Nfl Betting Spread Week 3
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Nfl Betting Spread Week 3
Posted By Juan Carlos Blanco on September 27, 2020 - Last Updated on September 29, 2020
Matchup Look-ahead line Closing line
In our weekly glance at lookahead lines, there’s always a mention of the risk inherent in going by a number that could be significantly altered by a key injury in a team’s next contest. If there was ever a textbook example of such a scenario, it came in Week 2 with some major injuries to top players. Be sure to keep tabs on which banged up players are in and which players are out as you look at the NFL Week 3 odds below.
The Week 3 landscape will naturally be an evolving one throughout the week as the outcome of many of the aforementioned injuries are sorted out. In Sunday’s early window, the Rams vs. Bills and Texans vs. Steelers matchups hold particular intrigue and feature four relatively healthy teams.
The late window of games includes Tom Brady and his Buccaneers heading into Denver to face what will be a Jeff Driskel -led Broncos team, and the Cowboys will try to carry over their Week 2 momentum in a road battle against the Seahawks. Then, the pair of primetime matchups that close out the week – Packers vs. Saints and Chiefs vs. Ravens showdowns on Sunday night and Monday night, respectively – should naturally both hold an abundance of betting interest.
This intrastate battle features two teams that have shown little quit during the first two weeks. We’re dealing with a couple of clubs with middle-of-the-pack talent that have little room for error when facing talented squads. When playing each other, however, literally anything can happen, leading to a 3-point spread in favor of home-field Jacksonville.
The Dolphins played their Week 2 home opener in front of approximately 11,000 fans against the Bills and had a 20-17 second-half lead after a lightning delay before succumbing to Josh Allen and his career-high 417 yards passing. There were positives for Miami, however, with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for 328 yards and two touchdowns, Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida combining for 83 yards on 14 rushes, and tight end Mike Gesicki exploding for a career-best 130-yard tally and a TD on eight catches.
The Jags, meanwhile, took the division-rival Titans to the limit after entering the fourth quarter 30-17. A Gardner Minshew interception with 51 seconds remaining sealed Jacksonville’s fate, but both the second-year gunslinger (339 yards, three TD) and rookie RB James Robinson (102 rush yards, one TD) continued to make significant strides. That said, the defense did yield four TD passes to Ryan Tannehill .
Both these squads not only sport 2-0 records, but they’ll be two of the few that will come into Week 3 relatively unscathed in terms of key injuries.
Los Angeles followed up its impressive season-opening victory over the Cowboys by going into Philadelphia and toppling a second straight NFC East opponent. Coach Sean McVay ’s squad mostly dominated on both sides of the ball as Jared Goff threw for 267 yards and three touchdowns, while the defense notched a pair of picks off Carson Wentz . The fact RB Malcolm Brown suffered a finger injury was merely a blip on the radar. Last year’s mostly forgotten third-round pick Darrell Henderson averaged 6.8 yards per rush on his way to 81 ground yards, adding 40 through the air.
The Bills likely got more of a fight from the Dolphins than they bargained for in their Week 2 clash. Buffalo found a way to navigate a lightning delay and feisty Miami squad to emerge with a 31-28 road win. Josh Allen ’s career-high 417 passing yards – which notably were compiled without an interception – were certainly a highlight. A big chunk of that success went through the top receiving trio of Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley . The wideouts accounted for 17 of Allen’s 24 completions, 305 of the quarterback’s 417 yards and two of his four TDs.
There appears to be faith that Los Angeles’ strong start is legit. They opened as less than three-point underdogs for a cross-country road game against a tough opponent and had been bet down to two points by Saturday.
The 49ers will experience a bit of déjà vu in this contest, their second straight at MetLife Stadium. Unfortunately, the memories won’t be pleasant. San Fran rolled the Jets as expected in Week 2, but they also lost star DE Nick Bosa to an ACL tear on a turf getting increased scrutiny after three other Niners also suffered lower-leg injuries.
