Neorealism Has Prevailed

The past few weeks have been marked by renewed negotiations between Russia and the United States aimed at resolving the Ukrainian conflict. What was once unthinkable under the Biden administration is gradually becoming a reality, yet many remain puzzled by the reasons behind such a dramatic shift. Beyond the obvious factors—such as the successful advances of Russian forces, particularly in the Kursk region, across the entire front, and the evident manpower challenges faced by the Ukrainian army—there are deeper, perceptual reasons rooted in the worldview of the decision-makers involved in this conflict.

The Biden administration consistently overlooked Russia’s national interests and core security concerns when formulating policies regarding U.S.-Ukraine relations. By approaching international relations through the lens of the neoliberal paradigm of a rules-based order, the U.S. dismissed Russia’s legitimate security apprehensions regarding its borders. This ultimately led to the launch of the special military operation and the protracted military conflict that followed.

In contrast, the Trump administration views the world through the prism of neorealism, which enables it to better understand Vladimir Putin’s perspective and identify common ground. This shift in approach is precisely what has facilitated the rapid progress in negotiations—and, indeed, the very fact that these talks are taking place at all. The latest round of discussions has already yielded tangible results, including a cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure, a promising step toward a ceasefire and the initiation of peace talks.

Equally noteworthy is the dramatic reversal in U.S.-Russia relations. In just a few months, the two nations have moved from the brink of complete diplomatic rupture to a gradual restoration of ties, including preparations for hockey matches between clubs from both countries. Strategic cooperation in areas such as nuclear arms control and the Middle East peace process, as well as discussions on economic partnership, are now back on the table.

In my view, this shift in perspective by one of the world’s superpowers could bring about significant positive changes in contemporary international relations. It may even pave the way for peaceful resolutions in several global hotspots. If these developments materialize over the next four years, it will be fair to say that neorealism has, indeed, prevailed.