Ohio State Spread Betting
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Ohio State Spread Betting
Jan 11, 2021, 04:56pm EST | 11 906 views
One of the most wild and unpredictable college football campaigns in history is set to end with a rather unsurprising matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes. These powerhouse programs both ran the table in the regular season and won their respective semifinal bowl game to reach the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship Game, where the No. 1 Crimson Tide are now favored to beat the No. 3 Buckeyes.
This battle-tested Alabama squad features several NFL-caliber talents in the starting lineup, including Heisman-winning star receiver Devonta Smith. Smith, who has racked up 105 receptions, 1,641 yards and 20 touchdowns, became the first player at his position to capture college football’s highest honor since Desmond Howard won it in 1991. The Tide boast a quality defense that is headlined by elite corner back Patrick Surtain II, a potential top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, a powerful interior rusher in Christian Barmore and a healthier Dylan Moses—the linebacker who has battled to come back from a torn ACL suffered last season—to name just a few of their playmakers on that side of the ball. Alabama quarterback Mac Jones—who finished third in the Heisman race—is also poised to play perhaps his final game for the program after a sterling season in which he amassed 4,036 yards and 36 touchdowns while completing 77% of his passing attempts.
To finish his collegiate career with a national championship, Jones will need to outduel the best signal-caller Alabama has faced all season in Ohio State’s Justin Fields. Despite his team playing just seven games this year, Fields accumulated 1,906 yards and 21 scores while completing 73% of his passes and added another 316 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, cementing his status as a top pro prospect. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, Fields took a nasty shot to the ribs in the Sugar Bowl and may not be 100% healthy going into the 2021 CFP National Championship Game. The squad may lean on running back Trey Sermon even more than they have during the last two games, a pair of matchups in which the senior delivered an impressive 524 yards and three TDs on 60 totes. The Buckeyes defense shouldn’t be underestimated either, with players like versatile defensive back Shaun Wade and athletic linebacker Baron Browning just a couple of top-tier talents who are gearing up to stymie the Alabama attack tonight.
It’s sure to be an exciting battle and fans won’t want to miss a minute of the thrilling conclusion to the college football season. Read on for a full betting preview that will have you prepared for the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship Game. You can find the complete schedule, start time, TV channel, live stream site, stats, betting trends, updated odds, prop bets and pro picks courtesy of Jon Price of SportsInformationTraders.com for this Alabama vs. Ohio State title clash.
Date and Start Time: Monday, January 11 at 8 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: ESPN, WatchESPN
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
The spread on the 2021 CFP National Championship Game has shifted since the semifinals wrapped up and the game first went on the board with Alabama laying a touchdown. Crimson Tide wagers have caused most shops to adjust the betting line to ALA -8.5, with 52% of all tickets and 60% of the cash wagered against the spread backing the favorites.
Because the spread has been adjusted, Alabama has become an even larger moneyline favorite in the national championship. One would now need to risk $3.15 to return $1 on the Crimson Tide winning tonight at -315 odds, while Ohio State would pay out $2.40 for each $1 staked on the upset at +240 odds. These odds imply a 76% probability that ‘Bama is victorious in the CFP finale and a 29% chance that the Buckeyes are able to overcome the odds and outright win. Note that these percentages add up to more than 100% due to the vig, which is the cut a sportsbook takes for facilitating bets.
The national title game total has also dropped slightly over the last few days, with the over-under now dipping down to 75 after opening at 76.5. Bettors are evenly split in terms of the number of bets made on the total—both the under and over have drawn exactly 50% of wagers—but the big money is rooting for a low-scoring affair. With just a few hours left until kickoff, the under is responsible for a whopping 71% of the handle. This isn’t all that uncommon of a scenario, with the more casual betting public hoping for a barn burner in a big game and the professional bettors leaning under to capitalize on what they believe is a value play.
Alabama and Ohio State have met four prior times leading up to the 2021 CFP National Championship Game, with the Crimson Tide holding a 3-1 advantage in the all-time series. ‘Bama beat the Buckeyes in the 1978 Sugar Bowl, the 1986 regular season and the 1995 Citrus Bowl, but faltered in the most recent meeting at the 2015 Sugar Bowl. Ohio State finally managed to top the Tide in that matchup, earning a 42-35 comeback win and advancing to the finals where it would go on to claim the national championship.
PFF College tweeted Ezekiel Elliot’s game-sealing touchdown from the last time Ohio State and Alabama squared off:
The Crimson Tide have gone 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS across 12 games leading up to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, while the Buckeyes own a 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS record during the 2020 season.
Ohio State has been the best underdog team in the country over the last eight seasons, going 8-1 SU and ATS in the nine games the program was getting points. Alabama has compiled a 113-11 SU and 64-59-1 ATS record as a favorite in the same span.
Since the College Football Playoff began following the 2014 campaign, Alabama has gone 8-3 SU but just 4-7 ATS in postseason play. Ohio State is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS across eight bowl games.
The Crimson Tide have been selected to participate in the CFP six times since its inception—missing out just once following the 2019 campaign—and have gone 7-3 SU and 3-7 ATS and in their 10 CFP matchups. The Buckeyes have made the CFP field four times, going 3-2 SU and ATS in five games.