The Giants had one major health development of their own – they lost RB Saquon Barkley for the season with a torn ACL during their Week 2 road loss to the Bears. QB Jimmy Garoppolo and RB Raheem Mostert were two of the other Niners to go down Sunday. Garoppolo’s high ankle sprain and Mostert’s MCL sprain will keep both players out of the game against the Giants. Star TE George Kittle will also miss the game due to a sprained left knee.
The Giants are in deep water themselves without Barkley, although they are hoping newly-signed RB Devonta Freeman can help fill the void. Despite also losing WR Sterling Shepard to turf toe after just 15 snaps against Chicago, Big Blue battled to the very end. QB Daniel Jones will have to shoulder an even bigger load with Barkley and Shepard gone.
The disparity record-wise between the undefeated Titans and 0-2 Vikings is striking. Yet it’s arguable neither squad is as good or bad as their mark. Tennessee had to fight tooth and nail for the second straight game to escape with a win, edging the Jaguars by a 33-30 score. The Vikings frankly looked outclassed on the road by the Colts, dropping a 28-11 decision in which Kirk Cousins threw for just 113 yards and was picked off three times.
Sunday, coach Mike Vrabel had to be pleased to see Tannehill throw four touchdown passes, including two to TE Jonnu Smith . However, it’s worth noting the Titans failed to truly get RB Derrick Henry going again in Week 2. Through two games, Henry is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has yet to get into the end zone.
The Vikings will likely look to get their passing game back on track versus a Titans defense that gave up 339 yards and three passing TDs to Gardner Minshew in Week 2. Minnesota would have been expected to take a step back early this season without Stefon Diggs , but Sunday’s performance was appalling under any circumstance. Among other issues, Cousins has now taken a safety in each of his first two games. He also finished Sunday’s contest against Indy with an abysmal 15.9 rating.
The uncertainty regarding the Vikes is such that they’re installed as home underdogs, even with the Titans set to play without A.J. Brown (hamstring).
After a rousing season-opening upset of the Eagles in Week 1 , Washington came back down to Earth in a 30-15 Week 2 thrashing at the hands of the Cardinals. For their part, the Browns got in the win column for the first time against the Bengals on Thursday night. Their 35-30 win was actually more convincing than the final score would indicate.
Washington hadn’t excelled in any one area during Week 1 against Philly, but they’d made enough plays to pull off a second-half comeback. Their lack of big-play capability worked against them versus Arizona, which ran 73 total plays to WFT’s 60. WR Terry McLaurin ’s 125-yard, one-touchdown effort was certainly a bright spot, while RB Antonio Gibson (13-55-1) saw more work than in the opener and made good use of the opportunity. Washington’s impressive young defensive line once again was disruptive with three sacks and five TFLs overall, but Kyler Murray still amassed 353 total yards and three total TDs.
The story of Cleveland’s aforementioned win over Cincinnati was the star RB duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt . The pair combined for 210 rushing yards and four scores. QB Baker Mayfield had a solid performance, especially compared to his Week 1 effort against the Ravens. The third-year signal-caller tossed a pair of touchdowns – including a memorable one to Odell Beckham – although Mayfield was guilty of another interception.
Both teams are 1-1, but the Browns are currently heavy favorites, a line that could potentially be bet down.
This conference clash features a pair of teams with records that are a bit misleading. The 2-0 Bears have won a pair of squeakers in which they’ve looked anything but smooth for long stretches. Meanwhile, the Falcons needed an all-time collapse in the fourth quarter Sunday against the Cowboys to snatch a 40-39 defeat from the jaws of victory.
The Bears got by a Giants team that lost star RB Saquon Barkley in the first half with what was ultimately deemed a season-ending ACL tear. In a manner of speaking, the win was much more a case of “Chicago running out of time to lose” than a convincing victory as the Bears owned a 17-0 halftime lead and never scored another point while allowing the Barkley-less Giants to get within four by game’s end.
As alluded to, Atlanta will inevitably look back on Sunday’s one-point loss to Dallas as the classic “one that got away.” Armed with a 29-10 lead by halftime, the Falcons were promptly outscored by a 30-10 margin in the second half. The Cowboys needed a highly improbable brain lock on the part of Atlanta’s special teams that allowed a successful onside kick recovery to pull off the miracle, but the point is – coach Dan Quinn ’s squad is 0-2 and has now given up 78 points so far this season.
