Opinion: Why China Isn't Safe

Why it isn’t safe for China to resume work, and, what indicators should we pay attention to?

During the initial stages of the Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak, officials seemed much more interested in saving face or keeping up appearances rather than listening to the various interpretations and advice from experts. Which in turn led to a large number of people being relaxed about wandering in the streets, gathering or socializing. Therefore, the current standing order to resume work as normal is just a last-ditch effort to mitigate economic loss and avoid a total collapse of the economy. The situation has reached a point where the economy is in enough danger that it's more important for the central government to keep the engines running than an actual viral containment. 

So what indicators do I believe we should be watching for before China is considered “Safe”? For me, I watch two indicators: the schools and the highest level of the central government. I am not alone in this logic, all my peers are watching these two indicators before they even consider leaving their ancestral villages also.

Schools,

To be clear, I think the government of China would sacrifice the working class population for the sake of the economy in a heartbeat, but, I don’t think they would be willing to risk the safety of the children. Firstly, there is the issue of the falling birth rate in China; there simply aren't enough children born ever year in China to sustain it's real estate based economy. In other words, if there aren't enough people born every year the high housing cost cannot be justified, and possibly, a downward spiral of social decay similar to that of Hong Kong. Secondly, the children are China's future workforce and army after all, the state has invested heavily into the indoctrination of the youth and I dont think they would squander it lightly.

The Politburo Committee  

The time of the National Two Sessions has been delayed and will likely be canceled. The postponing of the National Two Sessions is something China hasn't done in decades and is a point of special significance. Furthermore, this is a clear indication that the government has no control over the spread of the virus and cannot regulate cross contamination even amongst their highest officials whom normally operate under the highest levels of security. This is also a strong indication that they intend to wait this out and observe with a "dooms day bunker style" of governance. For anyone that followed me on twitter you probably saw videos of people being welded into their homes for me, this is by far the strongest indicator that things are totally out of control in China.  

So, when should China really go back to work? In the kingdom under the center of the heavens and the earth you should only need to pay attention to two things: the time of the National Two Sessions and the start time of primary and middle school students. If both of those remain postponed indefinitely than the virus is still an issue they don’t have under control despite what the media is telling you. 

-Harry Chen Ph.D

What do you think?👇

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