moneyline section of the
Basketball Betting Guide, we’ll touch briefly on what the -110 means here. -110
refers to the moneyline payout for a particular bet. If you were to bet $100 on
a basketball point spread paying -110 and win, you would be paid out a profit of
$90.90. The easy way to figure out the amount you will get paid with minus
moneyline odds is to divide your bet size by the absolute value of the betting
odds and multiply that number by 100.
If the odds are a positive moneyline, you calculate your potential profit by
dividing your bet amount by 100 and multiplying that by the odds. Let’s say you
bet $250 at odds of +160.
There are a lot of reasons that point spread bets are so popular in
basketball. We don’t anticipate any other style of bet passing point spreads
anytime soon. Here are a few of the reasons we think basketball point spread
wagers are so popular.
For those of us who aren’t bandwagon fans, our teams are going to struggle to
win a lot of games. Even some of the better teams will have games when they play
teams they’re supposed to lose to.
Without point spread betting, placing a wager
on our team to win these games would be financial suicide. Point spreads create
an even playing field for sports bettors. Even if your team is supposed to lose
by 20 points, you can still bet on them if you think they’re going to have a
better day than predicted. If you’ve ever wondered why someone was still
cheering and going nuts at the end of a blowout, you can bet they were sweating
a point spread bet.
As you may have already noticed, these bets are simple and straightforward.
Everything we’ve already taught you about point spread bets are all there is to
them. There is no hidden complex side to them. All you have to do is pick which
team you think is going to do better than the proposed line and that’s it.
The only real downside to betting basketball point spreads is that the
sportsbook charges a vig. While this is a downside, it is to be expected and is
no different from placing any other sports bet. Obviously, the sportsbook has to
make money somehow because they have to pay employees, pay for their servers or
equipment, and pay for their customer service to keep you happy. This really
isn’t a negative about point spread bets, but just something that you should be
aware of.
Remember earlier when we said that most point spread bets in basketball pay
out at -110? Well, this is where the vig is located. Sportsbooks will work to
get equal amounts of money on both sides of a game and make their money off of
the vig. If they are successful in doing so, it does not matter to them who wins
the game. For example, let’s look at our earlier example. Here are what the odds
would look like at the sportsbook:
Let’s say the sportsbook get’s $1000 in bets total on the Gators and $1000 in
bets total on Arkansas.
$1000 Original Bets Returned to Florida Winners
$909 Profit Paid out to Florida Winners
$1000 Original Bets Returned to Arkansas Winners
$909 Profit Paid out to Arkansas Winners
As you can see, the sportsbook couldn’t care less who wins this game. The way
that the sportsbook works to get the same amount of bets on each side is by
manipulating the point spread to entice bets to the side they want. Our next
section is dedicated to explaining this.
As we mentioned in the close of the last section, sportsbooks try their best
to get the same amount of total money bet on both sides of a game. If they can
accomplish this, then they are guaranteed to make a profit no matter who wins or
loses the game. The way a sportsbook goes about doing this is by manipulating
the point spread to make the less bet side more enticing.
Let’s use our same example again to make this clearer. These are the current
odds on the game as well as the amount of money that has been bet on both sides.
The amount of money bet information would not be made available to you in a
normal situation.
As you can see, the public seems to think that Florida is going to win this
game by more than seven points. If the game started now, the sportsbook would
stand to lose a lot of money if Florida did in fact win by more than seven
points. They would stand to make a lot of money if Florida lost or won by less
than seven points. Regardless of how the sportsbook thinks the game will go,
they are not in the business of gambling. They want to guarantee profit as often
as they can.
What the sportsbook will do when they start to see too much money on one side
is to adjust the point spread. This DOES NOT affect anyone that has made a bet
already. If you bet Florida -7, then that is the line you have. No one can ever
take that away from you. To try and entice more bets on Arkansas, the line might
move to this.
This means that Arkansas can now lose by seven points instead six and you’d
win with a bet on them. If this doesn’t bring in more bets, they might move the
line to the following.
Now Arkansas can lose by up to eight points, and you can still win a bet on
Arkansas. As the Arkansas line gets more appealing, more people will start to
bet that side. The sportsbook will continue to manipulate the line this way up
until game time to try and get the bets as even as possible. While they won’t be
perfect about it, they can usually get it close enough in most situations. It’s
also important to note that the line will sometimes shift by half points and
it’s also capable of shifting back in the other direction if too much money
comes in on the other side.
While we aren’t exactly sure at which dollar amounts or what formulas
sportsbooks use to determine when they shift the lines, we do know why they do
it. It is their attempt to minimize their risk as much as possible and
guarantees sportsbook profit. Lines will also move if something major happens
(like Lebron breaking his leg or something) so keep an eye out for this.
Ultimately, the shift in the line is done for the exact same reason to keep the
same amount of money on both sides of the game. As you’ll see in the strategy
and tips section, shifting lines do present some interesting opportunities for
sports bettors.
Winning at sports betting is challenging. If it were easy, everyone would
quit their jobs and do it, and sportsbooks would all be out of business. What
makes it so challenging is that the lines are usually set pretty spot on which
means it’s a bit more challenging to pick the correct side of the bet. That
being said, it’s definitely not impossible to make money betting basketball
point spreads. You’ll have to develop a winning strategy and continually tweak
it until it’s perfect. Here are a few tips and strategies that will help point
you in the right direction.
Shopping betting lines is one of the most important things you can do when
betting point spreads in basketball. While the majority of sportsbooks will have
the same line, it’s fairly common that you can find lines that are a half or
full point different. This can have a huge impact on your bottom line. If you
don’t think a half point or one full point makes that big of a difference, just
ask anyone who has bet sports for a while. They will inform you that getting an
extra half point is like winning the sports betting lottery.
This used to be impossible or extremely time-consuming when only land based
sportsbooks and casinos existed. You would have to drive hundreds of miles if
you wanted to get to another casino and then hope they still had the different
line. This would cost you travel money as well as time. Online sportsbooks make
this extremely easy now. You can check several sportsbooks lines on a game
within a matter of seconds or minutes. It doesn’t cost you any additional money,
just a few minutes of your time and can have a huge impact on the outcome of
your bets.
A common mistake that new bettors will do is to bet every single game.
Unfortunately, this is not a winning strategy no matter how sharp you are. Stick
to betting the games where you actually see value. Here’s what we mean by value.
Let’s say in our earlier example that you agree with the sportsbook that the
Florida Gators should win the game by seven. You should not bet this game then
no matter what if the line is -7. If you’re right, the best you can do is tie on
your bet. When you pick a side, you’re basically going to be guessing and
flipping a coin. Theoretically, you’ll win as many times as you lose, but you’ll
be paying the house percentage every single bet and slowly bleeding your money
and profits away.
Only bet games where you have a clear prediction on a team covering the
spread. Look for lines that you think are incorrect and put your money there.
The idea here is to be making intelligent picks that you actually believe will
win. If you’re betting every game, you’re just gambling and no longer letting
your skill and knowledge base shine through.
Let’s use our example from earlier, but this time let’s say you think that
Florida will cover the -7 spread. Should you place this bet? Maybe. Yes, this is
good value bet and one that you should bet, but maybe not right away. Let’s say
you think the public is improperly going to dump a lot of money onto Arkansas.
If this happens and you wait to place your bet, the line might move in your
favor. By waiting, you may be able to get Florida at -6.5 to win. This means
that if you bet right away, you would only tie if they won by seven points. By
waiting, you will win your bet now if Florida wins the game by seven.
The betting public as a whole is not very smart. There is a reason it is such
a lucrative business to be in for the sportsbooks. The public loves to bet
popular teams, great story lines, and trends that don’t have a lot of merits. If
you think that the public is going to bet a lot and shift the line more in your
favor, just wait. The worst that might happen is the line
doesn’t move, and you then take the bet before the game at the original
line that you still thought had value. Yes, there is a possibility of the point
spread moving the other direction. If this happens, you shouldn’t make a bet on
this game and wait for the next one.
This also comes into play on games that you think the line is correct. For
example, let’s say you think the line of Florida -7 is correct, so you elect not
to bet it because there is no value. This doesn’t mean you should never look at
this game again. If the line happens to shift in either direction, you can make
a bet that has value. If the line moves to Florida -6, you place a bet on
Florida because you originally thought they would win by seven. If the line
moves to Florida -8, then you place a bet on Arkansas at +8 because you
originally thought Florida would win by seven and Arkansas would lose by seven.
The next strategy tip is a good idea to help you be ready for these situations.
Point spread lines can be tricky in the fact that they can help shape our
views of a game just by looking at them. You may have no opinion of a game until
you look at a point spread and then your brain immediately starts looking for
evidence to back up the line. This can cause you to build your view of a game
off of what the sportsbook thinks and not what you think. The best advice here
is to have an idea of what you think the line is before you look at the
sportsbook’s lines. This will protect you from being influenced by what they
came up with and help you to spot bad lines.
A good rule of thumb with sports betting is that the sportsbook is going to
put more time, effort, and resources into setting their lines on the sports and
leagues that have the most action. This is a completely smart move on their part
as it’s where they stand to lose the most money if they make a mistake. What
this means is that the smaller sports and leagues are much more likely to have
bad lines or lines that don’t respond as quickly to trends as they should.
Regarding basketball, this means you may have more luck looking into college
basketball or even the smaller European leagues. If you do choose to go this
route, make sure that you do all of your homework and are not just jumping into
a new league blind. College basketball and Euro league betting are NOT the same
as NBA betting even though they are the same sport. This does not mean you can’t
bet the NBA and that you won’t find great lines; it just means that the bad
lines are more likely to be corrected quicker as the sharp bettors will jump all
over them, and the sportsbook will adjust.
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