Next stop Austria

Nothing will be the same after this election. 2016 has seen a paradigm shift in American politics. And it will see a paradigm shift in Austrian politics. We can already say that now, one week before Austria finally elects its new president. Because whoever wins the final round, Austria's president will be a third party candidate for the first time in it's history.

## How the Austrian election is different

The whole world was watching when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. Austria is of course less important than the United States of America. Austria only has 8 million inhabitants, about 3% of what the US has. Austria is a small country and it has delegated some of its independence to the European Union. The Austrian president also has less power over domestic politics than the American president. In addition, Austria's presidents have also chosen not to use most of the power they do have. While American presidents have resorted to executive orders for bypassing congress, Austrian presidents have not even used their constitutional power for dismissing dysfunctional governments. Austria is de facto ruled by political parties. Both the government and the parlament are under direct orders from party headquarters. The president neither proposes policies nor choses "his" government. He could. But never did. That's all done by unelected party officials and it's usually the result of legendary Austrian consensus building: Two or more parties talk behind closed doors and they only come out with any proposals once they have reached some sort of compromise. The president is expected to sign off on all of that. But he still has an important role. Officially, Austrian governments are sworn in by the president. He can refuse to accept some new government. And one of the candidates has announced that he will use this power.

## How Austria is like the US

The old left and the old right are quickly disintegrating. Donald Trump is in the process of tearing down the old Republican establishment and creating a new center-right alliance. As a result of his victory, the Democratic party will fracture as well, with former blue collar moderates and the alt left elite fighting for control. All of this is happening throughout Western democracies, and it is happening in Austria as well. Due to Austria's different election law, it already has a handfull of political parties in parlament. And the kind of political uprising which carried Donald Trump to the presidency has already happened in Austria. The old conservative party has been decimated by the FPÖ and this "Freedom Party" has also broken into former left-leaning blue collar men much like Trump has. This process has been well established for over two decades now and the Freedom Party will most likely win the next election for Austria's parlament in a landslide. Meaning they will have the privilege of chosing their partners for forming the next Austrian government. And that's where Austria's president could come in. If Norbert Hofer wins the final round of Austria's presidential election on December 4, he will confirm whatever consensus was reached by the political parties after the next parliamentary elections. If Alexander van der Bellen becomes president, he will refuse to confirm any government headed by the Freedom Party. One way or another, Austria will get it's political revolution. But the revolution will either be supported by top officials or the country will have to go through some sort of constitutional crisis. At this point, the two candidates are exactly tied in the polls. Austrians are aware of the importance of this election. They are also increasingly demotivated to discuss their preferences. But in a few days, we will find out what they have silently decided to do with their country.