Nfl Betting Against The Spread Week 7
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Nfl Betting Against The Spread Week 7
Oct 25, 2020, 06:00am EDT | 13 684 views
Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers will lead his team against the Tennessee Titans in ... [+] matchup of undefeated teams in Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season.
Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season is shaping up to be an exciting one. It began on Thursday with a thrilling contest between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants that was decided in the final minute of play and continues Sunday with an action-packed schedule that includes 12 contests taking place throughout the afternoon and evening.
It all begins at 1 p.m. ET with a salvo of seven kickoffs highlighted by a key AFC showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans, two of just three total unbeaten teams left in the league at this juncture. Week 7’s late afternoon timeslot has four matchups taking place within it, a pair of which—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders and San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots—will see big-name potential playoff contenders going head-to-head.
Week 7 concludes with a pair of intriguing primetime contests, starting on Sunday Night Football with the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Seattle Seahawks in a game that will likely play a major role in determining this year’s NFC West champion, followed by the Chicago Bears visiting the Los Angeles Rams for a Monday Night Football clash between squads that possess some of the 2020 NFL season’s best records. The Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings are all on bye although the ‘Phins have been in the news leading up to Week 7 for the organization’s decision to bench starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for rookie signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa despite the team winning back-to-back games and getting to .500 heading into the break.
With so many evenly matched teams meeting today, it can be tough for fans and bettors alike to predict winners. Whether you are in a picks pool or looking to bet games against the spread, it is always wise to consult with an expert before making a decision. Fortunately, Jon Price and his team at SportsInformationTraders.com have been digging through the data and unearthed some of the top value plays on the board for readers to enjoy. You can find Price’s picks for some of the most notable matchups on the schedule below. You can also check out all the kickoff start times, TV channels, updated odds and more for every Week 7 game during the 2020 NFL season.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
Trends : The Cowboys have won outright won seven and covered in six of their last eight games against Washington. Despite having won and covered in three consecutive matchups with this opponent, Dallas is a one-point road underdog on Sunday in this NFC East rivalry game. The total for the contest is set at 45 points, which could end up being eclipsed if history is any indication with eight of the last nine matchups between these programs going over.
Trends : The Bills and Jets have traded wins and covers back and forth evenly across their last eight showdowns. No team has managed to string together consecutive victories either straight-up or against the number since New York swept Buffalo during the 2016 campaign. Buffalo picked up a SU and ATS “W” earlier this year in a 27-17 drubbing of the Jets earlier this year at home and is an even bigger favorite on the road in Week 7. The Bills were 6.5-point chalk for the last contest and are now laying 10 for Sunday’s game. It’s hardly a surprise given how historically poor Gang Green has been performing over the first two months of the campaign and they now stand alone as as the only team in the NFL that has yet to win or cover in a single game during the 2020 NFL season. They won’t be turning that around today so go with the Bills to dominate an easy AFC East divisional matchup.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Trends : The Saints are 6-1 SU over their last seven meetings with the Panthers, but only 3-4 ATS in that span. New Orleans swept the regular season series last year, including a breezy 42-10 cover as 13.5-point road chalk back in December. Carolina is once again a big underdog in the first meeting of these NFC South rivals during the 2020 NFL season, getting seven points at the Superdome in Week 7. The Panthers have fared well here as ‘dogs against the spread, covering in each of their last trips to the Big Easy and even outright won on the road as an eight-point underdog in 2018.
