Nfl Betting Against The Spread Week 7

Nfl Betting Against The Spread Week 7

By

Anthony Riccobono
@tony_riccobono

10/19/21 AT 12:30 PM

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All 13 games on the NFL Week 7 schedule feature a betting line of at least three points. It’s the first time in the 2021 season that a pair of teams are favored by more than 15 points on the same day. There are four home underdogs.
Here are picks against the spread for every game in Week 7, as well as updated betting odds. Betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook .
Denver Broncos (+3) at Cleveland Browns
All of their injuries make the Browns prime candidates to be upset Thursday night. Even if Baker Mayfield plays, his shoulder injury could limit his effectiveness. Cleveland’s two star running backs and both starting tackles were hurt Sunday. Denver has an elite run defense. If Teddy Bridgewater can avoid making too many costly mistakes, the Broncos can win outright.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6) at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s slim one-game lead over Cincinnati doesn’t accurately reflect the gap between the AFC North rivals. The Bengals haven’t beaten a team with a winning record. Before defeating the winless Lions, Cincinnati hadn’t scored more than 24 points in regulation. Lamar Jackson is playing as well as any quarterback. The Ravens’ defense has held their last four opponents to 13.8 points per game.
Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants
During Carolina’s three-game losing streak, Sam Darnold has thrown four touchdown passes, six interceptions and completed just 54.7% of his passes. Christian McCaffrey will miss several more games. The Giants should have the better offense if some of their weapons return from injury.
Washington Football Team (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers
Washington hasn’t been very competitive against the best teams on its schedule, while Green Bay is taking care of business against teams it's supposed to beat. Taylor Heinicke is 0-3 against playoff teams with three losses by double digits. During their five-game winning streak, the Packers have won both home games by double digits. Since getting blown out in the season opener, Green Bay has had a top-five defense.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans
For the last year, the Chiefs have made it a habit of failing to cover the spread in wins against good teams. Derrick Henry should pile up a ton of yards against a Kansas City defense that surrenders 5.2 yards per carry. The Titans are eighth in points scored. The Chiefs have given up at least 29 points in all four of their matchups with top-12 scoring offenses.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Falcons have an extra week to prepare for the Dolphins, coming off a bye after their victory in London. Miami is back in action seven days after losing in London to Jacksonville, who snapped its 20-game losing streak. Atlanta is 2-0 against one-win teams. Miami hasn’t won since the season opener.
New York Jets (+7) at New England Patriots
Five weeks ago, the Jets lost at home to the Patriots 25-6. Things won’t be much different on the road. New York has an 11-game losing streak against New England. Since Tom Brady left the Patriots, the Jets have still lost to their AFC East rivals by an average score of 27-16. Mac Jones’s passer rating is 26.7 points higher than that of Zach Wilson.
Detroit Lions (+15.5) at Los Angeles Rams
It’s hard to lay nearly 16 points against a Detroit team that has been competitive against multiple playoff contenders. Before getting blown out by the Bengals, four of the Lions’ five losses came by 10 points or fewer. In Week 15 of last season, the Rams lost outright as 17-point home favorites against the Jets. Detroit is desperate to pick up its first win of 2021.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Las Vegas Raiders
This is a game the Raiders should win if they are serious about making the playoffs. Las Vegas has a top-10 offense and the league’s fewest turnovers. Against teams with winning records, the Eagles are 0-3 and have been outscored 111-73.
Chicago Bears (+13.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Given their injuries in the secondary, Tampa Bay shouldn’t be laying two touchdowns against a .500 team. Justin Fields should have his best game as a pro. Chicago beat Tampa Bay straight up a year ago. Expect a game similar to Week 6, when the Bucs let the Eagles hang around and beat Philadelphia, 28-22.
Houston Texans (+17) at Arizona Cardinals
Maybe Arizona will overlook Houston and the Texans can avoid being blown out for the first three quarters. Both of the Cardinals’ wins over sub.-.500 teams have come by fewer than 13 points. This is a difficult game to bet, either way.
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Why is San Francisco favored by more than a field goal? Both teams have two wins, and Indianapolis has only lost to playoff teams. The Colts are a fourth-quarter meltdown away from being on a three-game winning streak. Neither Jimmy Garoppolo nor Trey Lance has been better than Carson Wentz.
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Seattle Seahawks
This is a bad matchup for Seattle with Geno Smith at quarterback. The Saints allow the fewest yards per carry in the NFL. Jameis Winston is prone to turning the ball over, but the Seahawks only have two interceptions. Seattle hasn’t had a home-field advantage, losing both games at Lumen Field.
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Week 6 was the first NFL week with byes during the 2021 season and also a rather good week of picks and predictions both against the spread and straight up. That doesn't mean much unless it's followed up by a strong Week 7.
With the number of bye teams going up to six — the Bills, Cowboys, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers and Jaguars — it's a smaller slate of only 13 games. That lighter schedule still features three massive double-digit favorites, balanced by four games where the spread is set at four or fewer points.
So this week, it's mostly either navigating a lopsided matchup or figuring out who's a slightly better bet in a close one. Here's our latest shot at picking against the numbers, from another thirsty Thursday to another manic Monday:
The Bengals' offense is clicking everywhere around Joe Burrow. The Ravens also can move the ball in more ways with Lamar Jackson. Last week, there was no worthy Jackson duel against the Chargers, but that comes vs. another second-year first-round QB counterpart. The Bengals won't mind throwing often on Baltimore's D and Cincinnati cannot slow down the Ravens' best downfield targets. This game comes down to a key drive in the fourth quarter with Jackson coming through at home.
Pick: Ravens win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
