Nfl Playoff Spreads 2022

Nfl Playoff Spreads 2022

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2022 NFL playoff odds: Every team's 2022 NFL playoff odds

By Ryan Kirksey,

OddsChecker

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Last updated 8/4/22

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All 32 NFL training camps have officially opened and we are less than one week away from the first preseason game of the 2022 season. With the regular season fast approaching, what teams look like locks to make the playoffs and which teams provide some betting value heading into the season?
There is a zero percent chance that Tom Brady would come out of retirement to lead this Tampa Bay team again if he wasn't absolutely convinced they would make another deep playoff run. Even since training camp began, the team already improved their offense by signing future Hall of Famer Julio Jones to be a WR3. Considering the sad state of the NFC South, only catastrophic injuries or a massively unexpected drop-off from Tom Brady would keep this team out of the postseason.
The Buffalo Bills have completely replaced the Patriots as the elite team in the AFC East and they have perhaps the best overall quarterback in the league in Josh Allen. They demolished their divisional counterparts in the playoffs 47-17 and were one defensive stand away from making the AFC Championship game last season. Emerging wide receiver Gabriel Davis looks like he is ready to make the leap into stardom and they added all-pro Von Miller to help improve the pass rush. They will make a deep playoff run again.
I'm not betting on this to happen, but there is a scenario where the NFC North torch is finally passed to another team this year. The biggest hole the Packers have to fill is obviously Davante Adams. The best wide receiver in the NFL and one of the premier red zone threats in the league moves over to Las Vegas, leaving Aaron Rodgers to search for a new number one target. If Allen Lazard or Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs are not ready to move into that role, how much does the offense suffer? Rodgers will be 39 this year and has been wavering on his long-term commitment to the team this offseason. If the passing game suffers and left tackle David Bakhtari's knee injury continues to keep him out, we could see the first cracks in the Green Bay armor. But I'm not betting on it.
I understand that everyone is all excited to see what Trey Lance can do in San Francisco and Kyler Murray just signed a massive deal in Arizona, but the defending Super Bowl champion Rams at just -270 to make the playoffs is just downright disrespectful. They replace outgoing wide receiver Robert Woods with Allen Robinson, Cam Akers is now almost a year removed from his Achilles injury, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey should return soon following offseason shoulder surgery. This offense was top-eight in both yards per game and points per game in 2021 and should improve in year two with Matthew Stafford under center.
The best offensive unit in 2021 has some questions to answer for 2022 with the loss of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup not ready for the start of the season due to injury, and Ezekiel Elliott another year older and slower. But what the Cowboys have going for them are a relatively weak division (although Philadelphia should be improved) and an ascending defense that includes superstars like Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs plus Leighton Vander Esch and DeMarcus Lawrence.
The Kansas City Chiefs have made the playoffs every year since 2015, including three straight AFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl win. But this is the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era where the Chiefs seems somewhat vulnerable and in slight danger of missing the postseason. That is unlikely to happen based on oddsmakers views of this team, but Denver and Las Vegas both made massive offseason additions to their offense and the Chargers have Justin Herbert emerging as a full-blown star. Since this is an exercise in who makes the postseason and not who wins their division, we can feel comfortable laying some units on the Chiefs, but they are sure to have some stiff competition in 2022.
All eyes turn to Trey Lance as he was coronated as the new 49ers starter before training camp begins. But they were able to re-sign just about all of their impact-free agents and also brought in some secondary help by way of Chavarius Ward and George Odum. This team was one score away from the Super Bowl last season after making it all the way to the championship game in 2020. The division title will be a tough trophy to grab with the Rams and Cardinals both improved, but the 49ers should at minimum sneak into a Wild Card spot.
After being destroyed in the Wild Card round last season by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Eagles were looking to make a splash in the offseason to take their team to the next level. They did just that by acquiring dynamic wide receiver A.J. Brown to add to an offense that already features Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, and Miles Sanders. The Eagles have one of the easier schedules in the NFL this year (on paper), so another Wild Card berth seems likely assuming they can beat up on New York and Washington in their division.
The Colts were tremendously unlucky in 2021, with seven of their eight losses coming within a margin of one score. Their point differential should have placed them around 11-6 last year, yet they finished 9-8. With a better quarterback in Matt Ryan under center plus the league's most dominant rusher (Jonathan Taylor) and offensive line, the Colts should have on issue grabbing onto at least a Wild Card. But their sites are on taking the division from the Titans and oddsmakers think this is the year they get it back.
After a heartbreaking loss in overtime to the Raiders in the last regular season game of 2021, the Chargers were on the outside looking in for the playoffs. But this season, they have vowed to change that and look ready to fight their way in. They made several key additions to improve the defense (bottom 10 in yards per game allowed to opponents), and are counting on third-year quarterback Justin Herbert to take another step to superstardom. Herbert was masterful in his second year, throwing for 38 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards while throwing an interception on just two percent of his passes. This is the toughest division in football for 2022, but my money is on them making it in to the seven-team field for 2022.
