Ncaa Spreads Week 1

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More Benny Ricciardi - Aug 24, 2021, 5:35 PM EDT
FTN's Gilles Gallant picks out two of his favorite bets for Week 1 of the 2021 NCAA football season to get money on early.
After watching the Alabama Crimson Tide run through the NCAA football slate in 2020, teams are starting to get ready for the 2021 season. Even though we're still in July, it’s never too early to start digging into matchups and NCAA Week 1 odds. 
The first game of the NCAA football season kicks off Saturday, August 28, and now is the time to study some early betting lines for the opening week. COVID-19 kind of ravaged the 2020 NCAA season, and while some teams played incomplete schedules (if they even played at all), it seems to be all systems go for programs across the country in 2021.
Part of this betting strategy is to jump and/or wait on some spreads for Week 1 odds in the NCAA before the general public remembers football is coming. The goal is to get closing line value and get the best possible number for whichever side you choose. For football betting, this is imperative for long term success.
Before I identify two key games I’m monitoring for line movement, check out the full NCAA Football Week 1 odds if you want to tail these bets.
Here are two NCAA spreads from Week 1 I’m following and/or betting before the lines start to move at places like BetMGM Sportsbook:
After a barnburner of a shootout last year with the Hokies, North Carolina is going back to Virginia Tech this year. The Tar Heels opened as 6-point favorites, but the line has since moved to -5. I’m suggesting you grab the Tar Heels now before the spread moves again as I anticipate this line to shift to -6.5 by kickoff. 
The Tar Heels had one of their best games offensively of the season last year vs. V-Tech, putting up 56 points and just under 400 yards rushing. Each year Mack Brown has been coach of the Tar Heels, their win record and performance has steadily improved. UNC finished 8-4 in 2020 and made it to the Orange Bowl before getting walloped by Texas A&M. With Heisman Trophy hopeful QB Sam Howell under center, this offense is explosive (ranked ninth in points per game last year) and UNC should win this game by double-digits. 
The Hokies defense leaves a lot to be desired and while they’ll likely put up a fight playing in front of their home fans, the fact remains they gave up 35 or more points in five of their last six games to close the 2020 season. Not good, Bob!
This is one where bettors should actually wait until closer to kickoff before trying to fade Alabama. The spread should move closer into the Crimson Tide’s favor as more public money comes in on them and sportsbooks will need to shift the line. I’ll probably get hammered for fading ‘Bama in any way shape or form but I expect this spread to move closer to -18.5 by Sept. 3. That said, for a Week 1 game and other betting circumstances, even +17.5 feels like too many points to give to the Miami Hurricanes on their home field.
The Crimson Tide are essentially an NFL talent factory, but we can’t just gloss over that nearly every top offensive skill-position player left the program in the 2021 NFL Draft. New QB starter Bryce Young is largely unproven and will be starting his first game in Miami. Alabama has gotten better recently with the evaluation of quarterbacks, but it wasn’t that long ago that QB was typically the weakness on the Tide’s roster.
The WR starters of John Metchie III and Slide Bolden are going to be impactful as Bama's top two wideouts but again, most of their production so far in college has been as secondary receivers, not as the top dogs.
The key to this bet is how much of an improvement did D’Eriq King make in the offseason. The Hurricanes QB was electric when he wasn’t playing against ranked teams but when he actually faced high-end competition in the ACC like Clemson or North Carolina, he looked like he didn’t belong on the same field.
With Miami being fully healthy and getting an entire offseason to study and breakdown tape on Alabama tendencies, I predict the Tide getting a scrap of a game from the Hurricanes and hanging onto win instead of blowing them out like the spread indicates.
Known as the “NFL Touchdown Prop God”, Gilles Gallant brings his years of betting experience and wealth of sports knowledge to the FTN family. Hailing from Canada and known as @GDAWG5000 on Twitter, he is an expert in NFL, NBA, MLB, college hoops and any bet that offers plus money. Bonne Chance!
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Believe it or not, we are less than 100 days away from the start of the 2021 college football season.
Things will be a lot more normal next season. All FBS teams will start their seasons generally in the same timeframe. No more conference-only schedules. No more Notre Dame in the ACC. Fans in the stands. Normalcy.
And like in years past, the season technically kicks off with Week Zero on Aug. 28 with four FBS vs. FBS matchups, including Nebraska at Illinois and Hawaii at UCLA. Things get a lot more interesting the following week as most of the country begins play.
There are several marquee matchups that weekend, extending all the way through Monday night. BetMGM has posted opening point spreads for many of them, as well as some of the top games throughout the rest of the season.
Let’s look at some of the point spreads that caught our eye in Week 1.
Games on Saturday, Sept. 4 unless otherwise noted. All odds from BetMGM.