The Browns have become an injury mess, from quarterback, running back, offensive line, wide receiver to defense. After being forced to deviate from their rushing offense and complementary pass defense ways, they can get back on track vs. a Denver D that's starting to struggle in many areas under Vic Fangio. The Broncos will hang around with more steady play by Teddy Bridgewater, but in the end backup Case Keenum, a former Broncos starter, delivers a much-needed gritty win to push Cleveland back above .500 at home.
Pick: Browns win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Result: Browns win 17-14 but fail to cover the spread.
Matthew Stafford's revenge game will look like a lot of revenge games, except the sacrificial lambs are the visiting Lions. Detroit hit a wall against Cincinnati at home last week, simply breaking down from winless frustration after several previous close games. The Rams are relentless in smashing bad teams, something they proved against the Giants. They will treat Honolulu Blue like Big Blue, with their defense prepared to keep things rough on former QB Jared Goff.
Pick: Rams win 38-14 and cover the spread.
The Eagles came through as our Week 5 upset special. The Raiders did the same in Week 6. So it's only natural to involve both of the teams here in this space this week. You can bet Philly fans will storm Las Vegas and make it feel like a home game for Jalen Hurts. The Raiders will continue to play liberated, inspiring ball without Jon Gruden, but the Eagles' defensive looks won't help Derek Carr, who will face plenty of interior pressure. The Raiders will struggle with Hurts' mobility and his diverse weapons in the ideal pass-happy attack against them.
The Panthers can make things look bleaker in New York for their former GM, Dave Gettleman, by showing that former Giants assistant Matt Rhule can also outcoach the overmatched Joe Judge. Daniel Jones with a shaky offensive line, no Saquon Barkley and limited healthy wide receivers is a bad combination against an aggressive Carolina pass-rushing defense that goes hard after turnovers. Sam Darnold won't provide much pretty on the other side, but the Giants are shorter on playmakers beyond former Panthers cornerback James Bradberry.
Pick: Panthers win 20-16 and cover the spread.
WFT hung around with the Chiefs early thanks to a couple fluky takeaways, but the Chiefs still pulled away in a second-half laugher. The Packers have been rolling since their annual meltdown game in Week 1 and there's nothing to suggest Washington's underachieving defense will slow down anything Aaron Rodgers wants to do. Taylor Heinicke is now in over his head and won't do nearly enough in catchup mode.
Pick: Packers win 34-17 and cover the spread.
The Chiefs' offense cleaned up those big mistakes and went big play all over Washington in the second half of last week's game, with Patrick Mahomes finding perfect harmony between Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman and the running game. The Titans are coming off having their hands full against the Bills on a short week but they can have much more success running with Derrick Henry this week, therefore opening up the passing game well for Ryan Tannehill. Mahomes outduels Tannehill, but the latter plays well enough to tighten up the margin by the end.
Pick: Chiefs win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
The Falcons went to London and won in Week 5. The Dolphins went to London and lost in Week 6, and didn't even get a bye. Look for Atlanta to have figured out more offensively under Matt Ryan coming out of needed early rest and taking it to a Dolphins' defense in which the weaknesses far outweigh the strengths for Brian Flores. Miami has more short-to-intermediate passing success with Tua Tagovailoa to Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki, but Ryan has better answers with Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts.
Pick: Falcons win 23-20 and cover the spread.
The Jets lost to the Patriots at home 25-9 in Week 2 so their goal will be looking more respectable on the road after a post-London Week 6 bye. The Patriots had another tough home loss vs. the Cowboys after a similar walk-off result against the Buccaneers in Week 4. It's shocking to see that 0-4 record for New England in Foxborough after only six weeks. The Patriots regroup well defensively and Mac Jones shows more confidence opposite Zach Wilson.
Pick: Patriots win 20-10 and cover the spread.
Do you think this game means something to J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins? Without their former leader Deshaun Watson suiting up for the Texans, here's their lone chance to beat the Lone Star team they probably expected to never leave in their careers. Watt will lead the charge in wreaking havoc on rookie QB Davis Mills while Hopkins helps dazzling counterpart Kyler Murray have another huge game. There's no reason to believe Houston can cause any problems for Arizona's offense, or that Arizona's defense won't end up teeing off in the second half.
Pick: Cardinals win 38-14 and cover the spread.
You can bet Tom Brady remembers thjat one of the worst losses of his first Bucs' season came at the Bears. He will make amends for that mistake-filled defeat by ripping through an overrated Chicago defense at home with help from his many receivers and running back Leonard Fournette. Justin Fields won't get help from the running game last week and isn't passing nearly effectively enough to exploit the Bucs' secondary vulnerability.
Pick: Buccaneers win 34-17 and cover the spread.
The Colts are looking good offensively Carson Wentz expanded his weaponry to play off Jonathan Taylor and the revived chunk running game. But the 49ers have proved to be a tough team coming off a bye under Kyle Shanahan. They will push better offensive buttons and play more sound defense with a few more injury issues resolved, regardless of who's starting at quarterback.
Pick: 49ers win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
The Saints march in as cross-country road favorites following their bye as the Seahawks didn't inspire much in Pittsburgh without Russell Wilson. New Orleans will keep things simple and grounded here with Alvin Kamara to attack Seattle's porous run defense. Jameis Winston will be in position to protect the ball in a hostile environment while Smith will be thwarted by an active pass defense late.
Pick: Saints win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.

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Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State (Wed.)
Louisiana at Arkansas State (Thurs.)
Colorado State at Utah State (Fri.)
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
Indianapolis at San Francisco (SNF)
New England at Los Angeles Chargers
New York Giants at Kansas City (MNF)
New England at Los Angeles Chargers
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Nfl Betting Against The Spread Week 7

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