Last season went sideways quickly for the presumed favorites in the AFC North. First, they had an uncharacteristically bad defense that allowed 279 passing yards per game to opponents, 13 more than any other team. Star quarterback Lamar Jackson missed five games with injuries and they lost both of their running backs (J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards) in the preseason to long-term injuries. After all that turmoil, they traded away their best wide receiver in Marquise Brown, but are still projected to be the favorite to come out of their division. Pittsburgh and Cleveland both look like a mess with their quarterback situations, so the Ravens and AFC Champion Bengals should battle for the postseason all year. I believe Lamar Jackson comes in with a chip on his shoulder and lays waste to the rest of the league this year.
Yes, you are reading that correctly, after finishing last year 7-10, the Broncos are the third team out of the AFC West that oddsmakers believe will make the 2022 postseason. That's what happens when you have a Rocky Mountain-sized shift at quarterback from Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock to All-Pro Russell Wilson. The Broncos already were third in the league in fewest points per game allowed to opponents and now the offense is magnitudes better. The Broncos are two stars deep at wide receiver and running back and feature one of the more dominant defenses in the league.
It's not often you will see a team that lost the Super Bowl by just three points at only -144 to make the postseason the following year. Especially considering Joe Burrow is another year removed from injury and the Bengals made improvements to the offensive line, this is a team that looks like it is still on the rise. They were the biggest benefactors of the Ravens' down year in 2021, and the prevailing thought is those two teams will battle for the division crown up until they play each other on the last day of the regular season. But with improved teams like the Raiders, Colts, and Chargers all looking to steal that last Wild Card slot from 2021, the Bengals can't afford a Super Bowl hangover if they want to get back to the postseason. Still a strong value for a likely playoff team.
And here is where things start to get really interesting. The Vikings represent a very polarizing team among NFL analysts and oddsmakers this season. On one hand, they replace defensive-minded coach Mike Zimmer with offensive mind Kevin O'Connell. That should cause the Vikings' offense to take a step up considering weapons like Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn. But they also allowed the third-most yards per game to opponents last season and don't project to be much better on that side of the ball. They clearly still have Green Bay to contend with, but their offense just might help propel them past some other borderline NFC teams like Cleveland and New Orleans.
At 12-5 in 2021, the Tennessee Titans ran away with the AFC South and cruised to a playoff berth behind another strong year from Ryan Tannehill and half a season from Derrick Henry that produced 937 yards and 10 touchdowns. But their record should have been closer to 10-7 and now they face some serious questions on offense. They lost one of the most athletic wide receivers in the game in A.J. Brown and replaced him with Robert Woods who is mega-talented but is coming off a serious knee injury suffered last season. Derrick Henry is also coming back from a broken foot and will turn 29 during the upcoming season. He has over 900 carries the last three seasons and it's a wait-and-see game if he can withstand another year of pounding. I'm personally not pulling the trigger on any Tennessee postseason bets this year.
If you've ever wondered what it looks like when Vegas has no idea what to do with a team and just throws up their hands at the whole situation, this is it. The Browns at +100 were nothing more than a placeholder until the Deshaun Watson legal issues were resolved. That decision came down Monday morning and Watson will be suspended for just six games of the 2022 season. This likely sets off a domino effect of various moves. Do the Browns now sign Watson's BFF Will Fuller? Watson now can ramp up training camp activity with the first team knowing he will be back in late October. Regardless of what you think about the suspension decision handed down by an independent arbiter, Watson at QB for 11 games bumps this team up to the fringe of playoff contention will Amari Cooper and all the offensive weapons they have in place.
Now that the circus of Kyler Murray's contract and the "homework clause" controversy are behind us, we can start to focus on what the Cardinals will look like on the field this year. The offense is going to take a hit with Deandre Hopkins suspended for the first six games of the year, Christian Kirk off to Jacksonville, and Chase Edmonds out of the picture. But Arizona brought in Murray's college buddy, Marquise Brown, which should give the Redbirds another intermediate to deep threat in the passing game. But the defense will also feel the loss of Chandler Jones to free agency, who left for the Raiders. Put it all together and Arizona has a tough road ahead to make it back to the playoffs. I'm likely holding off on betting on this team until we see how the first six weeks shake out.
Gone are the offensive schemes led by Sean Payton and Drew Brees. New head coach Dennis Allen will look to instill a stronger defensive mindset on this team while still giving rehabbed quarterback Jameis Winston room to throw his deep ball. With Michael Thomas seemingly healthy and new stud wide receiver Chris Olave in the fold, much of the offensive questions rest on what happens with Alvin Kamara's legal troubles and is he suspended during the season. With Winston often being a roller coaster ride behind center, it's tough to see them overtaking Tampa Bay for the division. The last playoff spot in the NFC is their only hope, and that will also be a tall task.
