Nfl Betting Against The Spread Week 3

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Kyler Murray - Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP
We’ve got you covered for week 3 in NFL betting, serving up in-depth analyses and NFL ATS picks for choice matchups, as well quick-fire NFL point spread picks for the rest of the week’s slate.
Bookmakers went to press with 13 of 16 games featuring a home chalk, marking the most skewed week of the first three weeks of the 2020 NFL season towards home teams. It comes after home teams went 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS versus road teams in week 2. Overall, home teams are 24-8 SU and 17-15 ATS after the first two weeks of the season.
Since betting opened for week 3 NFL matchups, the Colts emerge as the biggest movers on the NFL odds board, jumping out from -6 to -10.5 with most top-rated betting sites. BookMaker, Bodog and Youwager have gone as high as Colts -11. Other big movers on the NFL odds board include the Cardinals (-3.5 to -6), Browns (-4 to -7) and Seahawks (-3 to -5).
The biggest road faves in week 3 are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are laying -6 to Denver Broncos. San Francisco 49ers are also favoured on the road against the NY Giants, but injuries forced the Niners to shrinks from -6.5 to -3.5, a price available with BookMaker. The Tennessee Titans round out the triplet of early road favourites, and they’re up from an opening -1 to -2.5 against the Minnesota Vikings.
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 4:25 PM EST – State Farm Stadium, Glendale
Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5 (-110) with BookMaker
Going into the 2020 NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals were tipped as the dark horse of the NFC West, if not the entire NFC. It’s early days, the season is only two weeks old, but the Cardinals are making good on all the hype as they sit pretty, alongside the Seahawks and Rams at the top of the division’s standings with a 2-0-0 SU mark.
Second-year quarterback Kyler Murray and newly-acquired DeAndre Hopkins have taken no time to gel, and the Cardinals offense is lighting it up. Their chemistry was on full display in week 1 as they upset the San Francisco 49ers 24-20 to come through as the +7 closing underdogs. They backed-up the win with a 30-15 rout of the Washington team at State Farm, coming through as the -7.5 home chalk very convincingly.
Matthew Stafford is back after missing half of last season with a back injury, but things aren’t clicking on offense as many anticipated it would ahead of the 2020 NFL season. Both offense and defense are struggling and the result is an 11-game skid that dates back to week 9 of 2019, when the Lions lost to the Raiders 31-24. How long Matt Patricia will keep his job is up in the air, but it can’t be for too long if things continue on this poor vein of form.
This isn’t a great matchup for the Lions, as evinced last year when Kyler Murray and the Cards took it to Detroit and settled on a tie. This year, the Cardinals are even better and they have more weapons on offense and depth on defense – the latter of which sees rookie Isaiah Simmons living up to his potential. The Cardinals should win and cover in convincing fashion.
The Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 4:25 PM EST – CenturyLink Field, Seattle
Opening Line: Seahawks -3 (-116) with BookMaker
The Dallas Cowboys pulled off a historic, come-from-behind win in week 2 at the expense of the Atlanta Falcons, sending Dak Prescott, the entire Cowboys team and staff, along with owner Jerry Jones, into euphoric celebrations.
It was a sight to behold. However, before everyone goes gaga over America’s favourite team, in the sobering light of day, the Cowboys remain a highly-flawed and wildly unpredictable team that has a long way to go before they can strike a convincing pose – at least, in the opinion of yours truly.
Had Julio Jones not bungled a catch or had any one of the Falcons caught the now infamous “watermelon” onside-kick instead of watching it spinning in paralysed fascination, the Falcons would have clinched the win and the Cowboys would have been dealing with an existential crisis, down 0-2 SU in 2020. As it is, they’re 1-1 SU and riding the momentum of a pivotal win at home in week 2.
The Seattle Seahawks are a different kettle of fish entirely. In fact, Russell Wilson shredded the Falcons at the Mercedes-Benz stadium in week 1, lifting the Seahawks to a convincing victory that belied the close 38-25 score.