If Ohio State outright wins the 2021 CFP National Championship Game, it would be the largest upset in CFP history. The current record was set by the Buckeyes in the inaugural College Football Playoff, when they upset an Alabama opponent favored by 7.5 points in the Sugar Bowl semifinal. Here is the list of the 10 largest spreads in CFP history, as well as the five biggest upsets the event has seen over the last seven years.
The 2021 CFP National Championship’s 75-point total is tied for the second-largest over-under in CFP history. The record was set in the 2018 Orange Bowl, when oddsmakers placed a total of 80.5 points on a matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma. That game narrowly failed to reach the lofty mark, with the final score tallying up to 79 points in a contest the Tide would win by a 45-34 margin. Here is a look at the top-10 largest over-unders in College Football Playoff history:
Game MVP Winner
Mac Jones 7/2
Justin Fields 9/2
Devonta Smith 5/1
Najee Harris 5/1
Jaylen Waddle 10/1
Trey Sermon 10/1
John Metchie III 16/1
Chris Olave 18/1
Garrett Wilson 18/1
Master Teague III 18/1
Total Passing Yards – Justin Fields (Ohio State)
Over/Under 290½
Total Completions – Justin Fields (Ohio State)
Over/Under 20½
Total TD Passes – Justin Fields (Ohio State)
Over/Under 3
Total Passing Yards – Mac Jones (Alabama)
Over/Under 365½
Total Completions – Mac Jones (Alabama)
Over/Under 24½
Total TD Passes – Mac Jones (Alabama)
Over/Under 3½
Total Receiving Yards – Chris Olave (Ohio State)
Over/Under 95½
Total Receiving Yards – Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)
Over/Under 71½
Total Receiving Yards – Jeremy Ruckert (Ohio State)
Over/Under 45½
Total Receiving Yards – DeVonta Smith (Alabama)
Over/Under 135½
Total Touchdowns – DeVonta Smith (Alabama)
Over/Under 1½
Total Receiving Yards – John Metchie (Alabama)
Over/Under 66½
Total Receiving Yards – Najee Harris (Alabama)
Over/Under 38½
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 01: DeVonta Smith #6 of the Alabama Crimson Tide moves on the field ... [+] during the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl football game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at AT&T Stadium on January 01, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. The Alabama Crimson Tide defeated the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 31-14. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
Total Rushing Yards – Trey Sermon (Ohio State)
Over/Under 98½
Total Rushing Yards – Justin Fields (Ohio State)
Over/Under 55½
Total Rushing Yards – Najee Harris (Alabama)
Over/Under 106½
First Score of Game
Alabama Touchdown 1/1
Ohio State Touchdown 7/5
Alabama Field Goal 15/2
Ohio State Field Goal 8/1
Alabama Safety 40/1
Ohio State Safety 40/1
Will either team take lead after trailing 15pts or more?
Will both teams score at least 30 points?
Will either team score 40 or more points?
Will either team score 50 or more points?
Will either starting QB not finish the game?
Over/Under 54.5 yards
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD Scored?
I've been working in the realm of sports my entire career, starting as a breaking news writer right out of Arizona State University. After three years of writing, I
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The point spread on the College Football National Championship between Ohio State and Alabama continued to grow over the weekend, while the betting action on the game was almost dead even entering game day at sportsbooks around the nation.
On Sunday night, roughly 24 hours before Monday's kickoff, the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas had only two more bets on Alabama than on Ohio State. At BetMGM sportsbooks, the two teams were separated by just seven bets.
"Don't think I've ever seen such a high-volume game have a ticket count that tight," John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook, told ESPN.
Despite the balanced action, Alabama had grown to a consensus 9-point favorite over the Buckeyes on Monday morning. The Crimson Tide opened as around 8-point favorites. The line dipped to as low as -7 last week, but had steadily be moving in favor of Alabama in recent days.
The action was a little more-lopsided on Alabama at DraftKings, veteran bookmaker Johnny Avello said.
"I think there will be money on the Ohio State money line [on Monday]," Avello said. "I think they'll end up laying Alabama [on the point spread] and taking Ohio State on the money line."
The best-case scenario for multiple sportsbooks was Alabama to win outright but not cover the spread.
"That's not unusual," Avello said. "That's typically the way the betting on these games go."
Here are the notable bets from wild-card weekend.
• Consensus opening lines for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill:
Rams at Packers (-7, 46.5)
Ravens at Bills (-2.5, 50)
Browns at Chiefs (-9.5, 55)
Buccaneers at Saints (-3.5, 50)
• The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas opened the Saints as 5.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers and instantly took sharp action on Tampa Bay, pushing the number down to -4 Sunday night. By Monday morning, the number had settled at New Orleans -3 (-120).
• All three underdogs covered the closing spread on Saturday, producing a big win for the books after the betting public had latched on to each of the favorites in the opening day of wild-card weekend.
Bettors battled back Sunday, with two of three favorites -- the Ravens and Saints -- covering the spread. "[We] gave back what we won yesterday alone on the Saints game," Jeff Stoneback, director of BetMGM sportsbooks in Nevada, told ESPN on Sunday.
