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What the infrastructure bill means for the steel industry
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Which stocks will benefit from the infrastructure bill?
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Aug. 11 2021, Published 8:23 a.m. ET
The Senate has passed the bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill. There was a rally in stocks that benefit from infrastructure spending. Steel is among the industries that will benefit from physical infrastructure creation. Nucor (NUE) is the largest U.S.-based steel company . Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and U.S. Steel Corporation (X) are the other leading steel producers in the country. What are the best stocks to buy and play the infrastructure bill?
Steel stocks are outperforming in 2021 anyway as U.S. steel prices have jumped to record highs. U.S. steel companies are posting record earnings and the trend is expected to continue in the coming quarters.
Several other industries will benefit from the infrastructure bill . Charging infrastructure companies like ChargePoint will gain given the Biden administration's thrust on charging infrastructure and electric vehicles. Companies like Caterpillar will also benefit. Within the metals space, aluminum and copper producers will benefit from the infrastructure bill.
Copper is a proxy play on the renewable energy and electric vehicle industry and its intensity is higher in these industries. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is the largest U.S.-based copper miner.
Higher spending on physical infrastructure would invariably lead to higher demand for steel. Nucor estimates that $100 billion of infrastructure investments would lift the annual U.S. steel demand by 5 million tons. Meanwhile, the impact of the infrastructure bill won't be the same for all of the steel companies.
First, companies with high exposure to infrastructure-related steel products like rebars would benefit more. Nucor and Commercial Metals Company (CMC) are leading rebar plays in the U.S. market.
Also, companies with a higher spare capacity to serve the expected increase in demand will benefit more. Here again, Nucor would fit the bill since the company has been investing heavily over the last two years to ramp up its capacity.
Generally, steel prices tend to move in tandem. The infrastructure bill is positive for the entire industry and not just rebar producers. Flat steel producers like CLF and X would also benefit from higher steel prices. Since the infrastructure bill will lead to higher steel demand, it will support prices. Higher steel prices will help lift domestic mills' earnings.
As I mentioned previously, Nucor is the one steel stock that you can actually hold across the cycle. The company has high margins which are much more stable than companies like CLF and X. This doesn't mean that CLF and X aren't good stocks. However, NUE is a diverse and attractive pick for investors.
The company has a dividend yield of 1.4 percent and it has been following a progressive dividend policy. Nucor has an investment-grade credit rating and management has proved its mettle across the business cycle. Also, given its rising shipment profile, it looks like a good way to play the infrastructure bill.
From a valuation perspective, Nucor trades at an NTM PE multiple of 7.4x. The stock looks undervalued and cheap at these prices based on the current steel supercycle. CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer is also bullish on Nucor stock and said that it's a cheap stock.
Nucor realizes the importance of the infrastructure bill and called its passing by the Senate a “significant day” while speaking with Cramer on his Mad Money show .
Nucor stock has more than doubled this year and is among the top three gainers in the S&P 500 index. The stock could see more upside after the infrastructure bill. Nucor stock is still one of the best ways to play the Biden administration’s infrastructure push.
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NUE – Amid depressed demand due to China’s ongoing COVID-19-related lockdowns and disrupted global supply chains owing to geopolitical tensions, steel prices have witnessed a significant decline over the past month. However, amid the market sell-off, we think buying the stocks of fundamentally sound steel companies Nucor (NUE) and United States Steel (X) at attractive valuations could be rewarding. Read on.
The steel industry has been under immense pressure lately due to reduced demand and logistical disruptions. China’s strict lockdown measures have reduced steel consumption and industrial production, while the Russia-Ukraine war has aggravated supply chain disruptions. These factors have led to a drastic dip in steel prices. The Raw Steels Monthly Metals Index (MMI) plunged 8.9% from April to May.
But amid the broad market sell-offs, various buy-the-dip opportunities have been created for investors. With rebounding demand in the manufacturing and construction sectors and increasing investments in the infrastructure sector, the steel industry has promising growth prospects over the long run.
Given these factors, we think it could be profitable to invest in quality steel stocks Nucor Corporation ( NUE ) and United States Steel Corporation ( X ) on their price dips.