Given the way the Seahawks took down the Falcons and then the Patriots last week, one has to fancy their chances against the hyped up Cowboys, who aren’t quite playing up to the sum total of their parts.
Wilson leads the NFL with 9 TDs, and he’s averaging 305 passing yards per game. Wilson was otherworldly against the Patriots in Sunday Night Football, lifting the Seahawks to the 35-30 win with some of the most sublime deep throws of the week.
The Dallas defense, which has allowed the 9th most passing yards, is sure to have a field day trying to contain Wilson and the Seahawks offense.
Granted the Seahawks defense is leaking its fair share of points as well, but one has to give some of the credit to the opposing quarterbacks. The Seahawks did face two elite quarterbacks in Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, only two quarterbacks that have made Super Bowl appearances in the last five years.
Separately, Jamal Adams is settling into Pete Carroll’s scheme nicely, flying around the field and harassing offenses. He was all over Cam Newton, after which he couldn’t contain himself after beating the Patriots for the first time in his career.
So far, the Seahawks have looked formidable and have made an early case for Super Bowl contention. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have looked so-so and haven’t made a case for the NFC East title, let alone SBLV. Thus, it would be surprising if the Cowboys got the better of the Seahawks at CenturyLink field on Sunday, meaning the best bet in this game has to be the Seahawks to both win and cover.
Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 8:20 PM EST – Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Opening Line: Saints -4.5 (-110) with BookMaker
It’s not often one sees the Green Bay Packers catching points, not especially when Aaron Rodgers is playing up to the lofty standards of his heyday and the Packers are riding the momentum of a 2-0-0 SU start on the season. As a rule, when a quality quarterback is catching points on the NFL odds board, it would be impolite not to lap them up.
The case to grab the points with the Packers becomes even stronger following MNF; watching the Raiders practically dismantle the Saints offense in a 34-24 win at Allegiant Stadium was bizarre, to say the least. The manner in which Drew Brees and the O-line were rendered a moot point, the way in which the defense succumbed to penalties and chaotic play raises questions about the Saints across the board.
Of course, it’s just one game, too soon to hit the panic button on the Saints. Every once in a while a trap game emerges or a bad day in the office comes around. Nevertheless, it does give pause for concern ahead of a blockbuster week 3 that is sure to shakeup the standings in the league, not least the NFC South where the Bucs will look to capitalise at the expense of the Saints.
The Packers are brimming with confidence and go into this week 3 match with momentum. The Packers were without Devante Adams in week 2 but Aaron Jones is rising to the occasion and leads the league with 234 rushing yards on an ridiculous 6.9 YPC clip, underscored by 3 rushing touchdowns and another one through the air. Rodgers has 6TDs to his credit through two games with zero interceptions and just 1 sack.
Everyone knows the draft saga involving Jordan Love by now, and it’s evident that the Rodgers has something to prove. If t here’s been one criticism about the Packers’ offense its their limited weapons and depth – which was something Rodgers had hoped Matt LaFleur and the powers-that-be in Green Bay would address in the draft, but alas not. That minor disappointment hasn’t deterred Rodgers as it seems it doesn’t matter who is catching his passes, they’re up for it. Heck, he’d even make the water boy into a superstar the way he’s playing. In short, how could one not shade the Packers as the road underdogs in this game for NFL picks?
Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP
Monday, September 28, 2020 – 8:15 PM EST – M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Opening Line: Ravens -1.5 (-110) with BookMaker
It’s absurdly rare to see a reigning Super Bowl champion catching points this early in the season but that’s the state of affairs that presents itself in this marquee week 3 clash that features two of the season’s top SBLV betting prospects, the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. In no uncertain terms, this is the biggest game of the week – if not the entire regular season.
The Chiefs are off to a bright start, winning their first two games of the season against the Texans and Chargers. Although the Chiefs took care of business against the Texans with relative ease, they were challenged by the Chargers in week 2 and needed five quarters to seal the victory on an overtime field-goal. That last performance likely took some of the shine off of the Chiefs in NFL betting markets ahead of their date with the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
The Ravens are off to a great start with back-to-back wins over the Browns and Texans, both times winning convincingly with huge margins. Lamar Jackson’s passing game continues to grow and the Ravens’ offense has even more layers than it had in 2019. To be fair, it’s not surprising the Ravens are laying a field-goal or slightly higher to the Chiefs.
That said, the Ravens are yet to be tested this season by a quality opponent. The Texans might have been such, but after watching the Chiefs eviscerate the defending AFC South champions in week 1, everything about Bill O’Brien’s team demanded a rethink They had clearly regressed this season and were missing DeAndre Hopkins more than they expected.
The Chiefs will be the first real test for the Ravens. How well they perform will give a better indication of how Baltimore stacks up; more specifically, it’s a crucial game for Lamar Jackson, who has yet to get a win over his Chiefs counterpart, Patrick Mahomes. In two career meetings. Jackson is 0-2 SU against the Chiefs with an overtime loss in 2018 and then a 33-28 loss at Arrowhead last season.
In terms of the betting on this game, it’s a right tossup. Either side has a legitimate stake in the victory and whichever way this game falls, the result will surprise nobody. This is a battle of near-equals. However, the Chiefs are the tried and tested side that has proven it can win the big games when it matters most, even if it means doing it ugly. As such, shading the Chiefs plus the points is the lean for this NFL pick here.
Without too much preamble, the following are the quick-fire NFL Picks Against the Spread for the remaining 12 games on the NFL schedule.
Thursday, September 24, 2020 – 8:20 PM EST – TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville
Opening Line: Jaguars -1.5 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 1:00 PM EST – Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Opening Line: Falcons -3 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 1:00 PM EST – Bills Stadium, Buffalo
Opening Line: Bills -3 (-105) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 1:00 PM EST – FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
Opening Line: Browns -4 (-105) with BookMaker
Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings. Michael Hickey/Getty Images/AFP
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 1:00 PM EST – U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Opening Line: Titans -1 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 1:00 PM EST – Gillette Stadium, Foxboro
Opening Line: Patriots -5.5 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 1:00 PM EST – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Opening Line: Niners -6.5 (-105) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 1:00 PM EST – Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Opening Line: Eagles -5.5 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 1:00 PM EST – Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
Opening Line: Steelers -5.5 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 4:05 PM EST – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Opening Line: Colts -6.5 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 4:05 PM EST – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Opening Line: Chargers -6 (-110) with BookMaker
Sunday, September 27, 2020 – 4:25 PM EST – Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.5 (-110) with BookMaker
Nikki Adams joined SBR in 2012 as a sports writer. Her most profitable sport to bet on is NFL but she also enjoys looking for winners in most top American sports, as well as Soccer and Tennis. When she isn’t catching football at the weekend or writing informative and engaging commentary for SBR, she’s hanging out on a tennis court or binging on reality TV.
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Week 2 was a week of chalk, following up a wild and unpredictable Week 1. Between the Bears and the Vikings, we picked the wrong NFC North team to lose in two close games, but otherwise, the picks straight up were solid, and the predictions against the spread were smashing.
Now that we have some good early season results, we'll track them with our "Stats of the Week" below again. But what we did last week has little meaning or importance in trying to get things right this week.
Week 3 definitely doesn't lack for marquee games with quarterbacks serving as the headliners. Those levels of elite passing duels also create tougher matchups to call.
Even though we're doing well ATS, keep in mind these picks are "for entertainment purposes only." The point spreads come courtesy of Sports Insider:
The Chiefs have had more issues with run defense and the Ravens will try to exploit that with Lamar Jackson and their three talented backs, Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Baltimore will try to win with ball control, but Kansas City is capable of that, too, with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Both teams will try to hit on big pass plays and exploit the middle of the field. Jackson will do his best with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, but Patrick Mahomes will have more success doing so with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Mahomes will pick his good spots to run, too, to add to outplaying Jackson on the latter's home turf in prime time.
