Ncaa Basketball Championship Point Spread

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NCAA Tournament Championship Game History
The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament determines winner of the national championship of the major college basketball teams in Division 1. The event takes place over a three-week period in March and April with schools facing off into a single elimination bracket.
The tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 with four 16-team regional brackets.
The field grew by one team in 2001 with an opening round game determining who would advance to the first round. In 2011, three more squads were added as two games took place in the restructured first round of the tournament on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The winners of those contests advanced to the second round (formerly the first round).
After those “First Four” outcomes, the field of 68 becomes 64, and the attention picks up on Thursday and Friday with 32 games being played.
The Final Four is determined with the four teams winning each regional meeting for the right to go to the National Championship.
NCAA Championship Game History (1985-Present)
(1) Baylor (+4.5) 86 vs. (1) Gonzaga 70
(1) Virginia (-1.5) 85 vs. (3) Texas Tech 77 (OT)
(1) Villanova (-6.5) 79 vs. (3) Michigan 62
(1) North Carolina (-1.5) 71 vs. (1) Gonzaga 65
(2) Villanova (+2) 77 vs. (1) North Carolina 74
(1) Duke (+1) 68 vs. (1) Wisconsin 63
(7) Connecticut (+2.5) 60 vs. (8) Kentucky 54
(1) Louisville (-4) 82 vs. (4) Michigan 76
(1) Kentucky (-6.5) 67 vs. (2) Kansas 59
(3) Connecticut (-3) 53 vs. (8) Butler 41
(1) North Carolina (-7.5) 89 vs. (2) Michigan State 72
(1) Kansas (+2) 75 vs. (1) Memphis 68 (OT)
(1) Florida (-4) 84 vs. (1) Ohio State 75
(3) Florida (-1) 73 vs. (2) UCLA 57
(1) North Carolina (-2) 75 vs. (1) Illinois 70
(2) Connecticut (-5) 82 vs. (3) Georgia Tech 73
(3) Syracuse (+5.5) 81 vs. (2) Kansas 78
(1) Maryland (-7.5) 64 vs. (5) Indiana 52
(1) Duke (+4) 82 vs. (2) Arizona 72
(1) Michigan State (-4) 89 vs. (5) Florida 76
(1) Connecticut (+9.5) 77 vs. (1) Duke 74
(2) Kentucky (-3.5) 78 vs. (3) Utah 69
(4) Arizona (+7) 84 vs. (1) Kentucky 79 (OT)
(1) Kentucky (-14) 76 vs. (4) Syracuse 67
(1) UCLA (-3) 89 vs. (2) Arkansas 78
(1) Arkansas (-6) 76 vs. (2) Duke 72
(1) North Carolina (-2.5) 77 vs. (1) Michigan 71
(1) Duke (-5.5) 71 vs. (6) Michigan 51
(3) Michigan (-2) 80 vs. (3) Seton Hall 79 (OT)
(6) Kansas (+8) 83 vs. (1) Oklahoma 79
(1) Indiana (-4.5) 74 vs. (2) Syracuse 73
(2) Louisville (+1) 72 vs. (1) Duke 69
(8) Villanova (+9) 66 vs. (1) Georgetown 64
* There was no line on this game due to no wagering on Nevada schools in 1990
Betting Results - Favorites vs. Underdogs - Total (Over-Under)
In the 2021 NCAA Tournament, top overall seed Gonzaga went into the championship game with a perfect record and the school from Spokane finally got stopped. The winner, Baylor, dominated the Bulldogs for a wire-to-wire 86-70 victory. The Bears cashed as underdogs (+4.5), earning the school its first championship. It was the first championship for the Big 12 since Kansas cut down the nets in the 2008 event.
Prior to the draft, the Baylor Bears were listed as a 5/1 betting choice to win the NCAA Tournament in the futures market.
The 2020 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The Kansas Jayhawks were listed as the top contenders (+450) to win the event, followed by Gonzaga and Baylor at 8/1 odds.
In 2019, Virginia claimed its first-ever national championship on the hardwood in an overtime win against Texas Tech, a team making its first appearance in the title game. The OT battle in the championship final was the first since 2008 when Kansas topped Memphis. It was also the third time an ACC team was crowned champ (Duke twice, Virginia once) in four times the city of Minneapolis has hosted the Final Four.
The Cavaliers started the season as an 18/1 choice to cut down the nets in March but prior to first round tournament action, the consensus future price on UVA was +700.
In 2018, Villanova rolled to a 79-62 victory over Michigan as a big favorite (-6.5), the largest spread in the title game since 2010. The Wildcats claimed their third title since 1985, and second in the past three seasons. They also ended up winning each of their NCAA Tournament games by double-digit points.
The Wildcats were expected to contend all season long and they began the tournament as 11/2 betting favorites. It was the second straight year that the tournament favorites captured the championship.
In 2017, North Carolina stopped Gonzaga 71-65 as a short favorite (-1.5). The victory for the Tar Heels was defined as "redemption" after the school lost in the 2016 championship to Villanova on a buzzer-beater.
The Tar Heels were listed between 5/1 and 6/1 in most futures betting markets.
In 2016, Villanova knocked off North Carolina 77-74 on a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer. It was the first national championship for the Wildcats since 1985, when the tournament began.
The Wildcats were 20/1 in the preseason and their odds were as high as 15/1 entering the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
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I’ve taken some time to put together a history of the points spreads for every Final Four matchup and NCAA Championship Game. This data goes back to when the field expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. I’ve included the seeds of each team, the spread and the ATS winner for all games where a line was accessible. We were unable to locate the lines for the Final Four games before the 2002-03 season.
These tables are a great way to look back over history and relive some of the biggest upsets. Connecticut’s 63-53 win over Florida in the 2014 tourney marked the end of an impressive run for favorites. It was the first upset in the semifinals since Michigan State knocked off UConn 82-73 as a 4.5-point dog in 2009.
Another interesting note is that only five times since 2003 has a Final Four team been favored by seven or more points. The dog has covered three of the four in this spot.
As far as the Championship Game, the biggest upset based on the spread since 1985 is Connecticut’s 77-74 win over Duke. They were a 9.5-point underdog back in 1994. One of the interesting things to note about that matchup is that both teams were a No. 1 seed. The next biggest spread during this stretch when two No. 1 seeds met in the title game was Florida -4 over Ohio State in 2007.
Connecticut’s not the only champion that won despite not getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers. Kansas (1988) and Villanova (1985) both won the title as 8-point underdogs. Arizona pulled off the upset as a 7-point dog in 1997.
Only once since the field has expanded to 64 teams has a team been listed as a double-digit favorite in the championship game. That honor belongs to Kentucky, who was a massive 14-point favorite over Syracuse in 1996. The Wildcats would go on to win the title, but the Orange covered the number in a 67-76 defeat.
Villanova (2) vs. North Carolina (1)
Michigan St (2) vs. N. Carolina (1)
Michigan (3) vs. Loyola-Chicago (11)
North Carolina (1) vs. Syracuse (10)
Michigan St. (2) vs. Connecticut (1)
N. Carolina (1) vs. Michigan St (5)
Mississippi St (5) vs. Syracuse (4)
Memphis State (2) vs. Villanova (8)
We have a lot more on tournament history for those interested:

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