As of Sunday morning, the Falcons are 2-point favorites despite Julio Jones now being out for the game with a hamstring injury.
This AFC vs. NFC battle has an interesting backdrop. The visiting Bengals are on extra rest after playing in Week 2’s opening game Thursday night. Meanwhile, the Eagles are increasingly desperate at 0-2 and have issues on both sides of the ball.
Joe Burrow and company have been close on the scoreboard in both games thus far. The Bengals’ 35-30 Week 2 loss to the Browns wasn’t really as tight game-flow-wise as the final score implies. However, Cincinnati kept fighting long enough to notch their final touchdown with under a minute remaining. Burrow had his first breakout effort as well, throwing for 316 yards and three touchdowns. Cincy’s defense, though, struggled to stop Cleveland’s lethal two-headed attack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt .
On the Philly side, there’s concern creeping in for a team that’s fallen woefully short of expectations in its first two games. The blown Week 1 lead against the Washington Football Team was bad enough, but the Eagles looked even worse against a higher caliber of opponent in the visiting Rams on Sunday. The biggest problem areas for coach Doug Pederson ’s squad might be Carson Wentz and secondary. The fifth-year QB is averaging a career-low 6.0 yards per attempt and sports an ugly 2:4 TD:INT. Then, Jared Goff found success at will Sunday to the tune of a 74.1% completion rate and three TD passes.
Notably, oddsmakers are still affording the Eagles a fair amount of deference, although the spread has narrowed over the course of the week and Philly will be without rookie Jalen Reagor (thumb) in addition to the still-to-debut Alshon Jeffery (foot).
The 2-0 Steelers appear to still be getting their collective feet under them, yet have been talented enough to notch a pair of season-opening wins against inferior opponents. The Texans have drawn the short straw schedule-wise. They’ve fought valiantly but have unsurprisingly fallen to the Super Bowl champion Chiefs and loaded Ravens in their first pair of contests.
Houston kept it fairly competitive for three quarters Sunday against Baltimore but still suffered a double-digit loss. Offseason trade acquisition David Johnson couldn’t replicate his efficient Week 1 performance and averaged just under 4.0 yards on 13 total touches. However, Deshaun Watson displayed increased chemistry with new passing game weapons Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb – hitting the duo for 10 completions for 154 yards on 14 combined targets.
Pittsburgh arguably had more trouble than expected against a visiting Broncos team that played without RB Phillip Lindsay , lost QB Drew Lock early and WR Courtland Sutton late. The Steelers allowed Lock’s backup Jeff Driskel to keep Denver within range via 256 yards and a pair of TD passes. However, Ben Roethlisberger was able to hit a pair of his emerging receivers in Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool for touchdowns. James Conner also bounced back from his Week 1 ankle issue to notch 106 yards on just 16 carries.
Pittsburgh’s current projected advantage could be one that shrinks thanks to a public that could buy into the Texans being: a) much better than their 0-2 mark; and b) desperate.
The Patriots will have a rest advantage on Las Vegas for this contest. New England conducted their Week 2 business Sunday night against the Seahawks in Seattle and came up short by a 35-30 margin. New England kept it as competitive as the final score implies, scoring its final TD with 2:16 still remaining. Most encouraging from the Pats perspective was Cam Newton ’s 444 total yards (397 passing, 47 rushing) and three total TDs (one passing, two rushing). The fact eight of his completions and 179 of his passing yards went to WR Julian Edelman also speaks volumes to the burgeoning chemistry between the two. Conversely, of concern is the five passing TDs New England allowed to Russell Wilson on a wide variety of routes and depths of target.
New Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is now 0-for-2 in his first pair of NFL contests after a 31-17 road loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday. Looming large for this coming week and beyond is the fact Carolina has lost RB Christian McCaffrey for 4-6 weeks with a high-ankle sprain.
The Chargers, meanwhile, once again gave the Chiefs a very difficult time before dropping a 23-20 decision late in overtime The game unexpectedly marked rookie QB Justin Herbert ’s pro debut after starter Tyrod Taylor suffered chest pains due to an injection he received pregame for a rib injury.
Teddy Bridgewater ’s 636 yards and 72.4% completion rate through two games are outstanding. However, they’ve only led to one touchdown pass thus far. Bridgewater will likely be asked to step up even more in McCaffrey’s absence. The good news is that he’s at least wasted no time in building chemistry with WRs DJ Moore and Robby Anderson – he connected with the duo on a combined 17 occasions for 229 yards in Sunday’s loss.
The Chargers will be turning to Herbert again in this game. All told, the sixth overall pick was a hit with 311 yards, a touchdown and an interception Sunday. The fact the RB duo of Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelly were once again in fine form with 157 combined rushing yards and another 104 through the air implies the pair could thrive against Carolina’s porous run defense.
New York came into Week 2 missing multiple key players and then saw starting WR Breshad Perriman exit a 31-13 loss to the 49ers with an ankle sprain that will cause him to miss Week 3. The Colts were able to atone for a heartbreaking Week 1 loss to the Jaguars with an impressive 28-11 dismantling of the Vikings during which they picked off and sacked Kirk Cousins three times apiece (including a safety) while holding him to 113 yards passing.
Perriman was operating as a speed threat and No. 1 receiver before going down. Fellow wideout Chris Hogan suffered a rib injury against San Fran, while Jamison Crowder missed the contest with a hamstring injury. With RB Le’Veon Bell and rookie WR Denzel Mims both on injured reserve, there’s a chance New York is down to fellow Miami Hurricanes alums – albeit 13 years apart – Frank Gore and Braxton Berrios as the top running back and receiver options in Week 3.
Colts rookie RB Jonathan Taylor ’s first game as the lead back was a success. He finished with 101 rushing yards and a touchdown against Minnesota. Of concern for Indy are the injuries suffered by second-year wideout Parris Campbell and starting safety Malik Hooker . Both players were placed on IR this week.
Still, the state of the Jets is such that Indy opened the week as the biggest favorite of the slate by far.
The Cowboys mounted a furious comeback against the Falcons to escape with a miracle 40-39 win that included a memorable onside kick recovery and a game-winning FG by Greg Zuerlein as time expired. The Seahawks were able to get to 2-0 with a second consecutive offensive explosion to start the season. Seattle’s 35-30 home win over the Patriots on Sunday night featured five touchdown passes from Russell Wilson and 429 total yards.
Once past the euphoria of Sunday’s win, the Cowboys likely came to the sobering conclusion they have legitimate issues. Dallas couldn’t consistently protect QB Dak Prescott very well early Sunday, leading to a lot of their first-half problems. The absence of Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith due to a neck injury played a part. His return for Week 3 would be especially valuable in such a difficult matchup. The defense certainly has some concerns as well after suffering multiple injuries over the first two week and surrendering four TD passes to Matt Ryan in Week 2.
The Seahawks have given up plenty of points in their first two games but have managed to outscore their opponents largely with MVP-caliber play from Wilson. Given Ryan’s success against Dallas’ secondary Sunday – and to a lesser extent, Jared Goff ’s in Week 1 – Wilson is set up for another stellar day, especially if this turns into the back-and-forth high-scoring affair the oddsmakers are clearly expecting with a mid-50s total that’s the highest on the slate at the start of the week.
Two games into 2020, the Lions have already mastered the art of losing by blowing leads both early and late. Following a Week 1 fourth-quarter collapse against the Bears, Detroit got the poor defensive play going earlier in Week 2 against the Pack, getting outscored 39-7 from the second quarter on. Meanwhile, the Cardinals impressively showed no signs of letdown following their Week 1 upset of the 49ers, handling the Redskins as expected, 30-15.
For the first three quarters of their season, the Lions looked like they were dialed in on both sides of the ball despite the absence of WR Kenny Golladay (hamstring). Things then unraveled, with Detroit getting outscored, 63-21, over the next five quarters and managing 14 of those points in the first quarter Week 2. The gross imbalance could certainly be helped by Golladay’s expected Week 3 return, which would be especially timely versus a Cardinals team Detroit will need to score plenty against.
Kyler Murray has been overshadowed by Russell Wilson ’s outstanding start on a league-wide scale, but the Cardinals QB has been brilliant. Murray has completed 66.7% of his throws and is averaging 7.5 yards per carry on 21 rushes. What’s more, he’s notched three rushing touchdowns over the first two games after scoring four in his entire rookie campaign. His connection with new No. 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins has been excellent, while both the defense and RB Kenyan Drake have thrived in the early going as well.
The Buccaneers notched their first win in the Tom Brady era Week 2 with a 31-17 victory over the Panthers that RB Leonard Fournette iced with a 46-yard touchdown. The Broncos battled valiantly on the road against the Steelers despite playing without several key offensive players before turning the ball over on downs with 1:51 remaining and trailing by five.
Brady doesn’t yet look fully comfortable in coach Bruce Arians ’ system, but he’s getting there. The future Hall of Famer’s Week 2 numbers of 217 passing yards and a TD were nothing to write home about, but RB LeSean McCoy also dropped a perfect long pass in the right corner of the end zone that would have his QB’s numbers much better. There are still concerns – Rob Gronkowski incredibly has just two catches on four targets — but Fournette’s emergence Sunday was a welcome sight. Additionally, Monday brought the news WR Chris Godwin has cleared concussion protocol and will play in this Week 3 contest.
The Broncos will move forward with Jeff Driskel at QB for the next several weeks in the wake of Drew Lock ’s Week 2 shoulder injury. Driskel performed admirably enough (256 yards, two TDs) on an emergency basis against the ferocious Steelers defense. However, he’ll have to manage without WR Courtland Sutton moving forward, with Sutton having suffered a torn ACL and MCL in Sunday’s loss.
The uphill battle the Broncos face is evident in their status as home underdogs.
The Packers have gotten an early jump on their NFC North domination. Through two weeks, they’ve dismantled the Vikings and Lions by a combined score of 85-55. Green Bay’s Week 2 victory over coach Matt Patricia ’s squad included a comeback from a 14-3 first-quarter deficit in which the Pack outscored Detroit by a 39-7 margin over the final three quarters.
What has to be as encouraging as anything for head coach Matt LeFleur thus far is that all aspects of his offense have clicked at one point or another in the first two games. In Week 1, QB Aaron Rodgers and the passing game took center stage. Last Sunday, it was RB Aaron Jones popping off for 236 total yards (168 rushing, 68 receiving) and three total TDs.
The Saints will be without star receiver Michael Thomas (ankle) for a second straight week.
In a fitting nod to this game’s heavyweight-fight feel, it’s positioned as the true main event of Week 3 as the final one of the slate. The Ravens know they’ll likely have to go through the Chiefs again in January to get to their desired Super Bowl LV destination , adding even more intrigue to this battle of undefeated squads.
Baltimore has some resistance from the Texans in Week 2 but still won going away, 33-16. The confounding factor for any Ravens opponent is their ability to attack with an endless array of players that starts with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson . The three-headed running attack of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins compiled 176 yards Sunday. WR Marquise Brown hasn’t even gotten going yet, while TE Mark Andrews was quiet Sunday but had two TDs in Week 1.
KC had to fight for nearly five full quarters against surprise starter Justin Herbert and the Chargers before emerging with the win Sunday. QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 302 yards and two scores, but rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10-38) didn’t come close to following up his sensational Week 1 effort.
Oddsmakers are giving Baltimore the home-field nod with a projected 3.5-point advantage. This is naturally expected to be a game of considerable betting interest in coming days, making it a line to keep an eye on.
Here is a look at current NFL Week 3 odds compared to when they opened last week.
Juan Carlos Blanco has served as a freelance writer for a wide variety of online publications and websites, with an intensive focus on fantasy sports. Juan has provided analysis and comprehensive coverage of the MLB, NBA, NFL, CFL, AAF and AFL while also reporting on news and developments in the daily fantasy sports and online gaming industries.
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Week 3 NFL betting guide: Picks against the spread for every game, best totals, and more
Week 3’s NFL betting picks brings plenty of total plays and a spread you must hit
PUBLISHED: September 20, 2019 at 1:12 p.m. | UPDATED: September 21, 2019 at 6:27 a.m.
Sports columnist Dieter Kurtenbach analyzes the amazing and roasts the absurd in the world of sports for the Bay Area News Group.
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The picture is starting to become clearer for some teams around the NFL.
At the same time, we’re getting two teams that are getting 20-plus points this week.
And first-time starters at quarterback. So many first-time starters at quarterback.
I regret to say it, but things are still a hot mess.
Let’s see if we can exploit the market.
This is a quick breakdown: Is Joe Flacco and the Denver Broncos offense going to put up more than 20 points on the road?
And I’m not all that in on the Packers’ offense.
The spread is a hot mess here, but there’s big-time value in that under. I think it’s three or four points too high.
This game has too many contradictions for me to place a bet.
I love the Bills’ defense, but I’m not sure if I can buy in on the offense just yet, as their first two opponents were the Jets and the Giants. Add in no Devin Singletary and I’m not bullish.
And while I want to fade the Bengals hard after the Niners exposed them on both sides of the ball, six points seems like a lot.
Sorry Bills, you’ve made me a bunch of money so far, but…
Two factors to note with the Falcons: Matt Ryan is a terrible road quarterback and the run game has been underwhelming this season.
Pair that with a Colts offense that can move the ball but doesn’t stop the run, and I can’t advise anything on this game. This is NFL parity at its best.
Well, it didn’t take long for the Raiders to get punted by the market.
This line opened at 7.5 and jumped to 9 right quick.
The Vikings want to run the ball on every single down. The one bright spot for the Raiders, I would argue, is run defense.
Do you trust Kirk Cousins to pass the Vikings to a win?
Do you trust Derek Carr to challenge the Vikings defense downfield behind a questionable offensive line (right tackle Trent Brown might not play) and with questionable weapons around him?
So I don’t think there are many points in this game, which makes a nine-point margin look hilarious.
I’m staying away from the handicap — I don’t trust the Raiders — but I’m pounding the under.
Buy into all the Daniel Jones hype you want — hell, he might be an upgrade over Eli Manning — he won’t fix the Giants’ god awful defense.
And seeing as we saw some life from Tampa Bay in their win over the Panthers last Thursday — and all they have to do is stuff the box on first and second down to slow down whatever the Giants pass as offense these days — I have to like the home team here.
I don’t know what Kyle Allen is. He might be an upgrade to the injured Cam Newton, but I’m not putting anything on this game.
Update: Allen grew up in the Phoenix area. That’s cool! Still…
The Chargers somehow lost to the Lions last week, but they’re fine. In fact, they’re being undervalued by the market, and that, in conjunction with the Texans being one of the most overpriced teams in the NFL, creates value.
I think this number would be good to 5 points, so I’m jumping on two freebies.
I was moving towards a total bet — the Chargers’ secondary is poised to give up some big plays — but ultimately, I can’t bet on Deshaun Watson in this one. He’s behind a bad offensive line and runs into sacks — he’ll play directly into the strength of the Chargers’ defense.
I will not be writing up any Dolphins games until they prove they can compete with NFL teams.
Tom Brady was the 199th overall pick.
Jets starting quarterback Luke Falk was the 199th overall pick.
Both were vaulted into their first start in Week 3.
That said, no person in their right might would be this game.
I don’t think the Lions are very good — all the numbers except the final score from last week’s win against the Chargers indicated that they should have been smoked. I’m also not in on Matt Stafford and Matt Patricia on the road — that’s just principles.
But the Eagles are banged up on offense and look lost on defense. This line is inflated given the number of injuries this team has to skill position players.
The Eagles are going to try to run it a ton, but I think the Lions get points in this contest.
Ultimately the Lions make no sense and the Eagles are dramatically overrated.
So take the day game off – there’s no desirable outcome here.
But if you’re a degenerate like me, take the two or three extra points the market is giving Detroit.
This is a strong line, but given the love of Baltimore this season, I do think that there’s value in it.