The 2021 Miami Dolphins had one of the strangest seasons you will ever see. They had a seven-game losing streak that preceded a seven-game winning streak. But winning eight of their last nine games are where the Dolphins are drawing their motivation under new head coach Mike McDaniel (formerly of the 49ers). Similar to past San Francisco teams, the Dolphins have built up a stable of running backs (Sony Michel, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Myles Gaskin), but also have their first elite receiver in many years in Tyreek Hill. If the Tyreek to Tua Tagovailoa connection clicks early, this team has a great chance to sneak past the Patriots for a Wild Card spot in the AFC.
There are some individual pieces to like in Washington these days, but I just can't see paying anything close to +150 on playoff odds for this team in early August. Carson Wentz was brought in to help stabilize the quarterback position for the first time in about a million years, but he is on his third team in three years and hasn't thrown for more than 3,500 yards since 2019. Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are both big-time playmakers, but Wentz is known for being ultra-conservative. The Commanders may also have the best young defensive player in Chase Young, but their secondary still stinks and they allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game to opponents in 2021.
The Patriots surprised everyone last year (except perhaps the New England front office) by going 10-7 under rookie quarterback Mac Jones and making the playoffs. And while Jones was an effective game manager and running back Damian Harris scored seemingly at will last year, it was the New England defense that led the way. They ranked second in points per game allowed to opponents (17.8 per game) and tied with San Francisco for third-fewest yards per game allowed. This year the Patriots have to contend with a much-improved Miami Dolphins team so their path to the postseason looks much murkier.
After making the playoffs as the last AFC Wild Card by winning the last game of the season in 2021, the Raiders don't feel like stopping there. They loaded up in the offseason by bringing in Davante Adams, Chandler Jones, DeMarcus Robinson, Duran Harmon, and Vernon Butler for another run at the postseason. The only thing stopping the Raiders now is that the rest of the division is also improved around them. But without all the Jon Gruden distractions from 2021, this is a team that certainly looks like good value if you can find their odds around +170.
The last time the Giants won a playoff game, Barack Obama was in his first term as president (2011). The last time the Giants made the postseason, they snuck in as a Wild Card in 2016 and were demolished by the Green Bay Packers. Even with a healthy Saquon Barkley and an improved Daniel Jones, this team has too much to overcome in their division and in their conference to make the postseason. They lost six in a row to end 2021 and were 31st in points scored per game last year.
For the first time since 2003, Ben Roethlisberger will not be the starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers. So who is the heir apparent for 2022? Well, there's a competition between Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, and rookie Kenny Pickett. What's the old saying? "If you have three quarterbacks, you actually don't have any." The Steelers may have some of the best individual offensive and defensive players in the league (Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick), but without a competent quarterback, their best hope is to finish third in their own division this season.
Do-everything running back Christian McCaffrey only playing in 10 games over the past two years is certainly a problem, but it won't mean a thing if the Panthers can't get their quarterback situation fixed. Sam Darnold was an abomination last year so Carolina traded for Baker Mayfield and drafted upside in Matt Corral. Perhaps the worst-case scenario is that none of these options stand out in camp and this becomes a quarterback carousel all year long. Even in a weak division and with the Falcons actively tanking, it's going to be difficult for the Panthers to climb out of the depths a secure a playoff spot.
Justin Fields showed some promise towards the end of his rookie season in 2021, but after Darnell Mooney, this may be the most uninspiring group of wide receivers in the team's history. Gone is Allen Robinson and some combination of Byron Pringle, Velus Jones Jr., N'Keal Harry or Equanimeous St. Brown will try to fill those Pro Bowl shoes. But this team also wants to improve their defense after ranking 22nd in the NFL in points allowed per game as well as 125 rushing yards per contest. Big things will be needed from tight end Cole Kmet and running back David Montgomery if this team is going to make a surprise run. But I'm not betting on it.
As things stand at the beginning of August, if I'm betting on one team with longer than +400 odds to make a huge leap into the playoff picture, it's the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell's squad played extremely hard all season and ended up winning three of their last six games. In addition, three of their last five losses were by a margin of four points or less. They made major additions to the wide receiver corps (Jameson Williams in the draft, D.J. Chark in free agency) to complement breakout star Amon-Ra St. Brown. D'Andre Swift is a three-down swiss army knife and T.J. Hockenson is a top-five tight end. The defense should also take a step up with the addition of edge rushers Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal in the first two rounds of the draft. This will be a team where I throw a few dollars as a long-shot bet this year.
In terms of off-the-field issues, there is not much more that could have gone wrong for the Jaguars last season. After their coach Urban Meyer was accused of philandering, missing team activities, and kicking a player, he was unceremoniously fired after 13 games. Unfortunately, all of those distractions contributed to the No. One Overall Pick, Trevor Lawrence, having one of the worst possible seasons for a rookie quarterback. He had a completion per
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