Adam Schefter reported that the Saints will be missing their top two receivers for this matchup:
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
Trends : Green Bay and Houston have only met four times since the Texans came into the league, with the Packers owning a 3-1 SU edge and splitting the games 2-2 ATS. Green Bay is tied for the best cover percentage in the league at 80% (4-1 ATS) and are one of just six teams with one SU loss or fewer on their record at this point in the 2020 NFL season, but they are still only favored by 3.5 points against the 1-5 SU and ATS Texans in Week 7. The Packers lost and failed to cover for the first time this year last week when they were dismantled by the Buccaneers, 38-10, in a game most of the country witnessed in the late afternoon timeslot. Houston dropped another game last week after finally breaking through for its first win of the campaign for interim head coach Romeo Crennel’s Week 5 debut, but kept the score respectably close in a 42-36 defeat at the hands of the undefeated division rival Titans.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Trends : The Bengals are 8-4 and 10-2 ATS over their last 12 clashes with the Browns. These AFC North rivals duked it out in a fun primetime showdown back in September, a contest that Cleveland ultimately won 35-30 behind a 124-yard, two-touchdown performance from running back Nick Chubb. The Browns have since placed their star rusher on IR with a knee injury he suffered on October 4 th and isn’t likely to get him back in the lineup until mid-November. The team struggled without him last week against the Steelers, losing for the first time since the season-opener. Cleveland is still favored to sweep Cincinnati this year, laying 3.5 points on the road to an opponent that has only won once so far in 2020. Still, the Bengals have been strong against the spread, covering in four of their last five contests and could hang tough today.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
Trends : Both the Steelers and Titans are undefeated straight-up during the 2020 NFL season, but Tennessee is just 2-4 ATS while Pittsburgh is 4-1 against the number. These teams outright split their last four heads-up contests dating back to the 2012 season, but the Titans have an edge in the ATS department with a 3-1 record. These matchups have trended towards toward big scoring totals as well, with four of their last five landing over the total. Oddsmakers are expecting another high-scoring affair on Sunday, setting the total on the game at 50.5 points, one of the largest on the board in Week 7.
Trends : The Falcons are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS over their last five bouts with the Lions. These teams last met on the field during the 2017 campaign, with Atlanta winning 30-26 on the road as a four-point favorite. The Falcons are just a slight home favorite for this Week 7 game, which hasn’t been a good omen for the club during the 2020 NFL season. Atlanta has been favored three prior times this year, losing and failing to cover in each of them. Detroit has not been great as an underdog either—going 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS—but did outright win and cover despite getting 4.5 points against a good Cardinals team in Week 3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders
Trends : The total has gone over in each of the last six matchups involving the Buccaneers and Raiders. These teams have not met often, however, clashing just four times since squaring off in Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2003. One of the main draws for this game is that it will feature Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden going up against his former team, the one he led to the aforementioned championship—won over the then-Oakland Raiders, the organization that traded him to Tampa in 2002—for the first time since returning to the Raiders sideline in 2018. Oddsmakers are expecting it to end up as a barn burner, placing an over/under of 52 points on the contest. Given these are two of the highest-scoring teams of the 2020 NFL season—averaging a combined 59.7 points per game—it very well may see more points scored than any other matchup in Week 7.
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots
Trends : The Patriots are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS across their last five clashes with the 49ers. This is a rare meeting between two of the league’s storied franchises—albeit in different eras—with those five games being spread out over the last 22 seasons. Much has changed since San Francisco and New England last took the field against one another in 2016, with previous Patriots QB and future Hall of Famer Tom Brady now in Tampa after 20 seasons in New England and his former understudy, Jimmy Garoppolo, now serving as the Niner’s starting signal-caller after the organization traded for him in 2017. The Pats have turned over their offense to Cam Newton, the former league MVP who signed with the team following nine seasons in Carolina. Neither club has quite performed up to expectations in 2020, but both could turn things around with a pivotal victory in Week 7.
Field Yates highlighted the outcome of the numerous draft picks that were involved in Jimmy G trade three years ago:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Trends : The Chargers are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS over their last eight matchups with the Jaguars dating back to 2010, with six of those contests landing over the total. These franchises have met relatively often for teams in different divisions over the last decade, but the games have trended towards a similar outcome each time. The most recent game, which took place in December of last season, was no different, as the Bolts obliterated the Jags by a 45-10 margin on the road. The series now shifts to Los Angeles, where the Chargers will host Jacksonville at SoFi Stadium—their new digs that opened for the start of the 2020 NFL season—for the first time, with another big Bolts win projected by the books.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Trends : The Chiefs have absolutely dominated this AFC West rivalry over the last half-decade, winning every single game in the series since the start of the 2015 campaign and covering in all but one. While they have not met yet during the 2020 NFL season, Kansas City blew out Denver in both 2019 matchups by an eye-popping a 53-9 margin. Shops are not projecting the Broncos to get off the schneid in Week 7, installing them as 7.5-point underdogs. One interesting wrinkle is that this game could feature snow at the Mile High, with forecasts calling for a 60% chance of 1-5 inches and accumulation of up to a foot in the area with temperatures hovering near 20 degrees.