I like Lamar Jackson as the next guy, and I’m not going to be making some argument about him not being a passer — he can pass, he’s really good at it — but I’m fading the Ravens because they have played two terrible teams and, frankly, in last week’s game against the Cardinals, they weren’t impressive.
Kansas City’s defense is boom-or-bust, and I think they’re pretty smart about how they handle risk. Baltimore is going to have to run against Kansas City to be successful.
You could be out on the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling in this game because they’ll have a backup tackle starting, but Baltimore’s defense is more a theory than an actual intimidating unit. They’re one of the worst defenses in the NFL so far at giving up explosion plays. How is that possible when you play the Dolphins and Ravens?
Never bet against Patrick Mahomes, and buy into a real home-field advantage for the Chiefs.
This game was marked to be even with Ben Roethlisberger in the fold. With him out, it went up to seven points before falling to 6.5.
Forgive me for thinking that Mason Rudolph is just a bit better than that. Seven points? Out of the Big Ben we had seen the last two years? Nah.
Especially when you take into account that Rudolph made the Steelers offense look better when he came in last week against Seattle.
I think the Niners are a better team across the board, but I worry that Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan — who rely so much on YAC — won’t be able to take full advantage of the Steelers’ coverage and scheme issues and will instead hope that they start missing tackles. A big-play, downfield challenging quarterback could feast — that’s not Garoppolo. In fact, challenging downfield is when he gets into trouble.
Add in the fact that they’ll be starting a rookie, sixth-round pick at left tackle and the fact that the Steelers have a solid pass rush — oh yeah, and the lack of a real home-field advantage in Santa Clara — and I’ll take the value the market is giving the Steelers on the handicap.
A tricky, tricky play here. No one knows what you’re going to get with the Saints, who may or may not use two quarterbacks — the underwhelming Teddy Bridgewater and the run-first Taysom Hill — against a Seattle secondary that is questionable at best.
Seattle is going to put points on the board — they’re throwing it more often and letting Russell Wilson do stuff is a great recipe for success.
This is not a body-clock game, as the Saints have stayed on the West Coast all week.
There might be value in these five points, but I wouldn’t bet on Bridgewater — even against these Hawks — and I certainly don’t like quarterback rotations. It’s not worth the risk.
I’m not in on the Browns, but I’m fading the Rams at the same time. What’s a bettor to do?
I don’t think the Rams are going to be able to put a big number on the board in this game — their reputation precedes them, but they have not lived up to it in 10 months. I like Jared Goff, but he had a nearly 1:1 TD to INT ratio on the road last year. All that noise makes it difficult for Sean McVay to baby him.
Add in the question marks on the interior offensive line and the Browns’ defensive strength being on the line, and I think Goff hops on the struggle bus, bringing the entire Rams offense with him.
And any time you can bet against the Browns, do it. Especially when they have a sense of false confidence about them, as a win over the lowly Jets will surely provide. Baker Mayfield might have weapons, but he’s proven to be average so far this year and he’s going to meet Aaron Donald at least twice in this game, and that can’t be good for his health.
I’m not taking the handicap, but — in a pinch — the play is Browns. Toss in a money line bet, too. LA is overvalued, in my estimation.
The play is to go under at 48.5. — the total was at 50.5 but moved down three points.
Sit it out if it stays at 47.5, play the under if it moves back towards 50.
Has Mitch Trubisky been good? Not even close. But let’s acknowledge that he’s played two really good defenses in the Packers and Denver (at home).
I’m not totally down on Washington, but they don’t pressure the passer and they can’t stop the run. If Trubisky is clean in the pocket, he’s going to be able to do at least basic competent things, and you know that the Bears have more than competent weapons.
Washington doesn’t have much talent, but they pass the ball a ton and have been pretty successful at it. On the flip side, the Bears’ defense is still good, but not as good as the first two games would indicate.
I’ll take the Bears on the handicap, but the real play is the total, because of the narratives — specifically against Trubisky and for the Bears defense — that has led the market to drive it down from where it started. I’m going to take that free money, because I don’t think it’s outrageous to think that both teams can get into the 20s.
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