Ncaa Championship Point Spread

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by Jimmy Boyd in College Basketball
I’ve taken some time to put together a history of the points spreads for every Final Four matchup and NCAA Championship Game. This data goes back to when the field expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. I’ve included the seeds of each team, the spread and the ATS winner for all games where a line was accessible. We were unable to locate the lines for the Final Four games before the 2002-03 season.
These tables are a great way to look back over history and relive some of the biggest upsets. Connecticut’s 63-53 win over Florida in the 2014 tourney marked the end of an impressive run for favorites. It was the first upset in the semifinals since Michigan State knocked off UConn 82-73 as a 4.5-point dog in 2009.
Another interesting note is that only five times since 2003 has a Final Four team been favored by seven or more points. The dog has covered three of the four in this spot.
As far as the Championship Game, the biggest upset based on the spread since 1985 is Connecticut’s 77-74 win over Duke. They were a 9.5-point underdog back in 1994. One of the interesting things to note about that matchup is that both teams were a No. 1 seed. The next biggest spread during this stretch when two No. 1 seeds met in the title game was Florida -4 over Ohio State in 2007.
Connecticut’s not the only champion that won despite not getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers. Kansas (1988) and Villanova (1985) both won the title as 8-point underdogs. Arizona pulled off the upset as a 7-point dog in 1997.
Only once since the field has expanded to 64 teams has a team been listed as a double-digit favorite in the championship game. That honor belongs to Kentucky, who was a massive 14-point favorite over Syracuse in 1996. The Wildcats would go on to win the title, but the Orange covered the number in a 67-76 defeat.
We have a lot more on tournament history for those interested:
Villanova (2) vs. North Carolina (1)
Michigan St (2) vs. N. Carolina (1)
Michigan (3) vs. Loyola-Chicago (11)
North Carolina (1) vs. Syracuse (10)
Michigan St. (2) vs. Connecticut (1)
N. Carolina (1) vs. Michigan St (5)
Mississippi St (5) vs. Syracuse (4)
Memphis State (2) vs. Villanova (8)

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