The Chiefs won’t be phased by the powder though, with superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes claiming he’s excited about the possibility and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo pointing out there was incliminate weather in this matchup last year and that it won’t alter the team’s plans (via USAToday.com ):
“I know that we did play a snow game last year. It was against these guys, it was at home. The elements are what they are, everybody’s got to deal with it. Coach [Andy] Reid addressed it this morning, and we just roll. You can’t let anything take you off course from what you’re trying to do. The only thing I can think of when you ask that question is, I just go back to what’s the field conditions and let’s be smart with footwear and all that. Guys, DBs, keep your feet underneath you, the little things like that. But other than that, I don’t think the game plan changes.”
If the snow forces teams to rely on the rush to move the chains, the Chiefs have a clear advantage in that department. Not only do they have blossoming rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire—who has already rushed for 505 yards and a touchdown on just 107 totes and caught 21 balls for an additional 177 yards and another score since being selected at the end of the first round of April’s draft—but are also expected to debut veteran back Le’Veon Bell, who the organization signed in wake of his release from the Jets in mid-October. While Bell is still learning the offense after being signed just 10 days ago, head coach Andy Reid confirmed that the three-time Pro Bowler should see his first snaps in a Chiefs uniform on Sunday. Bell joins an elite crew of talented weapons on the Kansas City roster that are all capable of ripping off a big play at any time and it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Broncos will be capable of shutting down this offense, which averages the third-most yards per game (417) in the league during the 2020 NFL season. Even with poor conditions on the horizon, the Chiefs should have no problems moving to 6-1 and handily cover the 7.5-point spread for their fifth cover of the campaign.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Trend : Arizona is 3-4 SU but 5-1-1 ATS over its previous seven games against Seattle. The Cardinals have made a habit out of keeping their NFC West rivalry with the Seahawks competitive over the last few years, but their defense will have its work cut out against the 2020 version of Seattle’s offense. The Seahawks currently lead the NFL in scoring with a whopping 33.8 PPG average, the main reason they are topping in the league in both SU (100%) and ATS (80%) cover percentage this year.
Seven-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson has surprisingly upped his game to another level in his ninth campaign as a pro, finding himself squarely in the MVP discussion after connecting on 123-of-169 passes for 1,502 yards and 19 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He’s always been a threat to take off and run, and that’s no different this season, with the QB racking up 153 yards on 23 attempts. Wilson has needed to lift the Seahawks during a year in which they have an uncharacteristically suspect defense, a unit that has allowed a league-worst 471.2 yards per game.
Wilson’s counterpart on the Cardinals—second-year sensation Kyler Murray—has also improved significantly in 2020, guiding his club to a 4-2 record while connecting on 135 of his 205 pass attempts for 1,487 yards and 10 touchdowns. The No. 1 overall pick last year has been a devastating runner as well, amassing 370 yards and six touchdowns on the ground, the latter tying for the second most rushing scores in the NFL. If both signal-callers are on their games, this one will likely come down to whichever defense can step up and force a critical turnover or get a key stop late in Week 7’s Sunday Night Football game.
Trends : The Bears have won six of their last eight games against the Rams. Chicago has also been the more reliable squad against the spread when these foes meet, covering in seven of the last 10 contests. Although they’ve been the stronger head-to-head side and boast a better SU (5-1) and ATS (4-2) record than LA (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) in 2020, the Rams will still be a big favorite on Monday Night Football .