North Carolina has one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in Sam Howell and opens as nearly a touchdown-favorite over Virginia Tech. It should be a raucous environment at Lane Stadium and an early test for the Tar Heels, who have been ascending under Mack Brown and are looking to become legitimate ACC contenders.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has had a losing record in two of the last three seasons, putting Justin Fuente in hot seat discussions. The Hokies are just 2-5 against the spread as a home underdog under Fuente, including 0-4 when an underdog of more than six points. UNC is 3-4 ATS as a road favorite since Brown returned to Chapel Hill.
Week 1 is headlined by this showdown in Charlotte in what should be a matchup of two top five teams. Georgia’s streak of three straight SEC East titles came to an end last year, but the Bulldogs really seemed to find their stride offensively once USC transfer JT Daniels was inserted into the lineup at quarterback.
Speaking of quarterbacks, Clemson will no longer have Trevor Lawrence and will likely turn to DJ Uiagalelei as the starter in 2021. Uiagalelei performed admirably when Lawrence was sidelined last season, but will now have the chance to lead the offense in a game that could have College Football Playoff implications.
This will be an interesting point spread to monitor as the season inches closer. Clemson hasn’t been a favorite of three points or fewer since it faced Ohio State in the 2019 CFP semifinals.
Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei (5) warms up for the team's NCAA college football game against Notre Dame on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020, in South Bend, Ind. (Matt Cashore/Pool Photo via AP)
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The 2020 season was difficult for both Penn State and Wisconsin. PSU was ranked in the top 10 when it began play but surprisingly lost its first five games. The Nittany Lions won their final four to finish at a more respectable 4-5, but James Franklin’s program is looking to put 2020 in the rearview mirror and return to being a Big Ten contender in 2021.
Wisconsin dealt with a COVID-19 outbreak early in the year and ended up having three of its games canceled. Eventually, the Badgers finished 4-3 as promising young QB Graham Mertz gained some valuable experience. A Week 1 visit from PSU creates an extremely intriguing Big Ten showdown.
Penn State is just 1-8 straight-up as a road underdog under Franklin, but is 4-5 ATS during that span.
Under Nick Saban, Alabama has consistently opened its seasons with neutral site games against Power Five opponents. Things have not gone well for those opponents. Alabama is 10-0 in those games with a 9-1 mark against the spread. The only time Alabama did not cover the spread in a neutral site opener was in 2014 when it beat West Virginia by 10 points as a 22-point favorite.
This time around, the Tide open up as 17.5-point favorites against Miami. Despite losing their last two games, the Hurricanes still had a nice season in 2020, finishing 8-3. QB D’Eriq King suffered a serious knee injury in the team’s bowl loss to Oklahoma State. He is expected to be back for the season, but will he be 100 percent?
LSU went from the undefeated national champion in 2019 to a .500 team in 2020. Even with such a steep drop-off, it’s surprising to see LSU as only a two-point favorite to open the 2021 season on the road against UCLA.
UCLA has a 10-21 record in three seasons under Chip Kelly, though the Bruins have shown flashes of improvement over the past two seasons. UCLA went 3-4 last year with its four losses coming by a combined 15 points.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a really exciting player at quarterback for UCLA, but LSU should have a significant talent advantage. It might be a wise decision to jump on this one when LSU is only a two-point favorite.
LSU interim head coach Ed Orgeron greets his players as they enter Tiger Stadium before an NCAA college football game against Missouri in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016. (AP Photo/Max Becherer)
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If Penn State vs. Wisconsin wasn’t enough, here’s another likely Top 25 Week 1 Big Ten game.
The ascendance of Indiana was one of the bigger stories of the 2020 season. The Hoosiers enter the 2021 season with some legitimate expectations. It’s an unfamiliar position, but they are still underdogs on the road in Iowa City, one of the tougher environments in the conference. The Hawkeyes opened the 2020 season with two losses before winning their last six.
Since Tom Allen became head coach in 2017, Indiana is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog. If you’re confident in the Hoosiers, keep an eye on the injury status of IU QB Michael Penix Jr. If he’s ready to roll when the season begins, snagging IU at +3.5 could prove to be good value.
With Ian Book off to the NFL, Notre Dame will have a new quarterback as it opens the 2021 season on the road against Florida State. By most accounts, the two contenders for the role are Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan and sophomore Drew Pyne. Whoever gets the job will go into a difficult environment in Tallahassee.
FSU is itching to get back to its winning ways and the vibes around the program entering Year 2 under Mike Norvell seem positive. Still, there is plenty of work to be done in the rebuilding process and Notre Dame is a team that is especially deep in the trenches. Over the past two seasons, the Irish 3-2 ATS as a double-digit road favorite.
Ole Miss is getting a lot of love here from the oddsmakers entering its second season under Lane Kiffin. The Rebels went 5-5 last year, but put up eye-popping numbers on offense.
Louisville, meanwhile, is coming off a 4-7 season and some offseason controversy stemming from coach Scott Satterfield interviewing with South Carolina after saying it was a job he had no interest in. That’s not the easiest thing to bounce back from, and a spread of 7.5 feels appropriate given what Satterfield inherited from Bobby Petrino at Louisville just two years ago.
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