NUE in Charlotte, N.C., manufactures and sells steel and steel products. The company operates through three segments: Steel Mills; Steel Products; and Raw Materials. Its Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, sheet piling, plate steel, and bar steel products. Its Steel Products segment provides hollow structural section steel tubing products, cold finished steel products, and wire and wire mesh products. Its Raw Materials segment produces direct reduced iron (DRI) and brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals.
Last month, NUE acquired Elite Storage Solutions, a steel racking manufacturer, for $75 million. “We are excited to grow our steel racking capabilities with this acquisition of Elite Storage Solutions. Establishing a manufacturing presence in the Southeast complements our existing steel racking business and allows us to serve our racking customers nationwide more efficiently,” said Giff Daughtridge, President of Sheet and Tubular Products.
In February, NUE acquired a majority ownership position in California Steel Industries, Inc. by purchasing a 50% equity interest from a subsidiary of Vale S.A. and a 1% equity ownership stake from JFR Steel Corporation. This joint venture is expected to give NUE a strong presence in the Western region and accelerate its ability to produce a wider range of value-added sheet products.
In its fiscal year 2022 first quarter, ended April 2, 2022, NUE’s net sales increased 49.5% year-over-year to $10.49 billion. Its earnings before income taxes and noncontrolling interests grew 123.2% year-over-year to $2.80 billion. The company’s net earnings rose 125.5% year-over-year to $2.23 billion. Its net earnings attributable to NUE stockholders and net earnings per share came in at $2.10 billion and $7.67, respectively, registering an increase of 122.4% and 147.4% from the prior-year period.
Analysts expect NUE’s EPS to grow 61.1% year-over-year to $8.34 for its fiscal 2022 second quarter, ending June 30, 2022. It is no surprise that it has surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters. The $11.79 billion consensus revenue estimate for the current quarter represents a 34.1% rise from the prior-year period.
The stock has plunged 25% in price over the past month and closed yesterday’s trading session at $125.07.
NUE’s POWR Ratings reflect this promising outlook. It has an overall grade of B, which equates to Buy in our proprietary rating system. The POWR Ratings assess stocks by 118 distinct factors, each with its own weighting.
NUE has a B grade for Growth and Quality. Within the A-rated Steel industry, it is ranked #11 of 33 stocks. To see additional POWR Ratings (Value, Momentum, Stability, and Sentiment) for NUE, click here .
United States Steel Corporation ( X )
Pittsburgh, Pa.-based X manufactures and sells flat-rolled and tubular steel products in North America and Europe. The company operates through four segments: North American Flat-Rolled (Flat-Rolled); Mini Mill; U.S. Steel Europe (USSE); and Tubular Products (Tubular). It provides strip mill plates, tin mill products, iron ore, and coke. In addition, it offers hot-rolled, cold-rolled, coated sheets and electrical products, electric resistance welded sheet casting and tubing products, and line pipe and mechanical tubing products.
On Feb.28, X advanced its metallics strategy with pig iron investment at Gary Works. The $60 million investment might produce up to $500,000 tons of pig iron annually and provide a critical raw material input for its electric arc furnaces (EAF). X’s low-cost iron ore is a significant strategic advantage. Further, an investment in pig iron is expected to transfer the company’s low-cost iron ore advantage to its EAF footprint and accelerate growth.
In January, X and Carnegie Foundry, a leading robotics and AI studio agreed to a strategic investment and partnership. The two companies will work to accelerate industrial automation driven by advanced robotics and AI. With this partnership, X might fulfill its customers’ needs for a resilient and efficient supply chain by introducing highly advanced technologies.
X’s net sales increased 42.8% year-over-year to $5.23 billion in its fiscal 2022 first quarter, ended March 31, 2022. Its earnings before income taxes rose 1,126.1% year-over-year to $1.12 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA grew 142.6% from its year-ago value to $1.34 billion. The company’s adjusted earnings and net earnings per share attributable to X were $891 million and $3.05, respectively, registering an increase of 214.8% and 182.4% year-over-year.
Analysts expect X’s revenue for its fiscal 2022 second quarter, ending June 30, 2022, to be $6 billion, representing a 19.4% rise from the same period in 2021. The Street expects the company’s EPS for the current quarter to come in at $3.49, representing a 3.5% increase year-over-year. Also, the company has an impressive revenue and earnings history because it has topped the consensus revenue and EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.
Shares of X have de
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