This will be the third straight year that these organizations will be meeting and fans in Los Angeles will be hoping that quarterback Jared Goff finally has a decent outing versus the Bears. The first overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft has yet to record a touchdown and has mightily struggled in two outings against this opponent. Although the Rams did win last year, Goff went just 11-of-18 for 173 yards and an interception, bringing his career splits against Chicago to 31-of-62 for 353 yards and five interceptions. The Bears didn’t get great QB play from Mitch Trubisky in those games either, but the signal-caller did at least find pay dirt twice while going 40-of-73 for 300 yards and four interceptions.
Trubisky won’t be getting a chance to improve those figures in this primetime affair after he was benched in Week 3 due to a sputtering offense that hasn’t exactly improved with Nick Foles under center. Foles isn’t putting up numbers that jump off the page and hasn’t sparked the offense the way head coach Matt Nagy may have hoped when he handed over the keys to the former Super Bowl MVP, but the Bears have managed to keep on winning thanks to a quality defense that ranks No. 7 in the NFL in total (337.2 YPG) and scoring defense (19.3 PPG). LA’s defense is even more powerful on paper, which is why the opponent represent one of Chicago’s toughest tests of the campaign. Not only do the Rams come in at No. 4 in total (318.5 YPG) and No. 5 in scoring defense (19 PPG), but they also trot out an offense that averages more than 75 yards and scores four more points per game on average. Unless the Bears can find a way to generate a decent amount of offensive production while hampering Goff into another poor outing, they’ll be hard-pressed to leave Los Angeles with a “W” or even cover this sizable spread.
I've been working in the realm of sports my entire career, starting as a breaking news writer right out of Arizona State University. After three years of writing, I
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The Chiefs are still favorites. The Seahawks and Packers are on the list. How many other teams are realistic…
Power Rankings and picks, with Chiefs, 49ers, Jaguars best bets
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W E’RE GETTING REALLY CLOSE TO A VERY WEIRD SPOT IN THE SPORTS CALENDAR. The World Series has our attention after an all-time classic in Game 4, but baseball will name its champion in a few days and suddenly we’ll be done with everything but football until at least Christmas. Normally we’d be wrapping up baseball anyway but NBA, college hoops, and hockey would be just starting up. Basically, the point is we really need you, football. Can you stop with all the COVID positives? We need football.
NFL Week 7 brings us the Game of the Year thus far with the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans squaring off in a super intriguing matchup. This week I wrote about the eight NFL teams that still feel like they can win this year’s Super Bowl , and these are certainly two of them. This matchup has huge seeding implications and should be a great one.
It’s a pretty good slate of games overall. Let’s run through a quick Week 7 Power Rankings and then get right to the picks…
32. New York Jets 0–6 ( Previous rank : 32)
31. Washington Football Team 1–5 (31) 30. New York Giants 1–5 (30) 29. Jacksonville Jaguars 1–5 (27) 28. Cincinnati Bengals 1–4–1 (28)
27. Denver Broncos 2–3 (29) 26. Minnesota Vikings 1–5 (17) 25. Atlanta Falcons 1–5 (26) 24. Detroit Lions 2–3 (25)
23. Dallas Cowboys 2–4 (21) 22. Los Angeles Chargers 1–4 (20) 21. Philadelphia Eagles 1–4–1 (23) 20. Houston Texans 1–5 (22)
19. Miami Dolphins 3–3 (24) 18. Carolina Panthers 3–3 (18) 17. Arizona Cardinals 4–2 (16)
16. New England Patriots 2–3 (9) 15. Chicago Bears 5–1 (15) 14. Las Vegas Raiders 3–2 (14) 13. Indianapolis Colts 4–2 (11)
12. Cleveland Browns 4–2 (8) 11. Buffalo Bills 4–2 (12) 10. San Francisco 49ers 3–3 (19) 9. Los Angeles Rams 4–2 (7)
8. New Orleans Saints 3–2 (13) 7. Green Bay Packers 4–1 (3) 6. Baltimore Ravens 5–1 (5)
5. Tennessee Titans 5–0 (6) 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4–2 (10) 3. Seattle Seahawks 5–0 (2) 2. Pittsburgh Steelers 5–0 (4) 1. Kansas City Chiefs 5–1 (1)
Thursday was exactly what I expected. The Eagles were getting too much credit but they were also the better team and proved it in an uglier-than-even-I-expected battle , turning eight redzone trips into a one-point win.