• Underdogs went 4-2 against the closing line over the weekend and are now 15-3 against the spread in the wild-card round the last four postseasons.
• Shortly before kickoff of the nightcap between the Browns and Steelers, a bettor with BetMGM in Nevada placed a $550,000 on Cleveland +5.5, the largest reported wager of the weekend. Even with the giant bet on the Browns, BetMGM still needed Cleveland in the game, thanks to liability on parlays and teasers that were tied to the Steelers.
• Other reported big bets over the weekend included: $330,000 on under 48 in the Bears-Saints, which won $300,000. $240,000 on Ravens -3 (-120), which won $200,000. $210,000 on Saints -10, which won $176,000.
• The best result of the weekend for sportsbook PointsBet was the Rams winning outright over the favored Seahawks, followed by the underdog Browns' win over the Steelers.
The worst result for PointsBet was the favored Ravens winning and covering the spread against the Titans.
• The best result of the weekend for the SuperBook was the Colts covering the spread in a 27-24 loss to the Bills. "The whole world was on Buffalo," the SuperBook's Murray said. "If Colts had won that game outright, it would've been one of our biggest wins of the year."
• The weekly betting interest on the NFL has not been significantly hurt by the coronavirus pandemic. States with legal online sports betting have routinely set monthly records for amount wagered during football season. However, COVID's impact on futures markets, like the odds to win the Super Bowl, has been severe. Jason Scott, BetMGM sportsbook director, estimated the amount wagered on the odds to win the Super Bowl was down upwards of 200% year-over-year.
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More bets have been placed and more money has been staked on the New York Mets to win the World Series than any other team at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. After last week's blockbuster trade for superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and pitcher Carlos Carrasco , the Mets' odds to win the World Series improved from 16-1 to 12-1.
"The Mets are our biggest liability right now for World Series futes," Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill U.S., said in a release from the company.
Cleveland's World Series odds fell from 30-1 to 45-1, after the trade.
Odds to win World Series (via William U.S., as of Sunday)
Dodgers +425
Yankees +550
Padres +900
Braves +1100
White Sox +1100
Mets +1200
Underdogs in the NBA are off to a hot start, covering the spread at nearly a 60% clip three weeks into the season.
Early last week, Liverpool opened as a small favorite, around +108, over Aston Villa in a FA Cup match slated for Friday. The odds remained steady until Thursday morning, as word start to spread of a COVID-19 outbreak that caused Aston Villa to close its training facility. In a two-hour stretch, from 10:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. ET, Aston Villa went from a +220 underdog to a +700 underdog at sportsbooks around the globe.
On Friday, Aston Villa announced a lineup featuring only youth players. Fourteen players were making their debut for Aston Villa, which closed as a 30-1 underdog at William Hill U.S. books and lost 4-1.
... Sports betting lobbyist Jeremy Kudon, via email
Jeremy Kudon, founder and chairman of the Public Policy Group for lobbying firm Orrick, has been in the thick of expanded sports betting legalization in the United States, representing professional sports leagues and prominent gaming companies. He participated in this week's Q&A, centered on New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's public support of legalizing online sports betting.
Q: What hurdles remain for New York to legalize online sports betting?
Co-hosted by Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum, Bet is available for live and on-demand viewing on the ESPN App and on ESPN's social media feeds on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. Watch
A: It's worth taking a moment and recognizing just how significant Gov. Cuomo's announcement was. For three years, we've been unable to get online sports betting legislation past the 50-yard line in New York. Now we are in the red zone. The major remaining hurdles are (1) ensuring the New York Assembly and Senate include online sports betting in their budgets; and (2) helping the governor's office and legislature reach agreement on a framework that will lead to the best online sports betting market in the nation and generate hundreds of millions of dollars in much-needed revenue for New York. And because nothing in the state legislatures is ever simple, all of that has to happen before the budget is voted on and signed into law on April 1.
Q: In your experience, what do you think the professional leagues you represent, such as the NBA and Major League Baseball, believe is necessary to create a successful, robust sports betting market in New York?
A: The leagues' priorities for online sports betting legislation also happen to be the core ingredients for a successful market: provisions that protect the integrity of the underlying games and ensure that bettors are using official league data -- when available -- for in-play wagers; a framework that allows multiple operators to participate in the legal market; and provisions, like remote registration and deposit, that allow mobile operators to compete with illegal offshore sports books. I think you'll see in the next two years that the states that incorporate these priorities in their frameworks, like Michigan, Virginia and Tennessee, will have the most success.
Q: What do you believe is a reasonable timeline for regulated online sports betting to be up and running in New York?
A: If online sports betting is included in the final budget on April 1, I don't see any reason it shouldn't be up and running by the start of NFL season in September. The [New York] Gaming Commission already has regulations in place for the retail sportsbooks at the state's four casinos. It shouldn't be that difficult to issue temporary regulations for online sports books and license those companies who are currently operating in New Jersey or the dozen other states with online sports betting. That said, it has been 12 months and counting since Michigan signed its sports betting law and the state has yet to take its first online wager.
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