The Dolphins played a lot better offensively in Week 2 but are still 0-2 with Ryan Fitzpatrick while first-round rookie Tua Tagovailoa waits his turn. For the Jaguars, Gardner Minshew is justifying the decision not to draft or add a veteran QB to replace him. James Robinson is also showing why Leonard Fournette was expendable. The Jaguars will be more effective running and passing everywhere and Fitzpatrick will make more mistakes on the road than Minshew does at home.
The Steelers are doing everything they want offensively with Ben Roethlsiberger and James Conner back healthy together. The Texans are stopping nothing defensively, having being burned through ground and air by the the Chiefs and Ravens. T.J. Watt is playing for a Pittsburgh pass rush in front of a top secondary. J.J. Watt is on an island trying to make up for Houston's big problems. Big advantage Big Ben over Deshaun Watson.
Pick: Steelers win 33-17 and cover the spread.
The Vikings can't be this bad, can they? The Titans can't be this good, can they? Minnesota's defense is in a rough patch, struggling mightily against run and pass over the first two weeks. The key here at home for the Vikings will be a positive game script where they can control the game with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison on the ground and Kirk Cousins is throwing efficiently off play-action. There's nothing scary about Tennessee's overrated defense, either. The streaky Cousins is due to be hot again, while Ryan Tannehill cools off a little on the road as the Vikings rise from desperation mode.
The Bengals and Eagles each are having major offensive line issues for different respective reasons, lacking talent and lacking health. They have two gamers at quarterback in Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz. Both teams are trying to help their QBs with the running game and a lot of throws to the middle of the field. Both teams' linebackers and safeties are vulnerable. The Bengals will have trouble with the two-tight end sets and Miles Sanders' versatile skill set. The Eagles will have trouble inside and Joe Mixon's all-purpose game. The Eagles are the better overall team and will be have desperation at home to survive, but it won't be pretty or comfortable.
Pick: Eagles win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
The 49ers won't have Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman for this game. The Giants, however, have lost Saquon Barkley for the season and likely Sterling Shepard for a while. Nick Mullens vs. Daniel Jones doesn't really sound like a shootout then, does it? Look for the 49ers to survive offensively, assuming George Kittle comes back and Jerick McKinnon keeps on bursting. The Giants will be very limited in moving the ball. The 49ers ripped through the Jets in this same stadium last week and will demand better turf. They win another one at MetLife going away.
Pick: 49ers win 24-13 and cover the spread.
Cam Newton is in a groove running and passing and there's no indication to bet against him vs. Las Vegas in his second home game for the Patriots. The Raiders offer little resistance with their front and back end. Derek Carr will be thwarted by a top secondary and a good pass rush by committee as you can bet Bill Belichick will focus on taking Josh Jacobs and the run-heavy game plan away from Jon Gruden.
Pick: Patriots win 30-20 and cover the spread.
The Browns found their formula of running big time with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, with the occasional big play from Baker Mayfield. They will want to wear down Washington with the run so they can keep Chase Young and the Football Team's pass rush at bay vs. Mayfield. Dwayne Haskins is playing better, but there's not much reliable around him in a hostile road environment, back near his college stomping grounds at Ohio State. 
Pick: Browns win 34-20 and cover the spread.
The Rams are unfazed by cross-country travel under Sean McVay and will try to build on winning at Philadelphia last week. But this is a much sturdier opponent, with a red-hot Josh Allen and a diverse offense. Jalen Ramsey can't cover both Stefon Diggs and John Brown, when Aaron Donald gets after Allen, he can use his legs on scrambles and designed runs to get out of trouble. Jared Goff will keep trying to work the middle, but he'll face more consistent pocket pressure than Allen.
Pick: Bills win 23-20 and cover the spread.
The Falcons ran into the blowout buzzsaw of Russell Wilson and comeback c
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