This might be the stay away game of the year as unpredictable as these teams are. No lead will be safe. The difference here is the defenses, which are opposite of one another. Detroit can stop the pass but not the run. Atlanta can stop the run but not the pass. Both offenses can pass. You do the math.
The Jaguars might be every bit as bad as we expected, certainly on defense. I just don’t trust these Chargers as more than a TD favorite against anyone, especially with so many injuries on the line and around their defense.
On Monday afternoon, Dallas was a 3-point favorite and I wrote for Action Network picking them early in the week, expecting them to be favored by a whole touchdown by Sunday. Then they got embarrassed by the Cards and now I’m not even picking Dallas. The Cowboys are missing four of five O-linemen, and Washington’s defensive front seven is the best unit in the game. Washington’s defense might be the only good side in the division.
Maybe the Saints figured things out during the bye, but this has really been a mostly average team that barely got by the Lions and Chargers the last time we saw them. The Panthers are average too, a little more so. So far this year, these teams have been far more even than we’d all have possibly imagined.
I was all set to take the Jets in this one. The Bills are coming off two short weeks and it’s an obvious trap game with a huge Pats game up next. But the one thing the Jets are especially horrendous at is pass defense, and that’s the one thing the Bills definitely do well. I just feel like even if the game hangs close for awhile, Buffalo can blow it open on any play.
It looks like snow in Denver, and maybe that’s why this line has dropped from double digits down to one score. Denver’s defense is really good, enough to slow Mahomes down, but I just don’t see the offense keeping up. Last year the Chiefs won these two matchups 53–9 combined. This is a prime teaser spot.
Not expecting much scoring in this one. I do think the Rams will be able to run the ball but fear for Goff against this pass rush, especially as well as Chicago takes away the underneath and screen stuff. Can’t say I love Foles’s chances against Aaron Donald et al either. Feels like a weird, close, low scoring game that one team will win with a couple right bounces… which is exactly how the Bears like it.
The Titans losing their best O-lineman (Taylor Lewan) right before facing the league’s best pass rush seems extremely sub-optimal. The Steelers should be able to limit Derrick Henry and make Ryan Tannehill beat them but uh… he’s been doing a lot of that . There’s a world where Pittsburgh’s defense dominates this game. But there’s another one where Tannehill beats them deep with a couple double-move play-action bombs and turns this into a surprising shootout. It’s a really intriguing matchup but the Titans defense is the one below average unit and I just like Pittsburgh better.
This is a nerd’s dream with Bill Belichick versus Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are the more talented team but still besought by injuries, especially on defense. I trust Belichick after a loss, and I definitely trust him to do something to really break down and scramble Jimmy Garoppolo all up too.
The Seahawks are 5–0 with four one-score wins, all five against teams that probably won’t make the playoffs. Russell Wilson has been the clear MVP so far, but he’s had to be to cover up a surprisingly leaky defense and an inept rushing attack. Seattle struggles with running QBs and Kyler Murray has been the best runner in the NFL this season. I don’t love Arizona on a short week against Seattle coming off a bye, but I really think the Cards can hang here.
The Browns dominated the Bengals statistically a month ago, especially in the trenches. Myles Garrett is going to batter the Cincy line, and Cleveland should run with ease all game. The Browns are bad against great teams, but that doesn’t matter against Cincinnati. I went more in-depth at Action Network .
The Raiders do exactly one thing well, and that’s pass the ball. Tampa has the league’s best pass defense so far, and Vegas is missing its best offensive lineman against the best D in the league and just came off a very weird week. I fear the Bucs could run away with this one.
I couldn’t make my mind up on this one all week and somehow ended up with it as a best bet. Green Bay was favored by this same number against Tampa, and Houston is wayyyy worse than the Bucs. The Texans have no defense, and the Rodgers is great coming off a loss. Serious shootout potential here with all the Packers’ defensive injuries to an already weak unit. Take the over. ■
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