On the threshold of changes

#Opinion

Oleg Karpovich and Mikhail Troyansky, Pro-Rectors at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy, on the real causes of the launch of the Russian operation in Ukraine 

From the first minute, the information war accompanying the Russian Federation’s special military operation in Ukraine has bred distorted and far-fetched interpretations of the Russian party’s goals and motives, with global media outlets, particularly the Western media, circulating them. For many months and even years, Moscow tried to inform the international public at large about the real-life situation and Russia’s concerns. However, these attempts were deliberately ignored. Efforts to demonise Russia have become ridiculous in the past few days, with the aim of replacing the facts of the matter with emotions and propaganda clichés. 

So, what was the real cause of the special military operation? First of all, the crisis around Donbass exacerbated the situation. For many years, Kiev brought this crisis to a boiling point by sabotaging the Minsk agreements. Representatives of the Ukrainian leadership repeatedly stated that it was impossible to fulfill the documents, signed in Minsk, and that they had to be revised to a certain extent. At the same time, Western countries, including France and Germany, ignored Kiev’s ostentatious reluctance to follow in the wake of the peace process, year after year. The situation could have been deemed tolerable if Ukraine’s interaction with the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics developed in a way similar to the dialogue between Moldova and Transnistria. But Kiev deliberately ignored the diplomatic process and stepped up its blockade of Donbass year in, year out. Moreover, Kiev beefed up its military potential along the line of contact to the maximum possible extent. The situation was aggravated by the harsh suppression of opposition tendencies in areas of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, not controlled by the above-mentioned people’s republics. Pre-requisites for resolving the issue under a scenario similar to the liquidation of the Republic of Serbian Krajina (Republika Srpska Krajina) in 1995 were deliberately created. Georgia chose precisely this escalation concept in 2008 when it attacked South Ossetia. This time, the Russian leadership decided to launch a pre-emptive strike. 

Second, throughout Ukraine, and especially in the country’s southeastern areas, the Ukrainian authorities implemented their official line aimed at oppressing the Russian-speaking population and any opponents of the country’s linguistic and ideological unification. In 2014, dozens of activists from pro-Russian movements were eliminated in Kharkov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and some other cities. In the past few years, the Ukrainian authorities supplemented the threats and intimidation aimed at the opposition with sanctions against their own citizens, and they also liquidated disloyal media outlets. At the same time, particularly favourable conditions were created for neo-Nazi paramilitary units, including the Azov or Aydar battalions, the C14 nationalist group, the Right Sector (banned in the Russian Federation) and others. Critical remarks on the part of international organisations, including the UN and the Council of Europe, did not influence the position of Kiev, which had enjoyed the support of Washington for all these years. Speaking of long-term prospects, this line led the country towards the chaos of a civil war. 

And, finally, the status quo that had shaped up prior to February 24, posed a serious threat to international security. Kiev’s refusal to recognise the choice of Crimea and Donbass residents, as well as Ukraine’s line to join NATO, formalised by the Ukrainian Constitution, and repeated regrets concerning the country’s non-nuclear status (Vladimir Zelensky’s Munich speech was merely the culmination of a long-standing debate in Ukrainian political circles) created the risk of a global conflict. The West’s reluctance to declare a moratorium on the expansion of NATO and to renounce Ukraine’s integration into the Alliance showed vividly that Brussels and Washington were obviously ready to aggravate the situation. 

The Ukrainian authorities had every opportunity to prevent a dramatic scenario, fraught with the sufferings of civilians, but they chose the road of confrontation. This confrontation must end as soon as possible, and this is now the only condition for de-escalating the protracted and explosive crisis around Ukraine.

This article is by Pro-Rectors of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy